Executive Summary

U.S. cold storage figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Aug ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• Aug ’21 U.S. butter stocks declined seasonally to a five month low level while finishing below previous year levels for the first time in the past 26 months, down 1.2%. Despite declining on a YOY basis, butter stocks remained at the second highest seasonal level experienced throughout the past 28 years.
• Aug ’21 U.S. cheese stocks declined seasonally to a seven month low level but remained at a record high seasonal level for the fourth consecutive month, finishing 4.0% above previous year levels.

Additional Report Details

Butter – Stocks Finish Below Previous Year Levels for the First Time in 26 Months, Down 1.2% YOY

According to the USDA, Aug ’21 U.S. butter stocks declined seasonally to a five month low level while finishing 1.2% below previous year levels. The YOY decline in butter stocks was the first experienced throughout the past 26 months. Despite declining on a YOY basis, butter stocks remained at the second highest seasonal level experienced throughout the past 28 years. The month-over-month decline in butter stocks of 29.5 million pounds, or 7.4%, was largely consistent with the ten year average July – August seasonal decline of 23.1 million pounds, or 8.7%. Butter stocks typically reach a seasonal peak throughout the month of May, prior to declining seasonally through the month of November.

On a days of usage basis, Aug ’21 U.S. butter stocks also finished below previous year levels. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of Aug, butter stocks on a days of usage basis declined YOY for the second consecutive month, finishing down 4.4%.

Cheese – Stocks Remain at a Record High Seasonal Level, Finish 4.0% Higher YOY

Aug ’21 U.S. cheese stocks declined seasonally to a seven month low level but remained at a record high seasonal level for the fourth consecutive month, finishing 4.0% above previous year levels. The YOY increase in cheese stocks was the ninth experienced throughout the past ten months. American cheese stocks finished 4.3% higher on a YOY basis throughout the month while other-than-American cheese stocks finished 3.7% above previous year levels. The month-over-month decline in cheese stocks of 21.1 million pounds, or 1.5%, was largely consistent with the ten year average July – August seasonal decline of 25.3 million pounds, or 2.1%.

On a days of usage basis, Aug ’21 U.S. cheese stocks also finished above previous year levels. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of August, cheese stocks on a days of usage basis increased YOY for the third consecutive month, finishing up 1.4%.

Combined Dairy Product Stocks – Aug ’21 Stocks Projected to Remain at a Record High Seasonal Level

Combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and nonfat dry milk finished 5.4% above previous year levels throughout Jul ’21, remaining at a record high seasonal level for the 16^th time in the past 17 months. Combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and nonfat dry milk are projected to remain at a record high seasonal level throughout Aug ’21 when using actual butter and cheese stock figures and previous month YOY changes in dry whey and nonfat dry milk stocks, increasing by an estimated 1.7% on a YOY basis. Aug ’21 dry whey and nonfat dry milk stock figures are scheduled to be available Oct 4^th.