Atten Babler Ethanol FX Indices – Jun ’16
The Atten Babler Commodities Ethanol Foreign Exchange (FX) Indices were mixed during May ’16. The USD/Domestic Ethanol Importer FX Index declined for the fourth consecutive month, finishing at a nine month low, however the USD/Ethanol Producer FX Index increased for the first time in four months.
Global Ethanol Producers:
Major ethanol producers are led by the U.S., followed by Brazil, the EU-28, China, India and Canada.
USD/Ethanol Producer FX Index:
The USD/Ethanol Producer FX Index finished lower for the fourth consecutive month during May ’16, declining 0.3 points to a nine month low value of 26.1. The USD/Ethanol Producer FX Index has declined 4.0 points over the past six months but remains up 19.9 points since the beginning of 2014. A strong USD/Ethanol Producer FX Index reduces the competitiveness of U.S. ethanol relative to other major producing regions (represented in green in the Global Ethanol Producers chart), ultimately resulting in less foreign demand, all other factors being equal. USD appreciation against the Brazilian real has accounted for the majority of the gains since the beginning of 2014.
Appreciation against the USD within the USD/Ethanol Producer FX Index during May ’16 was led by gains by the Brazilian real. USD appreciation was exhibited against the euro, Canadian dollar, Chinese yuan renminbi and Indian rupee.
U.S. Ethanol Export Destinations:
Major destinations for U.S. ethanol exports are led by Canada, followed by the Philippines, Brazil, the United Arab Emirates, Peru and Mexico.
USD/Domestic Ethanol Importer FX Index:
The USD/Domestic Ethanol Importer FX Index increased for the first time in four month during May ’16, finishing up 0.8 points to a value of 11.4. The USD/Domestic Ethanol Importer FX Index remains down 1.6 points over the past six months but has increased 20.0 points since the beginning of 2014. A strong USD/Domestic Ethanol Importer FX Index results in less purchasing power for the traditional buyers of U.S. ethanol (represented in red in the U.S. Ethanol Export Destinations chart), ultimately resulting in less foreign demand, all other factors being equal. USD appreciation against the Canadian dollar and the Brazilian real has accounted for the majority of the gains since the beginning of 2014.
USD appreciation within the USD/Domestic Ethanol Importer FX Index during May ’16 was led by gains against the Canadian dollar, followed by gains against the Mexican peso, Philippine peso and Jamaican dollar. USD declines were exhibited against the Brazilian real.