Executive Summary

EU-27+UK milk deliveries provided by Eurostat and the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board of the United Kingdom were recently updated with values spanning through Oct ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• Oct ’21 EU-27+UK milk deliveries finished 0.4% below the record high seasonal level experienced throughout the previous year. The YOY decline in EU-27+UK milk deliveries was the third experienced throughout the past four months.
• Oct ’21 YOY declines in milk deliveries were led by Germany, followed by the Netherlands and France, while milk deliveries increased most significantly from the previous year throughout Italy, followed by Ireland. Overall, 16 of the 28 countries experienced YOY declines in milk deliveries throughout the month.
• EU-27+UK beef & dairy cow slaughter rates reached a ten year low seasonal level throughout Sep ’21, finishing 4.7% below previous year levels when normalizing for slaughter days.

Additional Report Details

Milk Production

According to Eurostat and the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board of the United Kingdom, Oct ’21 EU-27+UK milk deliveries declined seasonally to an 11 month low level while finishing 0.4% below previous year figures. Despite declining on a YOY basis, Oct ’21 milk deliveries remained at the second highest seasonal level on record.

Figures for Spain, Austria, Sweden, Greece and Luxembourg are not yet available and are based on the previous month YOY change in deliveries. Spain, Austria, Sweden, Greece and Luxembourg have accounted for just 9.0% of total EU-27+UK milk deliveries throughout the past 12 months.

’20-’21 annual EU-27+UK milk deliveries finished 0.5% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a record high level for the fourth consecutive year. ’21-’22 YTD EU-27+UK milk deliveries have increased by an additional 0.5% throughout the first seven months of the production season, despite the recently experienced declines.

The Oct ’21 YOY decline in EU-27+UK milk deliveries was the third experienced throughout the past four months. EU-27+UK milk deliveries had finished higher on a YOY basis over 26 of 29 months through Jun ’21, prior to finishing below previous year levels over three of the four most recent months of available data.

Oct ’21 YOY declines in milk deliveries on an absolute basis were led by Germany, followed by the Netherlands and France, while YOY increases in deliveries on an absolute basis were led by Italy and Ireland.

YOY declines in milk deliveries on a percentage basis were led by Bulgaria (-9.8%), followed by Malta (-8.9%) and Belgium (-5.1%), while increases in milk deliveries on a percentage basis were led by Italy (+9.0%), followed by Hungary (+7.4%) and Greece (+6.9%).

Six of the top ten milk producing member states experienced YOY declines in milk deliveries during Oct ’21, as deliveries within the top ten milk producing member states declined by a weighted average of 0.5% throughout the month. The top ten EU-27+UK milk producing member states accounted for over 85% of the total EU-27+UK milk deliveries experienced throughout the month. Milk deliveries outside of the top ten milk producing member states increased by 0.2% on a YOY basis, however. Overall, 16 of the 28 countries experienced YOY declines in milk deliveries during Oct ’21.

Beef & Dairy Cow Slaughter

EU-27+UK beef & dairy cow slaughter finished 4.7% below previous year levels when normalizing for slaughter days, reaching a ten year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in EU-27+UK beef & dairy cow slaughter rates was the third experienced throughout the past four months. YOY declines in beef & dairy cow slaughter were most significant throughout the United Kingdom, followed by France and Germany.

’20-’21 annual EU-27+UK bovine slaughter declined on a YOY basis for the second consecutive year, finishing down 3.4% and reaching a seven year low level. The USDA is projecting a 1.0% YOY decline in the EU-27+UK dairy cow herd throughout the 2021 calendar, following the general trend towards an overall smaller herd size and more productive animals.