Executive Summary

U.S. cold storage figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Feb ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• U.S. butter stocks remained higher on a YOY basis for the 20^th consecutive month throughout Feb ’21, finishing up 16.8% and reaching a 28 year high seasonal level.
• U.S. cheese stocks finished 5.4% above previous year levels throughout Feb ’21, remaining at a record high seasonal level for the third consecutive month.

Additional Report Details

Butter – Stocks Remain at a 28 Year High Seasonal Level, Finish 16.8% Higher YOY

According to the USDA, Feb ’21 U.S. butter stocks increased seasonally to a six month high level while finishing 16.8% higher on a YOY basis, remaining at a 28 year high seasonal level for the month of February. Butter stocks have finished higher on a YOY basis over 20 consecutive months through Feb ’21, although the Feb ’21 YOY increase in butter stocks was the smallest experienced throughout the past seven months on a percentage basis. The month-over-month increase in butter stocks of 20.8 million pounds, or 6.3%, was smaller than the ten year average January – February seasonal increase of 36.2 million pounds, or 19.1%. Butter stocks typically reach seasonal low levels throughout the month of November, prior to increasing seasonally throughout the month of December and the first half of the calendar year. The January – February seasonal increase in butter stocks was the smallest experienced throughout the past 17 years on a percentage basis and the second smallest experienced throughout the 17 year period on an absolute basis.

On a days of usage basis, Feb ’21 U.S. butter stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of February, butter stocks on a days of usage basis increased YOY for the eighth consecutive month, finishing up 11.1%.

Cheese – Stocks Remain at a Record High Seasonal Level, Finish 5.4% Higher YOY

Feb ’21 U.S. cheese stocks increased seasonally to a nine month high level while finishing 5.4% higher on a YOY basis, remaining at a record high seasonal level for the third consecutive month. The YOY increase in cheese stocks was the fourth experienced in a row. American cheese stocks increased 4.8% on a YOY basis throughout the month while other-than-American cheese stocks finished 6.2% above previous year levels. The month-over-month increase in cheese stocks of 27.8 million pounds, or 2.0%, was greater than the ten year average January – February seasonal increase of 12.3 million pounds, or 1.1%.

On a days of usage basis, Feb ’21 U.S. cheese stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of February, cheese stocks on a days of usage basis for the fifth consecutive month, finishing up 5.9%.

Combined Dairy Product Stocks – Feb ’21 Stocks Projected to Remain at a Record High Seasonal Level

Combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and nonfat dry milk remained at a record high seasonal level for the 12^th consecutive month throughout Jan ’21, finishing 8.7% above previous year levels. Combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and nonfat dry milk are projected to remain higher on a YOY basis throughout Feb ’21 when using actual butter and cheese stock figures and previous month YOY changes in dry whey and nonfat dry milk stocks, increasing by an estimated 7.7% and reaching a record high seasonal level. Feb ’21 dry whey and no+nfat dry milk stock figures are scheduled to be available April 1^st.