Executive Summary

U.S. dairy cow slaughter figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Feb ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• Feb ’21 U.S. dairy cow slaughter rates increased 1.9% on a YOY basis when normalizing for slaughter days, finishing higher on a YOY basis for the first time in the past ten months.
• YOY increases in dairy cow slaughter rates were led by Standard Federal Region 7 (Iowa, Kansas, Missouri and Nebraska).
• Recent declines in slaughter rates have contributed to the U.S. milk cow herd rebounding to a 25 year high level through Feb ’21. U.S. dairy cow slaughter has declined 4.1% on a YOY basis throughout the first five months of the ’20-’21 production season, despite the most recent increase.

Additional Report Details

According to the USDA, Feb ’21 U.S. dairy cow slaughter rates increased seasonally to a 13 month high level, finishing 1.9% higher on a YOY basis when normalizing for slaughter days. The month-over-month increase in slaughter rates of 2.2% was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average January – February seasonal decline of 2.5%.

Dairy cow slaughter rates had finished higher on a YOY basis over 30 consecutive months through Jul ’19 prior to finishing flat or lower throughout 16 of the past 18 months through Jan ’21. The Feb ’21 YOY increase in dairy cow slaughter rates was the first experienced throughout the past ten months. Despite increasing on a YOY basis, Feb ’21 dairy cow slaughter rates remained 0.5% below three year average seasonal levels. U.S. dairy cow slaughter has declined 4.1% on a YOY basis throughout the first five months of the ’20-’21 production season, despite the most recent increase.

Recent declines in slaughter rates have contributed to the U.S. milk cow herd continuing to grow through Feb ’21. The Feb ’21 U.S. milk cow herd figure increased 3,000 head from the previous month, reaching a 25 year high level and finishing 81,000 head above the previous year.

Month-over-month increases in dairy cow slaughter rates were most significant throughout Standard Federal Region 5 (Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio and Wisconsin), followed closely by Standard Federal Region 10 (Alaska, Idaho, Oregon and Washington). Slaughter rates declined most significantly on a month-over-month basis throughout Standard Federal Region 3 (Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Virginia and West Virginia).

YOY increases in dairy cow slaughter were led by Standard Federal Region 7 (Iowa, Kansas, Missouri and Nebraska). Dairy cow slaughter rates declined most on a YOY basis throughout Standard Federal Region 3 (Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Virginia and West Virginia).

2019 annual dairy cow slaughter rates increased 2.3% on a YOY basis, reaching a 33 year high and a 35 year high level on a percentage of the total dairy cow herd basis. 2020 annual dairy cow slaughter rates declined 5.6% on a YOY basis, however, reaching a three year low level on both an absolute and percentage of the total dairy cow herd basis.