Executive Summary

U.S. milk production figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Nov ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• Nov ’21 U.S. milk production volumes rebounded seasonally from the 12 month low level throughout the previous month but remained 0.4% below previous year levels. The YOY decline in milk production volumes was the first experienced throughout the past 18 months. YOY declines in production on an absolute basis were led by New Mexico, followed by Washington and Pennsylvania. Wisconsin, South Dakota and Texas milk production volumes finished most significantly above previous year levels throughout the month. Previous month production figures were revised 0.6% above levels previously stated, finishing slightly higher YOY.
• The Oct ’21 U.S. milk cow herd figure was revised 5,000 head below levels previously stated while the Nov ’21 figure declined an additional 10,000 head from the previous month’s revised figure, reaching a 15 month low level. The U.S. milk cow herd currently stands at 9.385 million head, down 122,000 head from the 26 year high level experienced throughout May ’21 and finishing 47,000 head below the previous year.
• U.S. milk per cow yields finished 0.2% above previous year levels throughout Nov ’21, remaining slightly higher on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month.

Additional Report Details

According to the USDA, Nov ’21 U.S. milk production volumes rebounded seasonally from the 12 month low level experienced throughout the previous month but remained 0.4% below previous year figures. Milk production volumes had reached record high seasonal levels over 17 consecutive months through the month of October, prior to declining on a YOY basis throughout Nov ’21. The month-over-month increase in production volumes of 0.1% was smaller than the ten year average October – November increase of 0.5%. Previous month production figures were revised 0.6% above previously stated figures, resulting in the smaller than typical seasonal increase.

U.S. milk production volumes had finished higher on a YOY basis over 61 consecutive months from Jan ’14 – Jan ‘19, reaching the longest period of consecutive growth on record, prior to declining by a total of 0.3% from Feb ’19 – Jun ’19. Milk production volumes had rebounded throughout more recent months, finishing higher over 27 of the past 28 months through Oct ’21. The Nov ’21 YOY decline in production was the first experienced throughout the past 18 months.

’20-’21 annual U.S. milk production volumes finished 2.4% above previous year levels, reaching a 13 year high annual growth rate. The USDA is projecting U.S. milk production volumes will increase 0.7% throughout the 2022 calendar year.

YOY declines in production on a percentage basis were led by New Mexico (-13.2%), followed by Washington (-6.7%) and Pennsylvania (-3.5%), while production volumes finished most significantly higher YOY on a percentage basis within South Dakota (+16.7%), Texas (+2.8%) and Iowa (+2.7%). Overall, 15 of the 24 states milk production figures are provided for experienced YOY declines in production throughout the month.

California milk production volumes increased 1.0% on a YOY basis throughout Nov ’21, finishing above previous year levels for the second consecutive month. Previous month California production figures were revised 3.3% above previously stated levels. California accounted for 18.7% of total U.S. milk production volumes throughout the month, leading all states.

Five of the top ten largest milk producing states experienced YOY declines in production throughout Nov ’21, as milk production within the top ten milk producing states declined by a weighted average of 0.2% throughout the month. The aforementioned states accounted for nearly three quarters of the total U.S. milk production experienced during Nov ’21. Production volumes outside of the top ten largest milk producing states declined by 1.0% on a YOY basis throughout the month.

Nov ’21 YOY declines in milk production on an absolute basis were led by New Mexico, followed by Washington and Pennsylvania, while YOY increases in production on an absolute basis were most significant throughout Wisconsin, followed by South Dakota and Texas.

The Oct ’21 U.S. milk cow herd figure was revised 5,000 head below levels previous stated while the Nov ’21 figure declined an additional 10,000 head from the previous month’s revised figure, reaching a 15 month low level. The U.S. milk cow herd currently stands at 9.385 million head, down 122,000 head from the 26 year high level experienced throughout May ’21 and finishing 47,000 head below the previous year.

Month-over-month declines in milk cow herds were led by New Mexico, followed by California, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Washington, Ohio and Arizona. The Kansas milk cow herd increased slightly from the previous month.

Nov ’21 YOY declines in milk cow herds continued to be led by New Mexico, followed by Washington and Pennsylvania, while the South Dakota, Wisconsin and Texas milk cow herds finished most significantly higher on a YOY basis throughout the month.

U.S. milk per cow yields finished 0.2% above previous year levels throughout Nov ’21, remaining slightly higher on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month. U.S. milk per cow yields had finished below previous year levels just once over a five and a half year period ending Jul ’21, prior to declining throughout the months of August and September. Oct ’21 yields were revised above previous year levels while Nov ’21 yields remained slightly higher YOY.

Yields experienced throughout the Midwestern states of Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and Illinois increased 0.4% on a YOY basis throughout Nov ’21 while yields experienced throughout the Western states of California, Idaho, Washington and Oregon finished 0.1% above previous year levels. Previous month California milk yields were revised 3.4% above levels previously stated.