Dairy WASDE Update – Jun ’20
According to the June USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) report, the 2020 U.S. milk production projection was raised 100 million pounds from the previous month on higher than expected cow numbers, rebounding to a 13 month high projected level. 2020 projected milk production equates to a 1.6% YOY increase from 2019 production levels, finishing slightly above ten year average figures. The 2021 milk production projection was raised 800 million pounds from the previous month on higher expected cow numbers and stronger growth in milk per cow yields. 2021 projected milk production equates to a 1.5% YOY increase from 2020 projected levels.
2020 dairy export forecasts were reduced from the previous month on a milk-fat basis on lower anticipated sales of cheese but raised on a skim-solids basis on higher skim milk powder and lactose sales. 2020 dairy import forecasts were raised slightly on both a milk-fat and skim-solids basis. 2021 dairy export forecasts were unchanged from the previous month on both a milk-fat and skim-solids basis while 2021 dairy import forecasts were reduced from the previous month on both a milk-fat and skim-solids basis.
2020 projected dairy export volumes translated to 16.0% of total U.S. milk solids production while import volumes were equivalent to 3.7% of total U.S. milk solids production. 2021 projected dairy export volumes remained at 16.0% of total U.S. milk solids production while import volumes were equivalent to 3.6% of total U.S. milk solids production, down slightly from the 2020 projection. 2021 net dairy trade is projected to rebound to a three year high level but remain below the 2018 record high level.
2020 butter, cheese and nonfat dry milk price forecasts were raised from the previous month on recent price strength and stronger anticipated demand however the 2020 dry whey price forecast was reduced from the previous month. The 2020 Class III milk price forecast of $15.65/cwt was raised $2.30/cwt from the previous forecast while the 2020 Class IV milk price forecast of $13.55/cwt was raised $1.65/cwt. The 2020 All-Milk price forecast of $16.65/cwt was raised $2.10/cwt from the previous forecast but remained 10.5% below 2019 price levels.
2021 butter, cheese and nonfat dry milk price forecasts were also raised from the previous month while the 2021 dry whey price forecast was reduced from the previous month. The 2021 Class III milk price forecast of $15.10/cwt was raised $0.90/cwt from the previous forecast but remained 3.5% below the 2020 projected level while the 2021 Class IV milk price forecast of $13.35/cwt was raised $1.15/cwt from the previous forecast but remained 1.5% below the 2020 projected level. The 2021 All-Milk price forecast of $16.20/cwt was raised $1.20/cwt from the previous forecast but is expected to remain 2.7% below 2020 projected levels, finishing at a 12 year low level.
2020 dairy export forecasts were reduced from the previous month on a milk-fat basis on lower anticipated sales of cheese but raised on a skim-solids basis on higher skim milk powder and lactose sales. 2020 dairy import forecasts were raised slightly on both a milk-fat and skim-solids basis. 2021 dairy export forecasts were unchanged from the previous month on both a milk-fat and skim-solids basis while 2021 dairy import forecasts were reduced from the previous month on both a milk-fat and skim-solids basis.
2020 projected dairy export volumes translated to 16.0% of total U.S. milk solids production while import volumes were equivalent to 3.7% of total U.S. milk solids production. 2021 projected dairy export volumes remained at 16.0% of total U.S. milk solids production while import volumes were equivalent to 3.6% of total U.S. milk solids production, down slightly from the 2020 projection. 2021 net dairy trade is projected to rebound to a three year high level but remain below the 2018 record high level.
2020 butter, cheese and nonfat dry milk price forecasts were raised from the previous month on recent price strength and stronger anticipated demand however the 2020 dry whey price forecast was reduced from the previous month. The 2020 Class III milk price forecast of $15.65/cwt was raised $2.30/cwt from the previous forecast while the 2020 Class IV milk price forecast of $13.55/cwt was raised $1.65/cwt. The 2020 All-Milk price forecast of $16.65/cwt was raised $2.10/cwt from the previous forecast but remained 10.5% below 2019 price levels.
2021 butter, cheese and nonfat dry milk price forecasts were also raised from the previous month while the 2021 dry whey price forecast was reduced from the previous month. The 2021 Class III milk price forecast of $15.10/cwt was raised $0.90/cwt from the previous forecast but remained 3.5% below the 2020 projected level while the 2021 Class IV milk price forecast of $13.35/cwt was raised $1.15/cwt from the previous forecast but remained 1.5% below the 2020 projected level. The 2021 All-Milk price forecast of $16.20/cwt was raised $1.20/cwt from the previous forecast but is expected to remain 2.7% below 2020 projected levels, finishing at a 12 year low level.