Executive Summary

U.S. dairy export figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Nov ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• U.S. butterfat export volumes finished 195.8% higher on a YOY basis throughout Nov ’21, reaching an eight year high seasonal level. The U.S. remained a slight net importer of butterfat throughout the month, however.
• U.S. cheese export volumes finished 39.9% higher on a YOY basis throughout Nov ’21, remaining at a record high seasonal level for the fifth consecutive month. Dry whey export volumes finished above previous year levels for the first time in the past six months, reaching a four year high seasonal level, however whey protein concentrate export volumes remained below previous year levels for the third consecutive month throughout Nov ’21.
• U.S. nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder export volumes finished 24.7% above previous year levels throughout Nov ’21, reaching a record high seasonal level.

Additional Report Details

Butter – Exports Reach an Eight Year High Seasonal Level, up 195.8% YOY

According to the USDA, Nov ’21 U.S. export volumes of butterfat finished 195.8% above previous year levels, reaching an eight year high seasonal level. The YOY increase in butterfat export volumes was the 12^th experienced in a row. The U.S. remained a slight net importer of butterfat throughout the month, however.

’20-’21 annual butterfat export volumes finished 113.1% above the four year low level experienced throughout the previous production season, reaching a seven year high annual level. ’21-’22 YTD butterfat export volumes have increased by an additional 143.1% on a YOY basis throughout the first two months of the production season.

Canada continued to be the top destination for U.S. butterfat export volumes throughout Nov ’21, accounting for nearly a third of the total export volumes. Canada, Mexico and South Korea combined to account for over half of all butterfat export volumes throughout the month.

Butterfat export volumes destined to Canada increased most significantly on a YOY basis throughout the month, followed by shipments destined to Mexico, while butterfat export volumes destined to Guyana finished most significantly lower.

Canada and Mexico have historically been the largest importers of U.S. butterfat, accounting for over half of the total U.S. export volumes experienced throughout the past five years. U.S. butterfat export volumes destined to Canada have increased 86.5% on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months while volumes destined to Mexico have increased by 6.6% throughout the period. U.S. butterfat export volumes destined to all other countries have increased by 206.3% throughout the past 12 months, led by increases in volumes destined to Bahrain.

Cheese – Exports Remain at a Record High Seasonal Level, up 39.9% YOY

Nov ’21 U.S. cheese export volumes finished 39.9% above previous year levels, remaining at a record high seasonal level for the fifth consecutive month. Cheddar cheese export volumes increased 175.7% on a YOY basis throughout the month while other-than-cheddar cheese export volumes finished 28.4% above previous year levels.

’20-’21 annual cheese export volumes finished 4.6% above the previous year levels, reaching a record high annual level for the first time in the past seven years. ’21-’22 YTD cheese export volumes have increased by an additional 41.8% on a YOY basis throughout the first two months of the production season.

Mexico was the top destination for U.S. cheese export volumes throughout Nov ’21, accounting for over a quarter of the total export volumes. Mexico, South Korea and Japan combined to account for half of all cheese export volumes throughout the month.

YOY increases in cheese export volumes were led by product destined to Mexico, followed by volumes destined to South Korea and Australia, while cheese export volumes destined to Japan finished most significantly lower.

Mexico and South Korea have historically been the largest importers of U.S. cheese, accounting for nearly 45% of total U.S. cheese export volumes throughout the past five years. Combined U.S. cheese export volumes destined to Mexico and South Korea have increased 5.9% on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months.

Whey – Dry Whey Export Volumes Higher YOY, Whey Protein Concentrate Volumes Remain Lower

U.S. dry whey export volumes increased 7.7% on a YOY basis throughout Nov ’21, reaching a four year high seasonal level. The YOY increase in dry whey export volumes was the first experienced throughout the past six months.

’20-’21 annual dry whey export volumes finished 21.8% above previous year levels, reaching a three year high annual level. ’21-’22 YTD dry whey export volumes have declined by 9.3% on a YOY basis throughout the first two months of the production season, however.

U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) export volumes declined 14.4% on a YOY basis during Nov ’21, remaining below previous year levels for the third consecutive month. WPC export volumes reached a three year low seasonal level throughout Nov ’21.

’20-’21 annual WPC export volumes finished 6.2% above previous year levels, reaching a three year high annual level. ’21-’22 YTD WPC export volumes have declined by 17.5% on a YOY basis throughout the first two months of the production season, however.

China continued to be the top destination for U.S. whey export volumes throughout Nov ’21, accounting for nearly a third of the total export volumes. China, Mexico and Vietnam combined to account for over half of all whey export volumes throughout the month.

YOY increases in whey export volumes were led by product destined to Mexico, followed by volumes destined to Vietnam and New Zealand, while volumes destined to China finished most significantly lower on a YOY basis throughout the month.

China has historically been the largest importer of U.S. whey products, accounting for nearly 40% of the total U.S. whey export volumes throughout the past five years. U.S. whey export volumes destined to China have increased 38.8% YOY throughout the past 12 months, more than offsetting a 0.2% YOY decline in whey export volumes destined to all other countries over the same period.

NFDM/SMP – Exports Rebound to a Record High Seasonal Level, up 24.7% YOY

Nov ’21 U.S. export volumes of nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) finished 24.7% above previous year levels, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in NFDM/SMP export volumes was the eighth experienced throughout the past ten months and the largest experienced throughout the past eight months on a percentage basis.

’20-’21 annual NFDM/SMP export volumes finished 8.9% above previous year levels, reaching a record high annual level for the second consecutive year. ’21-’22 YTD NFDM/SMP export volumes have increased by an additional 4.5% on a YOY basis throughout the first two months of the production season.

Mexico was the top destination for U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes throughout Nov ’21, accounting for over a third of the total export volumes. Mexico and the Philippines combined to account for half of all NFDM/SMP export volumes throughout the month.

YOY increases in NFDM/SMP export volumes were led by product destined to the Philippines, followed by volumes destined to Vietnam and Columbia, while export volumes destined to Indonesia finished most significantly lower on a YOY basis throughout the month.

Mexico has historically been the largest importer of U.S. NFDM/SMP, accounting for over 40% of all U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes throughout the past five years. U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes destined to Mexico have increased 18.5% on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months while volumes destined to all other countries have increased 4.6% YOY over the same period.

Export Volumes Normalized to Production

U.S. butterfat, cheese and NFDM/SMP export volumes as a percentage of production finished above previous year figures during Nov ’21 while dry whey export volumes as a percentage of production finished slightly below previous year levels.

Overall, U.S. dairy export volumes were estimated to be equivalent to 17.9% of total U.S. milk-solids production during Nov ’21 while dairy import volumes were estimated to be equivalent to 3.6% of total U.S. milk-solids production. Nov ’21 net dairy trade was estimated to have increased 24.1% on a YOY basis, finishing higher for the 19^th time in the past 20 months.

U.S. dairy exports as a percentage of milk-solids production are estimated to have increased 18.9% on a YOY basis throughout Nov ’21, remaining at a record high seasonal level for the seventh consecutive month. The YOY increase in dairy exports as a percentage of milk-solids production was the tenth experienced in a row.

’20-’21 annual dairy exports as a percentage of milk-solids production finished 8.5% above previous year levels, reaching a record high annual level for the first time in the past three years. ’21-’22 YTD dairy exports as a percentage of milk-solids production have increased by an additional 10.7% on a YOY basis throughout the first two months of the production season.

Nov ’21 U.S. dairy imports as a percentage of milk-solids production are estimated to have increased 1.5% on a YOY basis, finishing above previous year levels for just the third time in the past 12 months. Nov ’21 U.S. dairy imports as a percentage of milk-solids production are estimated to have reached a three year high seasonal level.

’20-’21 annual dairy imports as a percentage of milk-solids production finished 9.5% below previous year levels, reaching a ten year low annual level. ’21-’22 YTD dairy imports as a percentage of milk-solids production have declined by an additional 9.1% on a YOY basis throughout the first two months of the production season, despite the most recent increase.

Net trade of U.S. NFDM/SMP continued to outpace that of butter, cheese and dry whey as import volumes remain minimal. Net dry whey trade volumes exceeded net cheese trade volumes for the third consecutive month throughout Nov ’21 while the U.S. finished as a slight net importer of butter.