U.S. Livestock & Meat Trade Update – Jul ’20
Executive Summary
U.S. livestock and meat trade figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through May ’20. Highlights from the updated report include:
Mexico and Japan have historically been the largest importers of U.S. pork products, accounting for nearly half of the total U.S. pork export volumes throughout the past five years. Combined U.S. pork export volumes destined to Mexico and Japan have declined by 1.3% on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months, however. Throughout the past 12 months, YOY increases in U.S. pork exports have been led by product destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan, while shipments destined to South Korea have declined most significantly on a YOY basis over the period.
U.S. pork import volumes finished higher on a YOY basis for the first time in the past 25 months during May ’20, increasing by 9.4% and reaching a 14 month high level, overall. The increase in pork export volumes more than offset the increase in import volumes, resulted in U.S. net pork trade finishing up 22.8% YOY during May ’20, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in net pork trade was the 13th experienced in a row but the smallest experienced throughout the past seven months.
’18-’19 annual net pork trade increased 5.6% YOY, finishing at a record high level for the second consecutive year. ’19-’20 YTD net pork trade has increased an additional 34.4% on a YOY basis throughout the first two thirds of the production season.
Beef & Veal – Exports Decline to an 11 Year Seasonal Low Level, Net Trade Remains Negative
U.S. beef & veal export volumes declined on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month during May ’20, finishing down 30.9% and reaching an 11 year seasonal low level. The YOY decline in beef & veal export volumes was the largest experienced throughout the past 15 years on a percentage basis. YOY declines in U.S. beef & veal export volumes were led by shipments destined to Mexico, followed by shipments destined to Japan and South Korea, while export volumes destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan finished most significantly higher on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Japan, South Korea, China, Hong Kong & Taiwan, Mexico and Canada have historically been the largest importers of U.S. beef & veal products, combining to account for nearly 90% of the total U.S. beef & veal export volumes throughout the past five years. Throughout the past 12 months, U.S. beef & veal export volumes destined to South Korea have increased most significantly on a YOY basis, while shipments destined to Mexico have declined most significantly on a YOY basis over the period.
U.S. beef & veal import volumes declined on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month during May ’20, finishing down 9.1% and reaching a three year seasonal low level. Beef & veal import volumes continued to exceed export volumes for the third consecutive month during May ’20, however, resulting in U.S. beef & veal trade finishing at a negative level. May ’20 beef & veal net trade finished at a four year low level, overall.
’18-’19 annual beef & veal net trade finished at a positive level for the second consecutive year however beef & veal net trade remained 54.2% below previous year levels. ’19-’20 YTD net beef & veal trade has declined to a negative level throughout the first two thirds of the production season.
Broilers – Net Trade Declines on a YOY Basis for the First Time in Seven Months, Finishes Down 4.6%
U.S. broiler export volumes finished lower on a YOY basis for the first time in the past seven months throughout May ’20, declining by 4.5%. YOY declines in U.S. broiler export volumes were led by shipments destined to Mexico, while export volumes destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan increased most significantly on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Mexico has historically been the largest importer of U.S. broilers, accounting for over one fifth of the total U.S. broiler export volumes throughout the past five years. Throughout the past 12 months, U.S. broiler export volumes destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan have increased most significantly on a YOY basis, followed by volumes destined to Georgia, while shipments destined to Angola have declined most significantly on a YOY basis over the period.
U.S. broiler import volumes increased on a YOY basis for the fifth time in the past six months during May ’20, finishing up 1.9%. Broiler import volumes remained at insignificant levels relative to export volumes, however, as May ’20 imports amounted to just 1.7% of export volumes. The YOY decline in broiler export volumes, coupled with the YOY increase in import volumes, resulted in U.S. broiler net trade finishing 4.6% lower on a YOY basis during May ’20. The YOY decline in broiler net trade was the first experienced throughout the past seven months.
’18-’19 annual net broiler trade finished up 1.7% YOY, reaching a five year high, despite declines experienced throughout the final months of the production season. ’19-’20 YTD net broiler trade has increased by an additional 3.2% on a YOY basis throughout the first two thirds of the production season, despite the most recent decline.
Combined Net Trade
Overall, combined net trade of U.S. pork, beef and broilers increased on a YOY basis for the seventh consecutive month during May ’20, finishing up 13.3 million pounds, or 1.3%. The YOY increase in combined net trade of U.S. pork, beef and broilers was the smallest experienced throughout the seven month period, however. Combined net trade of U.S. pork, beef and broilers had reached an eight and a half year high growth rate throughout the month of March, prior to declining but remaining positive throughout the past two months of data.
- U.S. net pork trade increased on a YOY basis for the 13th consecutive month during May ’20, finishing up 22.8% and reaching a record high seasonal level. Pork export volumes increased 20.8% on a YOY basis throughout the month, driven higher by continued growth in volumes destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan.
- U.S. beef & veal export volumes declined to an 11 year seasonal low level throughout May ’20, finishing 30.9% below previous year levels. Net beef & veal trade finished at a negative level for the third consecutive month.
- U.S. net broiler trade declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past seven months, finishing down 4.6%.
Mexico and Japan have historically been the largest importers of U.S. pork products, accounting for nearly half of the total U.S. pork export volumes throughout the past five years. Combined U.S. pork export volumes destined to Mexico and Japan have declined by 1.3% on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months, however. Throughout the past 12 months, YOY increases in U.S. pork exports have been led by product destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan, while shipments destined to South Korea have declined most significantly on a YOY basis over the period.
U.S. pork import volumes finished higher on a YOY basis for the first time in the past 25 months during May ’20, increasing by 9.4% and reaching a 14 month high level, overall. The increase in pork export volumes more than offset the increase in import volumes, resulted in U.S. net pork trade finishing up 22.8% YOY during May ’20, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in net pork trade was the 13th experienced in a row but the smallest experienced throughout the past seven months.
’18-’19 annual net pork trade increased 5.6% YOY, finishing at a record high level for the second consecutive year. ’19-’20 YTD net pork trade has increased an additional 34.4% on a YOY basis throughout the first two thirds of the production season.
Beef & Veal – Exports Decline to an 11 Year Seasonal Low Level, Net Trade Remains Negative
U.S. beef & veal export volumes declined on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month during May ’20, finishing down 30.9% and reaching an 11 year seasonal low level. The YOY decline in beef & veal export volumes was the largest experienced throughout the past 15 years on a percentage basis. YOY declines in U.S. beef & veal export volumes were led by shipments destined to Mexico, followed by shipments destined to Japan and South Korea, while export volumes destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan finished most significantly higher on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Japan, South Korea, China, Hong Kong & Taiwan, Mexico and Canada have historically been the largest importers of U.S. beef & veal products, combining to account for nearly 90% of the total U.S. beef & veal export volumes throughout the past five years. Throughout the past 12 months, U.S. beef & veal export volumes destined to South Korea have increased most significantly on a YOY basis, while shipments destined to Mexico have declined most significantly on a YOY basis over the period.
U.S. beef & veal import volumes declined on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month during May ’20, finishing down 9.1% and reaching a three year seasonal low level. Beef & veal import volumes continued to exceed export volumes for the third consecutive month during May ’20, however, resulting in U.S. beef & veal trade finishing at a negative level. May ’20 beef & veal net trade finished at a four year low level, overall.
’18-’19 annual beef & veal net trade finished at a positive level for the second consecutive year however beef & veal net trade remained 54.2% below previous year levels. ’19-’20 YTD net beef & veal trade has declined to a negative level throughout the first two thirds of the production season.
Broilers – Net Trade Declines on a YOY Basis for the First Time in Seven Months, Finishes Down 4.6%
U.S. broiler export volumes finished lower on a YOY basis for the first time in the past seven months throughout May ’20, declining by 4.5%. YOY declines in U.S. broiler export volumes were led by shipments destined to Mexico, while export volumes destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan increased most significantly on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Mexico has historically been the largest importer of U.S. broilers, accounting for over one fifth of the total U.S. broiler export volumes throughout the past five years. Throughout the past 12 months, U.S. broiler export volumes destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan have increased most significantly on a YOY basis, followed by volumes destined to Georgia, while shipments destined to Angola have declined most significantly on a YOY basis over the period.
U.S. broiler import volumes increased on a YOY basis for the fifth time in the past six months during May ’20, finishing up 1.9%. Broiler import volumes remained at insignificant levels relative to export volumes, however, as May ’20 imports amounted to just 1.7% of export volumes. The YOY decline in broiler export volumes, coupled with the YOY increase in import volumes, resulted in U.S. broiler net trade finishing 4.6% lower on a YOY basis during May ’20. The YOY decline in broiler net trade was the first experienced throughout the past seven months.
’18-’19 annual net broiler trade finished up 1.7% YOY, reaching a five year high, despite declines experienced throughout the final months of the production season. ’19-’20 YTD net broiler trade has increased by an additional 3.2% on a YOY basis throughout the first two thirds of the production season, despite the most recent decline.
Combined Net Trade
Overall, combined net trade of U.S. pork, beef and broilers increased on a YOY basis for the seventh consecutive month during May ’20, finishing up 13.3 million pounds, or 1.3%. The YOY increase in combined net trade of U.S. pork, beef and broilers was the smallest experienced throughout the seven month period, however. Combined net trade of U.S. pork, beef and broilers had reached an eight and a half year high growth rate throughout the month of March, prior to declining but remaining positive throughout the past two months of data.