Executive Summary

U.S. dairy product production figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Jun ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• U.S. butter production remained at a record high seasonal level for the second consecutive month throughout Jun ’21, finishing 7.8% above previous year levels.
• U.S. cheese production finished 0.2% higher on a YOY basis throughout Jun ’21, remaining at a record high seasonal level for the eighth consecutive month, however dry whey production remained lower on a YOY basis for the ninth time in the past 11 months, finishing down 1.3% and reaching a five year low seasonal level.
• Combined production of U.S. nonfat dry milk and skim milk powder increased 1.2% on a YOY basis throughout Jun ’21, remaining at a record high seasonal level for the second consecutive month. Nonfat dry milk production increased 19.8% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 46.1% YOY decline in skim milk powder production.

Additional Report Details

Butter – Production Remains at a Record High Seasonal Level, Finishes up 7.8% YOY

According to the USDA, U.S. butter production declined seasonally to an eight month low level but finished 7.8% higher YOY, remaining at a record high seasonal level for the second consecutive month. The YOY increase in butter production was the largest experienced throughout the past six months on a percentage basis. YOY increases in butter production experienced throughout the Central U.S. (+10.9%) and Western U.S. (+7.8%) more than offset a 5.2% YOY decline in Atlantic U.S. production.

’19-’20 annual butter production increased 6.0% YOY, reaching the highest annual level on record for the third consecutive year. ’20-’21 YTD butter production has increased by an additional 2.0% on a YOY basis throughout the first three quarters of the production season.

Cheese – Production Remains at a Record High Seasonal Level, Finishes up 0.2% YOY

U.S. cheese production finished 0.2% higher on a YOY basis throughout Jun ’21, remaining at a record high seasonal level for the eighth consecutive month. The YOY increase in cheese production was the 11^th experienced throughout the past 13 months. A 5.8% YOY increase in Central U.S. cheese production more than offset lower cheese production experienced throughout the Atlantic U.S. (-6.8%) and Western U.S. (-3.9%).

Cheddar cheese production increased 8.2% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 2.7% YOY decline in other-than-cheddar cheese production. The YOY increase in cheddar cheese production was the 12^th experienced in a row.

’19-’20 annual cheese production finished less than 0.1% above previous year levels, increasing on a YOY basis for the 19^th consecutive year. Cheddar cheese production increased 0.8% throughout the year, offsetting a 0.3% YOY decline in other-than-cheddar cheese production. ’20-’21 YTD cheese production has increased by an additional 2.8% on a YOY basis throughout the first three quarters of the production season and is on pace to reach a record high annual level.

Dry Whey – Production Declines YOY for the Ninth Time in the Past 11 Months, Down 1.3%

U.S. dry whey production declined 1.3% on a YOY basis throughout Jun ’21, finishing below previous year levels for the ninth time in the past 11 months and reaching a five year low seasonal level. Lower dry whey production experienced throughout the Central U.S. (-17.8%) more than offset higher Western U.S. (+9.6%) and Atlantic U.S. (+19.7%) production experienced throughout the month.

Combined whey protein concentrate (WPC) and whey protein isolate (WPI) production finished lower on a YOY basis for the first time in the past seven months during Jun ’21, declining by 1.2%. Combined production of dry whey, WPC and WPI declined 1.3% on a YOY basis throughout Jun ’21, finishing lower for the second consecutive month.

’19-’20 annual dry whey production rebounded 0.4% YOY from the four year low level experienced throughout the previous production season. ’20-’21 YTD dry whey production has declined by 4.2% on a YOY basis throughout the first three quarters of the production season, however.

NFDM/SMP – Combined Production Remains at a Record High Seasonal Level, up 1.2% YOY

U.S. nonfat dry milk (NFDM) production increased 19.8% on a YOY basis throughout Jun ’21, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in NFDM production was the tenth experienced throughout the past 11 months. YOY increases in NFDM production were widespread regionally and led by the Western U.S. (+30.0%), followed by the Atlantic U.S. (+12.9%) and Central U.S. (+1.4%).

Production of skim milk powder (SMP), which is more suited to the requirements of most global markets, finished lower on a YOY basis for the seventh consecutive month during Jun ’21, declining by 46.1%. The increase in NFDM production more than offset the decline in SMP production, resulting in combined production finishing 1.2% above previous year levels and remaining at a record high seasonal level for the second consecutive month.

’19-’20 annual combined production of NFDM and SMP increased 7.2% YOY, reaching a record high level for the fourth consecutive year. ’20-’21 YTD combined production of NFDM and SMP has increased by an additional 6.5% on a YOY basis throughout the first three quarters of the production season as a 14.8% YOY increase in NFDM production has more than offset a 19.7% YOY decline in SMP production.

Overall, nonfat dry milk production finished most significantly higher YOY on a percentage basis throughout Jun ’21, while skim milk powder production declined most significantly on a percentage basis throughout the month.