Executive Summary

U.S. cold storage figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Jun ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• U.S. butter stocks remained higher on a YOY basis for the 24^th consecutive month throughout Jun ’21, finishing up 14.4% and reaching a 27 year high level.
• U.S. cheese stocks remained at a record high seasonal level for the second consecutive month throughout Jun ’21, finishing 1.3% above previous year levels.

Additional Report Details

Butter – Stocks Reach a 27 Year High Level, Finish 14.4% Higher YOY

According to the USDA, Jun ’21 U.S. butter stocks increased seasonally to a 27 year high level, finishing 14.4% above previous year levels. Butter stocks have finished higher on a YOY basis over 24 consecutive months through Jun ’21. The month-over-month increase in butter stocks of 2.6 million pounds, or 0.6%, was a slight contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average May – June seasonal decline of 2.4 million pounds, or 0.5%. Butter stocks increased contraseasonally from May – June despite May stock figures being revised 2.5% above levels previously stated. Butter stocks typically reach a seasonal peak throughout the month of May, prior to declining seasonally through the month of November.

On a days of usage basis, Jun ’21 U.S. butter stocks also finished above previous year levels. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of Jun, butter stocks on a days of usage basis increased YOY for the 11^th time in the past 12 months, finishing up 12.3%.

Cheese – Stocks Remain at a Record High Seasonal Level, Finish 1.3% Higher YOY

U.S. cheese stocks declined to a five month low level throughout Jun ’21 but remained at a record high seasonal level for the second consecutive month, finishing 1.3% above previous year levels. The YOY increase in cheese stocks was the seventh experienced throughout the past eight months. American cheese stocks increased 2.1% on a YOY basis throughout the month while other-than-American cheese stocks finished 0.4% above previous year levels. The month-over-month decline in cheese stocks of 23.1 million pounds, or 1.6%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average May – June seasonal build of 1.7 million pounds, or 0.2%.

On a days of usage basis, Jun ’21 U.S. cheese stocks remained below previous year levels, however. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of June, cheese stocks on a days of usage basis declined YOY for the fifth time in the past six months, finishing down 1.3%.

Combined Dairy Product Stocks – Jun ’21 Stocks Projected to Remain at a Record High Seasonal Level

Combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and nonfat dry milk finished 1.3% above previous year levels throughout May ’21, reaching a record high seasonal level and the second highest monthly figure on record. Combined dairy product stocks have reached record high seasonal levels over 15 of the past 16 months through May ’21. Combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and nonfat dry milk are projected to remain higher on a YOY basis throughout Jun ’21 when using actual butter and cheese stock figures and previous month YOY changes in dry whey and nonfat dry milk stocks, increasing by an estimated 1.8%. Jun ’21 dry whey and nonfat dry milk stock figures are scheduled to be available Aug 4^th.