Executive Summary

U.S. milk production figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Jun ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• U.S. milk production increased on a YOY basis for the 23^rd time in the past 24 months throughout Jun ’21, finishing 2.9% above the previous year and remaining at a record high seasonal level. YOY increases in production on an absolute basis were led by California, followed by Texas and Wisconsin.
• The May ’21 U.S. milk cow herd figure was revised 4,000 head above levels previously stated, reaching a 26 year high level, however the Jun ’21 figure declined 1,000 head from the previous month’s revised figure. The U.S. milk cow herd currently stands at 9.508 million head, finishing 153,000 head above the previous year.
• U.S. milk per cow yields increased 1.3% on a YOY basis throughout Jun ’21, finishing higher for the 67^th time in the past 68 months.

Additional Report Details

According to the USDA, Jun ’21 U.S. milk production volumes declined seasonally to a four month low level but remained 2.9% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a record high seasonal level. Milk production volumes have remained at record high seasonal levels over 13 consecutive months throughout Jun ’21. The month-over-month decline in production volumes of 1.4% was consistent with the ten year average May – June seasonal decline in production of 1.3%.

U.S. milk production volumes had finished higher on a YOY basis over 61 consecutive months from Jan ’14 – Jan ‘19, reaching the longest period of consecutive growth on record, prior to declining by a total of 0.3% from Feb ’19 – Jun ’19. Milk production volumes have rebounded throughout more recent months, finishing higher over 23 of the past 24 months through Jun ’21. The Jun ’21 YOY increase in production was the smallest experienced throughout the past three months however the 12-month rolling average growth rate reached a 13 year high level.

YOY increases in production on a percentage basis were led by South Dakota (+14.7%), followed by Indiana (+8.3%) and Texas (+7.0%), while production volumes finished most significantly lower YOY on a percentage basis within Virginia (-4.0%), Washington (-2.7%) and Pennsylvania (-1.2%). Wisconsin milk production volumes increased on a YOY basis for the 11^th time in the past 12 months, finishing 2.8% above previous year levels. Wisconsin milk production had declined on a YOY basis over seven of eight months through Jun ’20. The YOY increase in Wisconsin milk production volumes was the smallest experienced throughout the past eight months, however. Overall, 18 of the 24 states milk production figures are provided for experienced YOY increases in production throughout the month.

California milk production volumes increased on a YOY basis for the 20^th time in the past 21 months throughout Jun ’21, finishing up 3.1%. California accounted for 18.2% of total U.S. milk production volumes throughout the month, leading all states.

Eight of the top ten largest milk producing states experienced YOY increases in production throughout Jun ’21, as milk production within the top ten milk producing states increased by a weighted average of 3.1% throughout the month. The aforementioned states accounted for nearly three quarters of the total U.S. milk production experienced during Jun ’21. Production volumes outside of the top ten largest milk producing states increased 2.6% on a YOY basis throughout the month.

Jun ’21 YOY increases in milk production on an absolute basis were led by California, followed by Texas and Wisconsin, while YOY declines in production on an absolute basis were most significant throughout Washington.

The May ’21 U.S. milk cow herd figure was revised 4,000 head above levels previous stated, reaching a 26 year high level, however the Jun ’21 figure declined 1,000 head from the previous month’s revised figure. The U.S. milk cow herd currently stands at 9.508 million head, finishing 153,000 head above the previous year.

U.S. milk per cow yields finished 1.3% above previous year levels throughout Jun ’21, finishing higher on a YOY basis for the 67^th time in the past 68 months. Yields experienced throughout the Midwestern states of Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and Illinois declined 0.1% on a YOY basis throughout Jun ’21 however yields experienced throughout the Western states of California, Idaho, Washington and Oregon increased 0.4% YOY.

Month-over-month declines in milk cow herds were led by New Mexico, followed by Washington, while the Texas and South Dakota milk cow herds increased from the previous month throughout Jun ’21.

Jun ’21 YOY increases in milk cow herds continued to be led by Texas, followed by Minnesota and South Dakota, while the Pennsylvania and Vermont milk cow herds finished most significantly lower on a YOY basis throughout the month.