U.S. Dairy Commercial Disappearance Update – Apr ’20
Executive Summary
U.S. dairy commercial disappearance figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Feb ’20. Highlights from the updated report include:
U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past five months during Feb ’20, finishing down 0.5%. Domestic demand declined 1.8% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 5.0% YOY increase in export demand.
’18-’19 annual commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis declined 0.6% YOY from the record high levels experienced throughout the previous production season, despite domestic demand increasing 2.5%, reaching the highest annual figure on record. ’19-’20 YTD commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis has rebounded by 1.5% throughout the first five months of the production season, despite the most recent decline.
Butter – Disappearance Declines YOY for the Third Time in Four Months, Finishes Down 9.6%
U.S. butter commercial disappearance declined 9.6% on a YOY basis during Feb ’20, finishing lower for the third time in the past four months and reaching a three year seasonal low level. Domestic butter demand declined 9.0% on a YOY basis throughout the month while export demand finished 27.2% lower.
’18-’19 annual butter disappearance finished 2.1% higher YOY, reaching a record high level. Domestic disappearance increased 3.1%, also reaching the highest annual figure on record. ’19-’20 YTD butter disappearance has declined by 3.4% throughout the first five months of the production season, however.
U.S. butter production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures during Feb ’20, resulting in stocks rebounding seasonally to a six month high level. Butter stocks typically reach seasonal low levels throughout the months of November and December, prior to increasing throughout the first half of the calendar year.
Cheese – Disappearance Declines 0.2% YOY on Weak Export Demand
U.S. cheese commercial disappearance declined 0.2% on a YOY basis during Feb ’20, finishing lower for the first time in the past three months. American cheese disappearance declined 2.1% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 1.1% YOY increase in other-than-American cheese disappearance. Cheese export demand declined 8.2% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 0.4% YOY increase in domestic demand.
’18-’19 annual cheese disappearance increased 2.2% to a record annual high as domestic demand increased 2.2%, also reaching the highest figure on record. ’19-’20 YTD cheese disappearance has increased by an additional 0.3% throughout the first five months of the production season, despite the most recent decline.
U.S. cheese production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures during Feb ’20, resulting in stocks increasing to a five month high level.
Dry Whey – Disappearance Declines 26.6% YOY on Weak Domestic Demand
U.S. dry whey commercial disappearance declined 26.6% on a YOY basis during Feb ’20, finishing lower for the first time in the past three months and reaching a record low seasonal level. Domestic dry whey demand declined 48.4% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 22.3% increase in export demand. The YOY decline in domestic dry whey demand was the first experienced throughout the past ten months however the YOY increase in dry whey export demand was the first experienced throughout the past 18 months.
’18-’19 annual dry whey disappearance declined 9.9% YOY from the ten year high level experienced throughout the previous production season, finishing at a four year low level. Domestic disappearance increased 8.6% YOY, however, reaching a three year high level. ’19-’20 YTD dry whey disappearance has rebounded by 5.3% throughout the first five months of the production season, despite the most recent decline.
U.S. dry whey production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures during Feb ’20, resulting in stocks rebounding from the three year low level experienced throughout the previous month.
WPC – Disappearance Declines YOY for the 11th Time in the Past 13 Months, Finishes Down 7.4%
U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) commercial disappearance declined 7.4% on a YOY basis during Feb ’20, finishing lower for the 11th time in the past 13 months. Domestic WPC demand declined 31.0% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 26.1% increase in export demand.
’18-’19 annual WPC disappearance declined 5.9% YOY from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season. Domestic disappearance increased 33.2% YOY, however, reaching a four year high level. ’19-’20 YTD WPC disappearance has declined by an additional 2.2% on a YOY basis throughout the first five months of the production season.
U.S. WPC domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures during Feb ’20, resulting in stocks declining to a five month low level.
NFDM/SMP – Disappearance Declines YOY for the Third Consecutive Month, Finishes Down 7.2%
U.S. nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) commercial disappearance declined 7.2% on a YOY basis during Feb ’20, finishing lower for the third time consecutive month and reaching a three year seasonal low level. Domestic NFDM/SMP demand declined 14.4% on a YOY basis throughout the month while export demand finished 4.7% lower YOY.
’18-’19 annual NFDM/SMP disappearance declined 4.2% YOY from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season, despite finishing 5.1% higher on a YOY basis throughout the final third of the production season. Domestic disappearance increased 5.8%, rebounding from the 11 year low experienced throughout the previous production season. ’19-’20 YTD NFDM/SMP disappearance has rebounded by 3.1% throughout the first five months of the production season, despite the most recent decline.
U.S. NFDM/SMP production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures during Feb ’20, resulting in stocks increasing to a 26 month high level.
On an absolute basis, Feb ’20 domestic commercial disappearance increased most significantly on a YOY basis for cheese while declining most significantly for dry whey. International commercial disappearance increased most significantly on a YOY basis for dry whey while cheese export demand finished most significantly lower YOY. Feb ’20 declines in total commercial disappearance were widespread across products.
Fluid Milk – Total Milk Sales Remain at a Record Low Seasonal Level, Finish Down 2.5% YOY
U.S. fluid milk sales declined on a YOY basis for the 19th time in the past 20 months during Dec ’19, finishing down 2.5% and reaching a record low seasonal level. Sales of fat-free milk sales remained particularly weak, declining by 13.9% on a YOY basis and reaching the lowest monthly figure on record.
’18-’19 annual total fluid milk sales declined to a record low level for the tenth consecutive year, finishing down 1.5%, as whole milk sales increased to an 11 year high but fat-free milk sales declined to the lowest figure on record, down over 50% from levels experienced ten years ago. ’19-’20 YTD total fluid milk sales have declined by an additional 4.7% on a YOY basis throughout the first quarter of the production season.
Fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk declined on a YOY basis for the fifth consecutive month during Dec ’19, finishing down 1.2%. ’18-’19 annual total fat consumed within fluid milk declined 0.3% on a YOY basis, reaching a four year low level, while ’19-’20 YTD figures have declined by an additional 3.9% on a YOY basis throughout the first quarter of the production season.
- U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products declined 1.3% YOY on a milk-fat basis and 0.5% YOY on a skim-solids basis during Feb ’20. Domestic demand declined 0.8% YOY on a milk-fat basis and 1.8% YOY on a skim-solids basis throughout the month.
- Feb ’20 YOY declines in dairy commercial disappearance were widespread across products. U.S. butter disappearance declined on a YOY basis for the third time in the past four months, finishing down 9.6%, while U.S. cheese and dry whey disappearance each finished lower on a YOY basis for the first time in the past three months, declining by 0.2% and 26.6%, respectively. Whey protein concentrate declined on a YOY basis for the 11th time in the past 13 months, finishing down 7.4%, while nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder disappearance declined on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month, finishing down 7.2%.
- U.S. fluid milk sales declined on a YOY basis for the 19th time in the past 20 months during Dec ’19, finishing down 2.5% and reaching a record low seasonal level.
U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past five months during Feb ’20, finishing down 0.5%. Domestic demand declined 1.8% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 5.0% YOY increase in export demand.
’18-’19 annual commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis declined 0.6% YOY from the record high levels experienced throughout the previous production season, despite domestic demand increasing 2.5%, reaching the highest annual figure on record. ’19-’20 YTD commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis has rebounded by 1.5% throughout the first five months of the production season, despite the most recent decline.
Butter – Disappearance Declines YOY for the Third Time in Four Months, Finishes Down 9.6%
U.S. butter commercial disappearance declined 9.6% on a YOY basis during Feb ’20, finishing lower for the third time in the past four months and reaching a three year seasonal low level. Domestic butter demand declined 9.0% on a YOY basis throughout the month while export demand finished 27.2% lower.
’18-’19 annual butter disappearance finished 2.1% higher YOY, reaching a record high level. Domestic disappearance increased 3.1%, also reaching the highest annual figure on record. ’19-’20 YTD butter disappearance has declined by 3.4% throughout the first five months of the production season, however.
U.S. butter production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures during Feb ’20, resulting in stocks rebounding seasonally to a six month high level. Butter stocks typically reach seasonal low levels throughout the months of November and December, prior to increasing throughout the first half of the calendar year.
Cheese – Disappearance Declines 0.2% YOY on Weak Export Demand
U.S. cheese commercial disappearance declined 0.2% on a YOY basis during Feb ’20, finishing lower for the first time in the past three months. American cheese disappearance declined 2.1% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 1.1% YOY increase in other-than-American cheese disappearance. Cheese export demand declined 8.2% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 0.4% YOY increase in domestic demand.
’18-’19 annual cheese disappearance increased 2.2% to a record annual high as domestic demand increased 2.2%, also reaching the highest figure on record. ’19-’20 YTD cheese disappearance has increased by an additional 0.3% throughout the first five months of the production season, despite the most recent decline.
U.S. cheese production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures during Feb ’20, resulting in stocks increasing to a five month high level.
Dry Whey – Disappearance Declines 26.6% YOY on Weak Domestic Demand
U.S. dry whey commercial disappearance declined 26.6% on a YOY basis during Feb ’20, finishing lower for the first time in the past three months and reaching a record low seasonal level. Domestic dry whey demand declined 48.4% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 22.3% increase in export demand. The YOY decline in domestic dry whey demand was the first experienced throughout the past ten months however the YOY increase in dry whey export demand was the first experienced throughout the past 18 months.
’18-’19 annual dry whey disappearance declined 9.9% YOY from the ten year high level experienced throughout the previous production season, finishing at a four year low level. Domestic disappearance increased 8.6% YOY, however, reaching a three year high level. ’19-’20 YTD dry whey disappearance has rebounded by 5.3% throughout the first five months of the production season, despite the most recent decline.
U.S. dry whey production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures during Feb ’20, resulting in stocks rebounding from the three year low level experienced throughout the previous month.
WPC – Disappearance Declines YOY for the 11th Time in the Past 13 Months, Finishes Down 7.4%
U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) commercial disappearance declined 7.4% on a YOY basis during Feb ’20, finishing lower for the 11th time in the past 13 months. Domestic WPC demand declined 31.0% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 26.1% increase in export demand.
’18-’19 annual WPC disappearance declined 5.9% YOY from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season. Domestic disappearance increased 33.2% YOY, however, reaching a four year high level. ’19-’20 YTD WPC disappearance has declined by an additional 2.2% on a YOY basis throughout the first five months of the production season.
U.S. WPC domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures during Feb ’20, resulting in stocks declining to a five month low level.
NFDM/SMP – Disappearance Declines YOY for the Third Consecutive Month, Finishes Down 7.2%
U.S. nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) commercial disappearance declined 7.2% on a YOY basis during Feb ’20, finishing lower for the third time consecutive month and reaching a three year seasonal low level. Domestic NFDM/SMP demand declined 14.4% on a YOY basis throughout the month while export demand finished 4.7% lower YOY.
’18-’19 annual NFDM/SMP disappearance declined 4.2% YOY from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season, despite finishing 5.1% higher on a YOY basis throughout the final third of the production season. Domestic disappearance increased 5.8%, rebounding from the 11 year low experienced throughout the previous production season. ’19-’20 YTD NFDM/SMP disappearance has rebounded by 3.1% throughout the first five months of the production season, despite the most recent decline.
U.S. NFDM/SMP production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures during Feb ’20, resulting in stocks increasing to a 26 month high level.
On an absolute basis, Feb ’20 domestic commercial disappearance increased most significantly on a YOY basis for cheese while declining most significantly for dry whey. International commercial disappearance increased most significantly on a YOY basis for dry whey while cheese export demand finished most significantly lower YOY. Feb ’20 declines in total commercial disappearance were widespread across products.
Fluid Milk – Total Milk Sales Remain at a Record Low Seasonal Level, Finish Down 2.5% YOY
U.S. fluid milk sales declined on a YOY basis for the 19th time in the past 20 months during Dec ’19, finishing down 2.5% and reaching a record low seasonal level. Sales of fat-free milk sales remained particularly weak, declining by 13.9% on a YOY basis and reaching the lowest monthly figure on record.
’18-’19 annual total fluid milk sales declined to a record low level for the tenth consecutive year, finishing down 1.5%, as whole milk sales increased to an 11 year high but fat-free milk sales declined to the lowest figure on record, down over 50% from levels experienced ten years ago. ’19-’20 YTD total fluid milk sales have declined by an additional 4.7% on a YOY basis throughout the first quarter of the production season.
Fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk declined on a YOY basis for the fifth consecutive month during Dec ’19, finishing down 1.2%. ’18-’19 annual total fat consumed within fluid milk declined 0.3% on a YOY basis, reaching a four year low level, while ’19-’20 YTD figures have declined by an additional 3.9% on a YOY basis throughout the first quarter of the production season.