U.S. Dairy Cold Storage Update – Sep ’20
Executive Summary
U.S. cold storage figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Aug ’20. Highlights from the updated report include:
According to the USDA, Aug ’20 U.S. butter stocks increased slightly from the previous month while finishing 22.1% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a 27 year high seasonal level for the month of August. The YOY increase in butter stocks was the 14th experienced in a row. The MOM increase in butter stocks of 0.3 million pounds, or 0.1%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average July – August seasonal decline of 27.0 million pounds, or 10.7%. Butter stocks typically reach seasonal high levels throughout the months of May and June prior to declining throughout the second half of the calendar year. Previous year butter stocks did not reach a seasonal high level until the month of July, however.
On a days of usage basis, Aug ’20 U.S. butter stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of August, butter stocks on a days of usage basis increased YOY for the fourth time in the past five months, finishing up 18.8%.
Cheese – Stocks Decline to a Five Month Low Level but Remain 1.0% Higher YOY
Aug ’20 U.S. cheese stocks declined seasonally from the previous month but remained 1.0% above previous year volumes, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in cheese stocks was the fifth experienced in a row. American cheese stocks increased 3.0% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 1.5% YOY decline in other-than-American cheese stocks. The MOM decline in cheese stocks of 13.3 million pounds, or 1.0%, was smaller than the ten year average July – August seasonal decline of 24.6 million pounds, or 2.0%.
On a days of usage basis, Aug ’20 U.S. cheese stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of August, cheese stocks on a days of usage basis increased YOY for the fourth time in the past five months, finishing up 1.4%.
Combined Dairy Product Stocks – Aug ’20 Stocks Projected to Remain at a Record High Seasonal Level
Combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and nonfat dry milk remained at a record high seasonal level for the sixth consecutive month throughout Jul ’20, finishing 5.4% above previous year levels. Combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and nonfat dry milk are projected to remain at a record high seasonal level throughout Aug ’20 when using actual butter and cheese stock figures and previous month YOY changes in dry whey and nonfat dry milk stocks, increasing by an estimated 5.7%. Aug ’20 dry whey and nonfat dry milk stock figures are scheduled to be available October 5th.
- U.S. butter stocks remained higher on a YOY basis for the 14th consecutive month during Aug ’20, finishing up 22.1% and reaching a 27 year high seasonal level.
- Aug ’20 U.S. cheese stocks declined to a five month low level but remained 1.0% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a record high seasonal level.
According to the USDA, Aug ’20 U.S. butter stocks increased slightly from the previous month while finishing 22.1% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a 27 year high seasonal level for the month of August. The YOY increase in butter stocks was the 14th experienced in a row. The MOM increase in butter stocks of 0.3 million pounds, or 0.1%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average July – August seasonal decline of 27.0 million pounds, or 10.7%. Butter stocks typically reach seasonal high levels throughout the months of May and June prior to declining throughout the second half of the calendar year. Previous year butter stocks did not reach a seasonal high level until the month of July, however.
On a days of usage basis, Aug ’20 U.S. butter stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of August, butter stocks on a days of usage basis increased YOY for the fourth time in the past five months, finishing up 18.8%.
Cheese – Stocks Decline to a Five Month Low Level but Remain 1.0% Higher YOY
Aug ’20 U.S. cheese stocks declined seasonally from the previous month but remained 1.0% above previous year volumes, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in cheese stocks was the fifth experienced in a row. American cheese stocks increased 3.0% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 1.5% YOY decline in other-than-American cheese stocks. The MOM decline in cheese stocks of 13.3 million pounds, or 1.0%, was smaller than the ten year average July – August seasonal decline of 24.6 million pounds, or 2.0%.
On a days of usage basis, Aug ’20 U.S. cheese stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of August, cheese stocks on a days of usage basis increased YOY for the fourth time in the past five months, finishing up 1.4%.
Combined Dairy Product Stocks – Aug ’20 Stocks Projected to Remain at a Record High Seasonal Level
Combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and nonfat dry milk remained at a record high seasonal level for the sixth consecutive month throughout Jul ’20, finishing 5.4% above previous year levels. Combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and nonfat dry milk are projected to remain at a record high seasonal level throughout Aug ’20 when using actual butter and cheese stock figures and previous month YOY changes in dry whey and nonfat dry milk stocks, increasing by an estimated 5.7%. Aug ’20 dry whey and nonfat dry milk stock figures are scheduled to be available October 5th.