Executive Summary

U.S. grocery store sales have remained significantly above pre-pandemic levels through Nov ’21 while food service & drinking place sales continue to reach record high levels. Important points to consider include:

• U.S. grocery store sales remained significantly above pre-pandemic levels for the 21^st consecutive month through Nov ’21, reaching the second highest monthly level on record, while food service & drinking place sales reached a new record high monthly level throughout the month. Nov ’21 combined grocery store and food service & drinking place sales reached a record high monthly level when adjusted for inflation, finishing 1.6% above pre-pandemic trendline figures.
• The National Restaurant Association’s Restaurant Performance Index remained in an expansionary state for the tenth consecutive month throughout Nov ’21, rebounding to a four month high level. The RPI Expectations Index, which measures restaurant operators’ six-month outlook on industry indicators, also rebounded to a four month high level throughout Nov ’21.
• Seated diner figures provided by OpenTable returned to a seven month low level throughout Dec ’21, finishing 13.0% below pre-pandemic seasonal levels.

Grocery Store & Food Service Sales

COVID-19 has resulted in a pronounced divergence in grocery store and food service & drinking place sales. Grocery stores sales reached a record high monthly level throughout Mar ’20 as many stocked up on staples in anticipation of lockdowns while food service & drinking place sales declined to a 16 year low level throughout Apr ’20 as stay-at-home orders were placed.

Grocery store sales have remained significantly above pre-pandemic seasonal levels over 21 consecutive months through Nov ’21. Nov ’21 grocery store sales reached a record high seasonal level, finishing 8.7% above the previous year and 19.8% above pre-pandemic seasonal levels. Grocery store sales reached the second highest monthly level on record throughout Nov ’21, trailing only the Mar ’20 monthly sales. 2020 annual grocery store sales finished 11.3% higher on a YOY basis, while 2021 YTD sales are up an additional 3.7% heading into the final month of the year.

Food service & drinking place sales remained below pre-pandemic seasonal levels over 12 consecutive months through Feb ’21, prior to fully rebounding over the nine most recent months of available data. Nov ’21 food service & drinking place sales finished 37.4% above previous year levels and 13.2% above pre-pandemic seasonal levels, reaching a record high monthly level for the eighth consecutive month. 2020 annual food service & drinking place sales finished 19.4% lower on a YOY basis, reaching a six year low level.

Nov ’21 combined grocery store and food service & drinking place sales reached a record high monthly level when adjusted for inflation, finishing 1.6% above pre-pandemic trendline figures.

Restaurant Performance Index

The National Restaurant Association’s Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) rebounded to a four month high level of 104.8 throughout Nov ’21, remaining in an expansionary state for the tenth consecutive month. The RPI is a statistical barometer that measures the overall health of the U.S. restaurant industry. A value above 100 signals a period of expansion while a value below 100 signals a period of contraction, with the distance from 100 signifying the magnitude of the expansion or contraction.

The RPI reached a record high level of 106.3 throughout Apr ’21 and has remained within an expansionary state since. The elevated RPI continues to overstate the current health of the U.S. restaurant industry, however, due to dampened year-ago comparisons for indicators such as same-store sales and customer traffic indicators. 75% of restaurant operators indicated customer traffic was above previous year figures throughout Nov ’21, while 83% of restaurant operators reported higher same-store sales. Two-year comparisons remain mixed, with 56% of restaurant operators saying their Nov ’21 sales were up from Nov ’19 levels.

The RPI has indicated that the U.S. restaurant industry expanded over three and a half consecutive years through Feb ’20, prior to contracting throughout 11 consecutive months through Jan ’21. RPI figures reached record low levels throughout Mar-Apr ’20, consistent with the declines experienced in food service & drinking place sales. RPI figures have been provided since early 2002.

The RPI has exhibited a moderate correlation with domestic cheese demand, historically, as the restaurant industry has been a main source of consumption growth. The correlation in the RPI and YOY growth in domestic cheese demand was most pronounced following the financial crisis of 2008, when both declined significantly, each reaching record low levels on a 12-month rolling average basis. Similar declines have been exhibited through the COVID-19 pandemic, with each metric rebounding since.

The RPI Current Situation Index, which measures current industry trend indicators, rebounded to a four month high level of 105.4 throughout Nov ’21. The RPI Current Situation Index had ranged from values of 92.8 – 96.8 from Mar ’20 – Feb ’21, prior to reaching record high levels over more recent months.

The RPI Expectations Index, which measures restaurant operators’ six-month outlook on industry indicators, also rebounded to a four month high level throughout Nov ’21, reaching a level of 104.1.

59% of operators expect their sales volume in six months to be higher than it was during the same period of the previous year, reaching a four month high level. 37% of operators expect economic conditions to improve in six months, reaching a five month high level.

OpenTable Seated Diners

Total U.S. seated diner figures provided by OpenTable exhibited a similar pattern to the food service & drinking place sales throughout 2020. Seated diner figures showed YOY restaurant activity steadily rebounding from the Apr ’20 lows through the month of September, prior to remaining largely flat throughout the month of October and slipping once again throughout the months of November and December.

More recently, declines in seated diners have subsided as figures have steadily rebounded throughout the first half of 2021, prior to remaining slightly below pre-pandemic levels over more recent months. When indexed to 2019 levels, Dec ’21 seated diners returned to a seven month low level, finishing 13.0% below pre-pandemic seasonal levels.

TSA Checkpoint Travel Numbers

Monthly TSA checkpoint travel numbers, a data series tangentially related to the rebound in food service sales, reached a 17 month high level throughout Jul ’21 prior to declining seasonally throughout the final five months of the 2021 calendar year. Dec ’21 TSA checkpoint travel numbers remained sharply above previous year figures for the tenth consecutive month but finished 16.2% below 2019 seasonal levels. The deviation from pre-pandemic seasonal levels was the second smallest experienced since the beginning of the pandemic, remaining near the 16.0% decline from 2019 levels experienced throughout the month of November.