Executive Summary

U.S. dairy dry product stock figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Feb ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• U.S. dry whey stocks remained lower on a YOY basis for the fifth time in the past six months throughout Feb ’21, finishing 5.5% below previous year figures.
• U.S. nonfat dry milk stocks reached a record high seasonal level throughout Feb ’21, finishing 8.6% above previous year figures.

Additional Report Details

Dry Whey – Stocks Remain Lower YOY for the Fifth Time in the Past Six Months, Finish Down 5.5%

According to the USDA, Feb ’21 month-end dry whey stocks rebounded seasonally to a five month high level but remained 5.5% lower on a YOY basis. The YOY decline in dry whey stocks was the fifth experienced throughout the past six months. Dry whey stocks finished at the second lowest seasonal level experienced throughout the past six years.

The month-over-month build in dry whey stocks of 3.0 million pounds, or 4.5%, was greater than the ten year average January – February seasonal increase in dry whey stocks of 0.2 million pounds, or 0.8%. Dry whey production increased 4.3% on a YOY basis throughout Feb ’21, finishing above previous year figures for the second time in the past three months.

On a days of usage basis, Feb ’21 U.S. dry whey stocks also finished lower YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of February, dry whey stocks on a days of usage basis finished 3.3% lower YOY, declining on a YOY basis for the fifth time in the past six months.

Nonfat Dry Milk – Stocks Reach a Record High Seasonal Level, Finish up 8.6% YOY

Feb ’21 month-end nonfat dry milk (NFDM) stocks increased seasonally to a nine month high level while finishing 8.6% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in NFDM stocks was fifth experienced in a row.

The month-over-month increase in NFDM stocks of 40.6 million pounds, or 13.3%, was larger than the ten year average January – February seasonal increase in stocks of 16.8 million pounds, or 8.4%. NFDM production increased 21.2% on a YOY basis throughout Feb ’21, finishing higher for the seventh consecutive month.

On a days of usage basis, Feb ’21 U.S. NFDM stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of February, NFDM stocks on a days of usage basis finished 3.6% above previous year figures, increasing on a YOY basis for the fourth time in the past five months.

Combined Dairy Product Stocks – Stocks Remain at a Record High Seasonal Level, Finish up 7.2%

Feb ’21 combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and NFDM increased seasonally to a nine month high level while finishing 7.2% higher on a YOY basis. Combined stocks remained at a record high seasonal level for the 13^th consecutive month.