July ’12 USDA World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates

’11/’12 Corn –Neutral
- Exports were reduced 50 million bushels.
- Ending stocks was estimated at 903 million bushels or 26.1 days of usage which was slightly above the 844 million bushel private estimate.
’12/’13 Corn– Bullish
- Total production was revised sharply lower by 1.82 billion bushels on a 20 bushel/acre reduction in yield along with slightly lower harvested acres. This was well below what was expected to be reported by the USDA but in line with private estimates for yields and production.
- Feed and residual usage was revised down sharply by 650 million bushels based on higher prices rationing demand.
- Ethanol grind was also 100 million bushels lower as declining production is expected to continue given very poor margins on the curve.
- Exports were off a sizeable 300 million bushels leaving them on par with current year exports.
- Ending stocks were left at 1,183 million bushels or 33.9 days of use which was on the low end of expectations.
’11/’12 Soybeans– Neutral
- Exports and crush were revised higher by a total of 20 million bushels which was offset by 15 million bushels of reductions in residual usage.
- Ending stocks was estimated at 170 million bushels or near expectations.

’12/’13 Soybeans– Bullish
- Yield was reduced to 40.5 bushels per acre more than offsetting increased acreage leaving production down 150 million bushels.
- Exports were reduced 115 million bushels and crush is projected 35 million bushels lower.
- Ending stocks came in at a very tight 130 million bushels or 15.3 days of use which was in line with trade estimates.

Other Markets – Slightly Bearish
- EU & South American corn production was revised higher again this month by about 2.3 million tons but very minimal compared to the 47.6 million ton reduction in US production.
- Livestock projections are lower as higher feed costs for grains and protein are curtailing herd expansion in all areas as well as incenting lighter finish weights.