Executive Summary

U.S. dairy product production figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Apr ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• U.S. butter production declined on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month throughout Apr ’21, finishing 18.5% below previous year levels but remaining at the second highest seasonal level on record.
• U.S. cheese production finished 8.0% higher on a YOY basis throughout Apr ’21, remaining at a record high seasonal level for the sixth consecutive month, however dry whey production finished lower on a YOY basis for the seventh time in the past nine months, down 1.8%.
• Combined production of U.S. nonfat dry milk and skim milk powder declined 7.1% on a YOY basis throughout Apr ’21, finishing lower for the first time in the past nine months. Nonfat dry milk production declined 4.0% YOY throughout the month while skim milk powder production finished 19.4% below previous year levels.

Additional Report Details

Butter – Production Declines YOY for the Second Consecutive Month, Finishes Down 18.5%

According to the USDA, U.S. butter production declined on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month throughout Apr ’21, finishing 18.5% below the record high monthly level experienced throughout April of 2020. Despite declining on a YOY basis, butter production remained at the second highest seasonal level on record for the month of April. Butter production had reached record high seasonal levels over eight consecutive months through Feb ’21, prior to declining on a YOY basis throughout the most recent two months of available data. YOY declines in butter production were widespread regionally and led by the Central U.S. (-27.9%), followed by the Atlantic U.S. (-20.2%) and Western U.S. (-9.8%).

’19-’20 annual butter production increased 6.3% YOY, reaching the highest annual level on record for the third consecutive year. ’20-’21 YTD butter production has increased by an additional 0.8% on a YOY basis throughout the first seven months of the production season, despite the most recent decline.

Cheese – Production Remains at a Record High Seasonal Level, Finishes up 8.0% YOY

U.S. cheese production finished 8.0% higher on a YOY basis throughout Apr ’21, remaining at a record high seasonal level for the sixth consecutive month. The YOY increase in cheese production was the ninth experienced throughout the past 11 months and the largest experienced throughout the past 20 years on a percentage basis. YOY increases in cheese production were widespread regionally and led by the Central U.S. (+10.2%), followed by the Western U.S. (+6.3%) and Atlantic U.S. (+5.5%).

Cheddar cheese production increased 1.2% on a YOY basis throughout the month while other-than-cheddar cheese production finished 11.1% higher. The YOY increase in cheddar cheese production was the 12^th experienced throughout the past 13 months.

’19-’20 annual cheese production finished below previous year levels for the first time in the past 19 years, finishing down 0.1%. Other-than-cheddar cheese production declined 0.5% throughout the year, more than offsetting a 1.0% YOY increase in other-than-cheddar cheese production. ’20-’21 YTD cheese production has increased by 2.9% on a YOY basis throughout the first seven months of the production season, however, and is on pace to reach a record high annual level.

Dry Whey – Production Declines YOY for the Seventh Time in the Past Nine Months, Down 1.8%

U.S. dry whey production declined 1.8% on a YOY basis throughout Apr ’21, finishing below previous year levels for the seventh time in the past nine months. Lower dry whey production experienced throughout the Atlantic U.S. (-12.2%) and Western U.S. (-7.2%) more than offset higher Central U.S. (+11.0%) production experienced throughout the month.

Combined whey protein concentrate (WPC) and whey protein isolate (WPI) production finished higher on a YOY basis for the fifth consecutive month during Apr ’21, increasing by 7.8%. Combined WPC and WPI production had finished lower on a YOY basis over 17 of the 18 months through Nov ’20, prior to finishing higher on a YOY basis over the five most recent months of available data. Combined production of dry whey, WPC and WPI increased 1.9% on a YOY basis throughout the month, finishing higher for the fifth consecutive month.

’19-’20 annual dry whey production rebounded 1.0% YOY from the four year low level experienced throughout the previous production season. ’20-’21 YTD dry whey production has declined by 4.2% on a YOY basis throughout the first seven months of the production season, however.

NFDM/SMP – Combined Production Declines YOY for the First Time in Nine Months, Down 7.1% YOY

U.S. nonfat dry milk (NFDM) production declined 4.0% on a YOY basis throughout Apr ’21, finishing below previous year levels for the first time in the past nine months. Lower NFDM production experienced throughout the Central U.S. (-8.1%) and Western U.S. (-3.6%) more than offset higher Atlantic U.S. (+0.3%) production experienced throughout the month. Despite declining on a YOY basis, NFDM production remained at the second highest seasonal level on record for the month of April.

Production of skim milk powder (SMP), which is more suited to the requirements of most global markets, finished lower on a YOY basis for the fifth consecutive month during Apr ’21, declining by 19.4%. Combined production of NFDM and SMP finished 7.1% below previous year levels, declining on a YOY basis for the first time in the past nine months. Combined NFDM/SMP production had reached record high seasonal levels over eight consecutive months through Mar ’21, prior to declining on a YOY basis throughout the month of April.

’19-’20 annual combined production of NFDM and SMP increased 6.6% YOY, reaching a record high level for the fourth consecutive year. ’20-’21 YTD combined production of NFDM and SMP has increased by an additional 6.0% on a YOY basis throughout the first seven months of the production season, despite the most recent decline, as a 12.0% YOY increase in NFDM production has more than offset a 13.8% YOY decline in SMP production.

Overall, other-than-cheddar cheese production finished most significantly higher YOY on a percentage basis throughout Apr ’21, while skim milk powder and butter production declined most significantly on a percentage basis throughout the month.