Executive Summary

U.S. cold storage figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Jan ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• U.S. butter stocks remained higher on a YOY basis for the 19^th consecutive month throughout Jan ’21, finishing up 32.8% and reaching a 28 year high seasonal level.
• U.S. cheese stocks finished 3.3% above previous year levels throughout Jan ’21, remaining at a record high seasonal level for the second consecutive month.

Additional Report Details

Butter – Stocks Reach a 28 Year High Seasonal Level, Finish 32.8% Higher YOY

According to the USDA, Jan ’21 U.S. butter stocks increased seasonally to a four month high level while finishing 32.8% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a 28 year high seasonal level for the month of January. Butter stocks have finished higher on a YOY basis over 19 consecutive months through Jan ’21. The month-over-month increase in butter stocks of 20.0% was significantly smaller than the ten year average December – January seasonal increase of 35.0% on a percentage basis however the seasonal increase remained larger on an absolute basis (54.6 million pound increase compared to a ten year average increase of 47.0 million pounds). Butter stocks typically reach seasonal low levels throughout the month of November, prior to increasing seasonally throughout the month of December and the first half of the calendar year.

On a days of usage basis, Jan ’21 U.S. butter stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of January, butter stocks on a days of usage basis increased YOY for the seventh consecutive month, finishing up 28.1%.

Cheese – Stocks Remain at a Record High Seasonal Level, Finish 3.3% Higher YOY

Jan ’21 U.S. cheese stocks increased seasonally to a seven month high level while finishing 3.3% higher on a YOY basis, remaining at a record high seasonal level for the second consecutive month. The YOY increase in cheese stocks was the third experienced in a row. American cheese stocks increased 2.7% on a YOY basis throughout the month while other-than-American cheese stocks finished 4.1% above previous year levels. The month-over-month increase in cheese stocks of 2.2 million pounds, or 0.2%, was smaller than the ten year average December – January seasonal increase of 15.8 million pounds, or 1.4%.

On a days of usage basis, Jan ’21 U.S. cheese stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of January, cheese stocks on a days of usage basis for the fourth consecutive month, finishing up 4.4%.

Combined Dairy Product Stocks – Jan ’21 Stocks Projected to Remain at a Record High Seasonal Level

Combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and nonfat dry milk remained at a record high seasonal level for the 11^th consecutive month throughout Dec ’20, finishing 10.3% above previous year levels. Combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and nonfat dry milk are projected to remain higher on a YOY basis throughout Jan ’21 when using actual butter and cheese stock figures and previous month YOY changes in dry whey and nonfat dry milk stocks, increasing by an estimated 8.3% and reaching a record high seasonal level. Jan ’21 dry whey and nonfat dry milk stock figures are scheduled to be available March 4^th.