Executive Summary

U.S. milk production figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Feb ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• U.S. milk production increased on a YOY basis for the 19^th time in the past 20 months throughout Feb ’21, finishing 2.0% above the previous year and reaching a new record high monthly level on a daily average basis. YOY increases in production on an absolute basis were led by Wisconsin, followed by California and Texas.
• The Jan ’21 U.S. milk cow herd figure was revised 5,000 head above levels previously stated while the Feb ’21 figure increased an additional 3,000 head, reaching a 25 year high level. Milk cow herd figures finished 81,000 head above the previous year.
• U.S. milk per cow yields increased 1.2% on a YOY basis throughout Feb ’21, finishing higher for the 63^rd time in the past 64 months. The YOY increase in milk per cow yields was the smallest experienced throughout the past eight months, however.

Additional Report Details

According to the USDA, Feb ’21 U.S. milk production volumes continued to increase seasonally from the previous month while finishing 2.0% higher on a YOY basis when accounting for the previous year’s leap year, reaching a new record high monthly level on a daily average basis. The month-over-month increase in production volumes of 1.0% was smaller than the ten year average January – February seasonal increase in production of 1.8%. The smaller than typical seasonal increase in milk production volumes occurred due to previous month production figures being revised 0.8% above levels previously stated.

U.S. milk production volumes had finished higher on a YOY basis over 61 consecutive months from Jan ’14 – Jan ‘19, reaching the longest period of consecutive growth on record, prior to declining by a total of 0.3% from Feb ’19 – Jun ’19. Milk production volumes rebounded throughout more recent months, however, finishing higher over 19 of the past 20 months through Feb ’21. The Feb ’21 YOY increase in production was the smallest experienced throughout the past six months however the 12-month rolling average milk production growth rate reached a three year high level.

YOY increases in production on a percentage basis were led by Indiana (+10.5%), followed by South Dakota (+9.7%) and Minnesota (+5.8%), while production volumes finished most significantly lower YOY on a percentage basis within Florida (-5.0%), Virginia (-3.8%) and Vermont (-3.7%). Wisconsin milk production volumes increased on a YOY basis for the seventh time in the past eight months, finishing 3.2% above previous year levels. Wisconsin milk production had declined on a YOY basis over seven of eight months through Jun ’20. Overall, 15 of the 24 states milk production figures are provided for experienced YOY increases in production throughout the month.

California milk production volumes increased on a YOY basis for the 16^th time in the past 17 months throughout Feb ’21, finishing up 2.0%. Previous month California milk production volumes were revised 2.7% above levels previously stated. California accounted for 18.9% of total U.S. milk production volumes throughout the month, leading all states.

Eight of the top ten largest milk producing states experienced YOY increases in production throughout Feb ’21, as milk production within the top ten milk producing states increased by a weighted average of 2.3% throughout the month. The aforementioned states accounted for nearly three quarters of the total U.S. milk production experienced during Feb ’21. Production volumes outside of the top ten largest milk producing states increased 1.3% on a YOY basis throughout the month.

Feb ’21 YOY increases in milk production on an absolute basis were led by Wisconsin, followed by California and Texas, while YOY declines in production on an absolute basis were most significant throughout Washington.

The Jan ’21 U.S. milk cow herd figure was revised 5,000 head above levels previous stated while the Feb ’21 figure increased an additional 3,000 head, reaching a 25 year high level. The U.S. milk cow herd currently stands at 9.458 million head, finishing 81,000 head above the previous year.

U.S. milk per cow yields finished 1.2% above previous year levels throughout Feb ’21, finishing higher on a YOY basis for the 63^rd time in the past 64 months. The YOY increase in milk per cow yields was the smallest experienced throughout the past eight months, however. Previous month milk per cow yields were revised 0.8% above levels previously stated. Yields experienced throughout the Midwestern states of Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and Illinois finished 1.4% higher on a YOY basis throughout Feb ’21 while yields experienced throughout the Western states of California, Idaho, Washington and Oregon increased 0.3% YOY.

Month-over-month increases in the New York, Ohio and Utah milk cow herds more than offset a decline in the New Mexico milk cow herd throughout Feb ’21.

Feb ’21 YOY increases in milk cow herds continued to be led by Texas, followed by Indiana, Michigan and South Dakota, while the Pennsylvania and Florida milk cow herds finished most significantly lower on a YOY basis throughout the month.