Global Dairy Trade Results Update – 11/19/19
Executive Summary
Dairy product prices continued to increase during the GDT event held Nov 19th. Highlights from the most recent auction include:
The GDT Price Index finished 26.4% above previous year price levels at the Nov 19th event, increasing on a YOY basis for the tenth consecutive event. The GDT Price Index also finished 12.5% above the three year average price for the second auction of November, finishing above three year average figures for the 22nd consecutive event. The GDT Price Index finished at a six year seasonal high level, overall.
Within the latest auction, increases in prices were led by rennet casein (+5.6%), followed by skim milk powder (+3.3%), cheddar cheese (+2.5%), whole milk powder (+2.2%) and lactose (+1.3%). The increases more than offset lower butter (-1.3%) and anhydrous milkfat (-1.5%) prices. Butter milk powder and sweet whey powder were not sold at the Nov 19th event.
The table below provides a summary of the most recent GDT weighted average winning prices for key products. Butter has been adjusted to 80% butterfat and skim milk powder (SMP) has been adjusted to 35% protein content (equivalent to U.S. nonfat dry milk) in the $/lb columns below. CME spot and average futures prices are based on Nov 18th figures. CME average futures prices are weighted average prices based on the most recently reported percentage of the total quantity sold in each GDT contract period.
Total quantities sold for all products at the Nov 19th event of 37,968 MT declined 1.2% from the previous event while finishing 11.6% lower on a YOY basis. The YOY decline in total quantities sold was the fifth experienced in a row.
Volumes sold for all products within the November auctions declined 1.0% from average October volumes sold while finishing 10.2% below last year’s average volumes sold for the month of November. Nov ’19 volumes sold for all products remained 11.0% above three year average seasonal figures, however.
U.S. butter prices remained at a significant premium to GDT winning prices at the Nov 19th event as GDT butter prices declined to a five auction low. U.S. spot butter prices are currently trading at a 15.5% premium to GDT prices while CME futures prices traded at a 17.2% premium to GDT prices from Dec ’19 – Apr ’20. Butter was not sold at the GDT auction for Contract 6 (May ’20).
U.S. cheddar cheese prices also remained at a premium to GDT winning prices at the Nov 19th event, despite GDT cheddar cheese prices rebounding to a three auction high. U.S. spot cheddar cheese prices are currently trading at a 19.8% premium to GDT prices while CME futures prices traded at an 8.2% premium to GDT prices from Dec ’19 – Apr ’20. Cheddar cheese was not sold at the GDT auction for Contract 6 (May ’20).
U.S. nonfat dry milk (NFDM) futures prices remained at a discount to GDT winning prices at the Nov 19th event, however, as GDT SMP prices increased to a five year high level. U.S. spot NFDM prices are currently trading at a 13.6% discount to GDT prices while CME futures prices traded at a 13.2% discount to GDT prices from Dec ’19 – Apr ’20. SMP was not sold at the GDT auction for Contract 6 (May ’20).
- The GDT Price Index increased 1.7% at the Nov 19th event, finishing higher for the fifth consecutive event and reaching a 12 auction high, overall.
- Increases in prices within the Nov 19th event were led by rennet casein, followed by skim milk powder, cheddar cheese, whole milk powder and lactose. Skim milk powder prices reached a five year high level throughout the Nov 19th event while whole milk powder prices increased to a 35 month high level. Butter prices declined to a five auction low level throughout the Nov 19th event, however.
- Total quantities sold for all products at the Nov 19th event declined 1.2% from the previous auction while remaining lower on a YOY basis for the fifth consecutive event. Volumes sold for all products within the November auctions finished 10.2% below last year’s average volumes sold for the month of November but remained 11.0% above three year average seasonal figures.
The GDT Price Index finished 26.4% above previous year price levels at the Nov 19th event, increasing on a YOY basis for the tenth consecutive event. The GDT Price Index also finished 12.5% above the three year average price for the second auction of November, finishing above three year average figures for the 22nd consecutive event. The GDT Price Index finished at a six year seasonal high level, overall.
Within the latest auction, increases in prices were led by rennet casein (+5.6%), followed by skim milk powder (+3.3%), cheddar cheese (+2.5%), whole milk powder (+2.2%) and lactose (+1.3%). The increases more than offset lower butter (-1.3%) and anhydrous milkfat (-1.5%) prices. Butter milk powder and sweet whey powder were not sold at the Nov 19th event.
The table below provides a summary of the most recent GDT weighted average winning prices for key products. Butter has been adjusted to 80% butterfat and skim milk powder (SMP) has been adjusted to 35% protein content (equivalent to U.S. nonfat dry milk) in the $/lb columns below. CME spot and average futures prices are based on Nov 18th figures. CME average futures prices are weighted average prices based on the most recently reported percentage of the total quantity sold in each GDT contract period.
Total quantities sold for all products at the Nov 19th event of 37,968 MT declined 1.2% from the previous event while finishing 11.6% lower on a YOY basis. The YOY decline in total quantities sold was the fifth experienced in a row.
Volumes sold for all products within the November auctions declined 1.0% from average October volumes sold while finishing 10.2% below last year’s average volumes sold for the month of November. Nov ’19 volumes sold for all products remained 11.0% above three year average seasonal figures, however.
U.S. butter prices remained at a significant premium to GDT winning prices at the Nov 19th event as GDT butter prices declined to a five auction low. U.S. spot butter prices are currently trading at a 15.5% premium to GDT prices while CME futures prices traded at a 17.2% premium to GDT prices from Dec ’19 – Apr ’20. Butter was not sold at the GDT auction for Contract 6 (May ’20).
U.S. cheddar cheese prices also remained at a premium to GDT winning prices at the Nov 19th event, despite GDT cheddar cheese prices rebounding to a three auction high. U.S. spot cheddar cheese prices are currently trading at a 19.8% premium to GDT prices while CME futures prices traded at an 8.2% premium to GDT prices from Dec ’19 – Apr ’20. Cheddar cheese was not sold at the GDT auction for Contract 6 (May ’20).
U.S. nonfat dry milk (NFDM) futures prices remained at a discount to GDT winning prices at the Nov 19th event, however, as GDT SMP prices increased to a five year high level. U.S. spot NFDM prices are currently trading at a 13.6% discount to GDT prices while CME futures prices traded at a 13.2% discount to GDT prices from Dec ’19 – Apr ’20. SMP was not sold at the GDT auction for Contract 6 (May ’20).