Quarterly Australian Milk Production Update – Nov ’20
Executive Summary
Australian milk production figures provided by Dairy Australia were recently updated with values spanning through the end of the first quarter of the ’20-’21 production season. Highlights from the updated report include:
Australian milk production volumes had declined on a YOY basis over 18 consecutive months through Nov ’19 prior to increasing on a YOY basis over the past ten months. The Sep ’20 YOY increase in Australian milk production volumes was the smallest experienced throughout the past nine months, however.
’19-’20 annual Australian milk production volumes declined by 0.4% on a YOY basis, reaching a 24 year low level, as a 4.3% YOY decline in production volumes experienced throughout the first half of the production season more than offset a 4.9% YOY rebound in production experienced throughout the final six months of the production season. Dry weather conditions experienced throughout the first half of the ’19-’20 production season resulted in reduced production volumes however improved rainfall led to better pasture growth throughout the second half of the year. ’20-’21 YTD production volumes have rebounded by 2.0% on a YOY basis throughout the first quarter of the production season.
Recently experienced low pasture volumes and supplementary feed on hand contributed to the Australian dairy cow herd contracting by 5.6% throughout 2019, finishing at the lowest figure on record. USDA expects the Australian dairy cow herd will decline by an additional 0.3% throughout 2020, despite projected improvements in pasture conditions, due to biological lags in herd rebuilding.
Australia is the fourth largest global dairy exporter, trailing only New Zealand, the EU-28 and the U.S. Of the top five dairy exporting regions accounting for over 90% of total global dairy exports, Australia accounts for 3.0% of total combined milk production and 5.2% of combined butter, cheese, nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and whole milk powder (WMP) export volumes throughout 2019.
The bulk of Australian dairy exports are in the form of cheese and NFDM. Australia was the fourth largest exporter of both cheese and NFDM throughout 2019, accounting for 7.6% of global cheese export volumes and 5.4% of global NFDM export volumes. From a global perspective, cheese and NFDM markets may be most affected by a continued rebound in Australian milk production.
- Australian milk production increased on a YOY basis for the tenth consecutive month during Sep ’20, finishing up 0.2%. ’19-’20 annual production volumes declined by 0.4% on a YOY basis however production has rebounded by 2.0% on a YOY throughout the first quarter of the ’20-’21 production season.
- Recently experienced low pasture volumes and supplementary feed on hand contributed to the Australian dairy cow herd contracting by 5.6% throughout 2019, finishing at the lowest figure on record. USDA expects the Australian dairy cow herd will decline by an additional 0.3% throughout 2020.
- Australia is the fourth largest global dairy exporter, accounting for 5.2% of combined butter, cheese, nonfat dry milk and whole milk powder exports throughout 2019. The bulk of Australian dairy exports are in the form of cheese and nonfat dry milk. From a global perspective, cheese and nonfat dry milk markets may be most affected by a continued rebound in Australian milk production.
Australian milk production volumes had declined on a YOY basis over 18 consecutive months through Nov ’19 prior to increasing on a YOY basis over the past ten months. The Sep ’20 YOY increase in Australian milk production volumes was the smallest experienced throughout the past nine months, however.
’19-’20 annual Australian milk production volumes declined by 0.4% on a YOY basis, reaching a 24 year low level, as a 4.3% YOY decline in production volumes experienced throughout the first half of the production season more than offset a 4.9% YOY rebound in production experienced throughout the final six months of the production season. Dry weather conditions experienced throughout the first half of the ’19-’20 production season resulted in reduced production volumes however improved rainfall led to better pasture growth throughout the second half of the year. ’20-’21 YTD production volumes have rebounded by 2.0% on a YOY basis throughout the first quarter of the production season.
Recently experienced low pasture volumes and supplementary feed on hand contributed to the Australian dairy cow herd contracting by 5.6% throughout 2019, finishing at the lowest figure on record. USDA expects the Australian dairy cow herd will decline by an additional 0.3% throughout 2020, despite projected improvements in pasture conditions, due to biological lags in herd rebuilding.
Australia is the fourth largest global dairy exporter, trailing only New Zealand, the EU-28 and the U.S. Of the top five dairy exporting regions accounting for over 90% of total global dairy exports, Australia accounts for 3.0% of total combined milk production and 5.2% of combined butter, cheese, nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and whole milk powder (WMP) export volumes throughout 2019.
The bulk of Australian dairy exports are in the form of cheese and NFDM. Australia was the fourth largest exporter of both cheese and NFDM throughout 2019, accounting for 7.6% of global cheese export volumes and 5.4% of global NFDM export volumes. From a global perspective, cheese and NFDM markets may be most affected by a continued rebound in Australian milk production.