Executive Summary

U.S. livestock and meat trade figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Mar ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• U.S. net pork trade finished higher on a YOY basis for the first time in the past five months during Mar ’21, finishing up 1.1% and reaching a record high monthly level. Pork export volumes increased 3.9% on a YOY basis throughout the month.
• U.S. beef & veal export volumes increased 12.3% on a YOY basis throughout Mar ’21, reaching a record high monthly level, while net beef & veal trade remained at a positive level for the sixth consecutive month.
• U.S. net broiler trade finished lower on a YOY basis for the first time in the past four months, down 2.7%. Net broiler trade remained at the second highest seasonal level on record, however.

Additional Report Details

Pork – Exports and Net Trade Increase to Record High Monthly Levels

According to the USDA, U.S. pork export volumes finished higher on a YOY basis for the first time in the past four months during Mar ’21, increasing by 3.9% and reaching a record high monthly level. Pork export volumes had finished higher on a YOY basis over 18 consecutive months through Nov ’20, prior to declining on a YOY basis throughout Dec ’20 – Feb ’21. The Mar ’21 YOY increase in pork export volumes was the largest experienced throughout the past five months. YOY increases in pork export volumes were led by volumes destined to the Philippines, while pork export volumes destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan declined most significantly on a YOY basis throughout the month.

Mexico and Japan have historically been the largest importers of U.S. pork products, accounting for nearly half of the total U.S. pork export volumes throughout the past five years. Combined U.S. pork export volumes destined to Mexico and Japan have declined by 0.7% on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months, however. Throughout the past 12 months, YOY increases in U.S. pork exports have been led by product destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan, while shipments destined to South Korea have declined most significantly on a YOY basis over the period.

U.S. pork import volumes increased on a YOY basis for the sixth consecutive month during Mar ’21, finishing up 28.5%. The YOY increase in pork import volumes was the largest experienced throughout the past six years on a percentage basis. The increase in pork export volumes more than offset the increase in import volumes, resulting in U.S. net pork trade finishing up 1.1% YOY during Mar ’21, reaching a record high monthly level. The YOY increase in net pork trade was the first experienced throughout the past five months.

’19-’20 annual net pork trade increased 25.4% YOY, finishing at a record high level for the third consecutive year. ’20-’21 YTD net pork trade has declined by 3.3% on a YOY basis throughout the first half of the production season, however, despite the most recent increase.

Beef & Veal – Exports Reach a Record High Monthly Level, Net Trade Remains Positive

U.S. beef & veal export volumes finished higher on a YOY basis for sixth consecutive month during Mar ’21, increasing by 12.3% and remaining at a record high monthly level. YOY increases in U.S. beef & veal export volumes were led by shipments destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan, followed by shipments destined to South Korea, while export volumes destined to Japan and Canada declined most significantly on a YOY basis throughout the month.

Japan, South Korea, China, Hong Kong & Taiwan, Mexico and Canada have historically been the largest importers of U.S. beef & veal products, combining to account for nearly 90% of the total U.S. beef & veal export volumes throughout the past five years. Throughout the past 12 months, U.S. beef & veal export volumes destined to Mexico have declined most significantly on a YOY basis, while shipments destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan have increased most significantly on a YOY basis over the period.

Mar ’21 U.S. beef & veal import volumes declined on a YOY basis for the fifth consecutive month, finishing down 8.6%. Beef & veal import volumes had finished higher on a YOY basis over five consecutive months through Oct ’20, prior to declining over the five most recent months of available data. Beef & veal export volumes exceeded import volumes for the sixth consecutive month during Mar ’21, resulting in U.S. beef & veal net trade remaining at a positive level.

’19-’20 annual beef & veal net trade finished at a negative level for the first time in the past three years. ’20-’21 YTD net beef & veal trade has rebounded throughout the first half of the production season, however, and is on pace to reach a ten year high annual level.

Broilers – Exports and Net Trade Decline YOY for the First Time in Four Months

U.S. broiler export volumes finished lower on a YOY basis for the first time in the past four months, declining by 2.8% but remaining at the second highest seasonal level on record. YOY declines in U.S. broiler export volumes were led by shipments destined to Georgia, followed by volumes destined to the United Arab Emirates and China, Hong Kong & Taiwan, while export volumes destined to Cuba and the Philippines increased most significantly on a YOY basis throughout the month.

Mexico has historically been the largest importer of U.S. broilers, accounting for over one fifth of the total U.S. broiler export volumes throughout the past five years. Throughout the past 12 months, U.S. broiler export volumes destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan have increased most significantly on a YOY basis, while shipments destined to Georgia and Vietnam have declined most significantly on a YOY basis over the period.

U.S. broiler import volumes finished lower on a YOY basis for the fourth consecutive month during Mar ’21, declining by 6.8%. Broiler import volumes remained at insignificant levels relative to export volumes, as Mar ’21 imports amounted to just 1.9% of export volumes. The YOY decline in broiler export volumes more than offset the YOY decline in import volumes, resulting in U.S. broiler net trade finishing 2.7% lower on a YOY basis during Mar ’21. The YOY decline in broiler net trade was the first experienced throughout the past four months. Mar ’21 broiler net trade remained at the second highest seasonal level on record, however.

’19-’20 annual net broiler trade finished up 2.7% YOY, reaching a six year high level. ’20-’21 YTD net broiler trade increased by an additional 2.5% on a YOY basis throughout the first half of the production season and is on pace to reach a record high level, despite the most recent decline.

Combined Net Trade

Overall, combined net trade of U.S. pork, beef and broilers increased on a YOY basis for the first time in the past three months during Mar ’21, finishing up 46.3 million pounds, or 3.8%. Combined net trade of U.S. pork, beef and broilers had reached an eight and a half year high growth rate throughout Mar ’20, prior to decelerating throughout the final three quarters of the 2020 calendar year and the first quarter of 2021.