Executive Summary

U.S. dairy product production figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through May ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• U.S. butter production reached a record high seasonal level throughout May ’21, finishing 7.6% above previous year levels.
• U.S. cheese production finished 5.0% higher on a YOY basis throughout May ’21, remaining at a record high seasonal level for the seventh consecutive month, however dry whey production finished lower on a YOY basis for the eighth time in the past ten months, down 7.6%.
• Combined production of U.S. nonfat dry milk and skim milk powder increased 12.7% on a YOY basis throughout May ’21, reaching a record high seasonal level. Nonfat dry milk production increased 30.6% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 37.0% YOY decline in skim milk powder production.

Additional Report Details

Butter – Production Reaches a Record High Seasonal Level, Finishes up 7.6% YOY

According to the USDA, U.S. butter production declined seasonally to a six month low level but finished 7.6% higher YOY, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in butter production was the first experienced throughout the past three months and the largest experienced throughout the past five months on a percentage basis. YOY increases in butter production experienced throughout the Central U.S. (+11.3%) and Western U.S. (+8.0%) more than offset an 8.4% YOY decline in Atlantic U.S. production. Previous year seasonal butter production was revised 3.2% below levels previously stated.

’19-’20 annual butter production increased 6.0% YOY, reaching the highest annual level on record for the third consecutive year. ’20-’21 YTD butter production has increased by an additional 1.5% on a YOY basis throughout the first two thirds of the production season.

Cheese – Production Remains at a Record High Seasonal Level, Finishes up 5.0% YOY

U.S. cheese production finished 5.0% higher on a YOY basis throughout May ’21, remaining at a record high seasonal level for the seventh consecutive month. The YOY increase in cheese production was the tenth experienced throughout the past 12 months. YOY increases in cheese production were widespread regionally and led by the Central U.S. (+9.2%), followed by the Atlantic U.S. (+3.7%) and Western U.S. (+0.7%).

Cheddar cheese production increased 8.7% on a YOY basis throughout the month while other-than-cheddar cheese production finished 3.5% higher. The YOY increase in cheddar cheese production was the 12^th experienced in a row.

’19-’20 annual cheese production finished below previous year levels for the first time in the past 19 years, finishing down 0.1%. Other-than-cheddar cheese production declined 0.5% throughout the year, more than offsetting a 0.9% YOY increase in other-than-cheddar cheese production. ’20-’21 YTD cheese production has increased by 3.1% on a YOY basis throughout the first two thirds of the production season, however, and is on pace to reach a record high annual level.

Dry Whey – Production Declines YOY for the Eighth Time in the Past Ten Months, Down 7.6%

U.S. dry whey production declined 7.6% on a YOY basis throughout May ’21, finishing below previous year levels for the eighth time in the past ten months. Lower dry whey production experienced throughout the Central U.S. (-18.1%) more than offset higher Western U.S. (+0.8%) and Atlantic U.S. (+4.6%) production experienced throughout the month. Previous year seasonal dry whey production was revised 2.8% below levels previously stated.

Combined whey protein concentrate (WPC) and whey protein isolate (WPI) production finished higher on a YOY basis for the sixth consecutive month during May ’21, increasing by 5.3%. Combined WPC and WPI production had finished lower on a YOY basis over 17 of the 18 months through Nov ’20, prior to finishing higher on a YOY basis over the six most recent months of available data. Combined production of dry whey, WPC and WPI declined 2.8% on a YOY basis throughout the month, however, finishing lower for the first time in the past six months.

’19-’20 annual dry whey production rebounded 0.7% YOY from the four year low level experienced throughout the previous production season. ’20-’21 YTD dry whey production has declined by 4.6% on a YOY basis throughout the first two thirds of the production season, however.

NFDM/SMP – Combined Production Reaches a Record High Seasonal Level, up 12.7% YOY

U.S. nonfat dry milk (NFDM) production increased 30.6% on a YOY basis throughout May ’21, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in NFDM production was the ninth experienced throughout the past ten months and the largest experienced throughout the past six years on a percentage basis. YOY increases in NFDM production were widespread regionally and led by the Western U.S. (+41.4%), followed by the Central U.S. (+17.7%) and Atlantic U.S. (+11.1%).

Production of skim milk powder (SMP), which is more suited to the requirements of most global markets, finished lower on a YOY basis for the sixth consecutive month during May ’21, declining by 37.0%. Previous year seasonal SMP production was revised 20.4% above levels previously stated while previous month SMP production was revised 12.9% higher. The increase in NFDM production more than offset the decline in SMP production, resulting in combined production finishing 12.7% above previous year levels and reaching a record high seasonal level.

’19-’20 annual combined production of NFDM and SMP increased 7.0% YOY, reaching a record high level for the fourth consecutive year. ’20-’21 YTD combined production of NFDM and SMP has increased by an additional 7.1% on a YOY basis throughout the first two thirds of the production season as a 14.2% YOY increase in NFDM production has more than offset a 15.7% YOY decline in SMP production.

Overall, nonfat dry milk production finished most significantly higher YOY on a percentage basis throughout May ’21, while skim milk powder production declined most significantly on a percentage basis throughout the month.