Executive Summary

U.S. cold storage figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Sep ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• Sep ’21 U.S. butter stocks declined seasonally to a nine month low level while finishing 4.0% below previous year levels. Despite declining on a YOY basis, butter stocks remained at the second highest seasonal level experienced throughout the past 28 years.
• Sep ’21 U.S. cheese stocks increased contraseasonally from the previous month while remaining at a record high seasonal level for the fifth consecutive month, finishing 7.7% above previous year levels.

Additional Report Details

Butter – Stocks Remain Below Previous Year Levels for the Second Consecutive Month, Down 4.0%

According to the USDA, Sep ’21 U.S. butter stocks declined seasonally to a nine month low level while finishing 4.0% below previous year levels. The YOY decline in butter stocks was the second experienced in a row and the largest experienced throughout the past 28 months on a percentage basis. Butter stocks had finished above previous year levels over 25 consecutive months through Jul ’21, prior to declining on a YOY basis over the two most recently available data points. Despite declining on a YOY basis, butter stocks remained at the second highest seasonal level experienced throughout the past 28 years. The month-over-month decline in butter stocks of 32.6 million pounds, or 9.0%, was larger than the ten year average August – September seasonal decline of 22.0 million pounds, or 8.6%. Butter stocks typically reach a seasonal peak throughout the month of May, prior to declining seasonally through the month of November.

On a days of usage basis, Sep ’21 U.S. butter stocks also finished below previous year levels. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of Sep, butter stocks on a days of usage basis declined YOY for the third consecutive month, finishing down 7.3%.

Cheese – Stocks Remain at a Record High Seasonal Level, Finish 7.7% Higher YOY

Sep ’21 U.S. cheese stocks increased contraseasonally from the previous month, finishing 7.7% above previous year levels and remaining at a record high seasonal level for the fifth consecutive month. The YOY increase in cheese stocks was the tenth experienced throughout the past 11 months and the largest experienced throughout the past 35 months on a percentage basis. American cheese stocks finished 9.3% higher on a YOY basis throughout the month while other-than-American cheese stocks finished 5.7% above previous year levels. The month-over-month increase in cheese stocks of 25.5 million pounds, or 1.8%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average August – September seasonal decline of 12.3 million pounds, or 1.1%. The seasonal build in cheese stocks the largest experienced throughout the past 68 years on a percentage basis.

On a days of usage basis, Sep ’21 U.S. cheese stocks also finished above previous year levels. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of September, cheese stocks on a days of usage basis increased YOY for the fourth consecutive month, finishing up 4.9%.

Combined Dairy Product Stocks – Sep ’21 Stocks Projected to Remain at a Record High Seasonal Level

Combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and nonfat dry milk finished 1.8% above previous year levels throughout Aug ’21, remaining at a record high seasonal level for the 18^th time in the past 19 months. Combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and nonfat dry milk are projected to remain at a record high seasonal level throughout Sep ’21 when using actual butter and cheese stock figures and previous month YOY changes in dry whey and nonfat dry milk stocks, increasing by an estimated 3.9% on a YOY basis. Sep ’21 dry whey and nonfat dry milk stock figures are scheduled to be available Nov 4^th.