Executive Summary

U.S. milk production figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Apr ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• U.S. milk production increased on a YOY basis for the 21^st time in the past 22 months throughout Apr ’21, finishing 3.3% above the previous year and reaching a new record high monthly level on a daily average basis. The YOY increase in milk production volumes was the second largest experienced throughout the past six years. YOY increases in production on an absolute basis were led by California, followed by Wisconsin and Texas.
• The Mar ’21 U.S. milk cow herd figure was revised 6,000 head above levels previously stated while the Apr ’21 figure increased an additional 16,000 head, reaching a 26 year high level. Milk cow herd figures finished 113,000 head above the previous year.
• U.S. milk per cow yields increased 2.0% on a YOY basis throughout Apr ’21, finishing higher for the 65^th time in the past 66 months. The YOY increase in milk per cow yields was the largest experienced throughout the past five months.

Additional Report Details

According to the USDA, Apr ’21 U.S. milk production volumes continued to increase seasonally from the previous month while finishing 3.3% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a new record high monthly level on a daily average basis. The month-over-month increase in production volumes of 0.8% was slightly smaller than the ten year average March – April seasonal increase in production.

U.S. milk production volumes had finished higher on a YOY basis over 61 consecutive months from Jan ’14 – Jan ‘19, reaching the longest period of consecutive growth on record, prior to declining by a total of 0.3% from Feb ’19 – Jun ’19. Milk production volumes have rebounded throughout more recent months, finishing higher over 21 of the past 22 months through Apr ’21. The Apr ’21 YOY increase in production was the second largest experienced throughout the past six years, trailing only the Nov ’20 increase, while the 12-month rolling average growth rate reached a three and a half year high level.

YOY increases in production on a percentage basis were led by South Dakota (+13.4%), followed by Indiana (+11.4%) and Texas (+7.7%), while production volumes finished most significantly lower YOY on a percentage basis within Florida (-5.3%), Vermont (-2.7%) and Virginia (-2.3%). Wisconsin milk production volumes increased on a YOY basis for the ninth time in the past ten months, finishing 4.6% above previous year levels. Wisconsin milk production had declined on a YOY basis over seven of eight months through Jun ’20. The YOY increase in Wisconsin milk production volumes was the largest experienced throughout the past five years. Overall, 16 of the 24 states milk production figures are provided for experienced YOY increases in production throughout the month.

California milk production volumes increased on a YOY basis for the 18^th time in the past 19 months throughout Apr ’21, finishing up 4.1%. The YOY increase in California milk production volumes was the largest experienced throughout the past 31 months. California accounted for 18.9% of total U.S. milk production volumes throughout the month, leading all states.

Eight of the top ten largest milk producing states experienced YOY increases in production throughout Apr ’21, as milk production within the top ten milk producing states increased by a weighted average of 3.6% throughout the month. The aforementioned states accounted for nearly three quarters of the total U.S. milk production experienced during Apr ’21. Production volumes outside of the top ten largest milk producing states increased 2.3% on a YOY basis throughout the month.

Apr ’21 YOY increases in milk production on an absolute basis were led by California, followed by Wisconsin and Texas, while YOY declines in production on an absolute basis were most significant throughout Florida.

The Mar ’21 U.S. milk cow herd figure was revised 6,000 head above levels previous stated while the Apr ’21 figure increased an additional 16,000 head, reaching a 26 year high level. The U.S. milk cow herd currently stands at 9.49 million head, finishing 113,000 head above the previous year.

U.S. milk per cow yields finished 2.0% above previous year levels throughout Apr ’21, finishing higher on a YOY basis for the 65^th time in the past 66 months. The YOY increase in milk per cow yields was the largest experienced throughout the past five months. Yields experienced throughout the Midwestern states of Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and Illinois finished 1.7% higher on a YOY basis throughout Apr ’21 while yields experienced throughout the Western states of California, Idaho, Washington and Oregon increased 1.0% YOY.

Month-over-month increases in milk cow herds were led by South Dakota, followed by Wisconsin, Iowa and Texas, while the New Mexico milk cow herd declined most significantly from the previous month throughout Apr ’21.

Apr ’21 YOY increases in milk cow herds continued to be led by Texas, followed by South Dakota, Indiana and Minnesota, while the Pennsylvania and Florida milk cow herds finished most significantly lower on a YOY basis throughout the month.