Executive Summary

U.S. dairy product production figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Nov ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• Nov ’21 U.S. butter production declined 9.6% on a YOY basis, remaining at a three year low seasonal level for the third consecutive month.
• U.S. cheese production finished 1.6% above previous year levels throughout Nov ’21, remaining at a record high seasonal level for the 12^th time in the past 13 months. Dry whey production finished higher on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month, increasing by 8.7%, while combined dry whey, whey protein concentrate and whey protein isolate production reached a six year high seasonal level.
• Combined production of U.S. nonfat dry milk and skim milk powder declined 17.8% on a YOY basis throughout Nov ’21, finishing below previous year levels for the fifth consecutive month and reaching a three year low seasonal level. Nonfat dry milk production declined 15.0% on a YOY basis throughout the month while skim milk powder production finished 24.5% below previous year levels.

Additional Report Details

Butter – Production Remains at a Three Year Low Seasonal Level, Down 9.6% YOY

According to the USDA, U.S. butter production increased seasonally to a five month high level but finished 9.6% below previous year levels, remaining at a three year low seasonal level for the third consecutive month. The YOY decline in butter production was the largest experienced throughout the past seven months on a percentage basis. YOY declines in butter production were widespread regionally and led by the Atlantic U.S. (-10.7%), followed by the Central U.S. (-9.7%) and the Western U.S. (-9.4%).

’20-’21 annual butter production finished 0.8% above previous year levels, reaching the highest annual level on record for the fourth consecutive year. ’21-’22 YTD butter production has declined by 5.3% on a YOY basis throughout the first two months of the production season, however, and is on pace to reach a three year low level.

Cheese – Production Remains at a Record High Seasonal Level, Finishes up 1.6% YOY

U.S. cheese production finished 1.6% higher on a YOY basis throughout Nov ’21, remaining at a record high seasonal level for the 12^th time in the past 13 months. YOY increases in cheese production experienced throughout the Central U.S. (+4.3%) more than offset lower production experienced throughout the Western U.S. (-0.2%) and the Atlantic U.S. (-2.7%).

Other-than-cheddar cheese production increased 4.0% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 4.4% YOY decline in cheddar cheese production. The YOY decline in cheddar cheese production was the second experienced in a row. Cheddar cheese production had finished above previous year levels over 14 of 15 months through Sep ’21, prior to declining throughout the two most recent months of available data.

’20-’21 annual cheese production finished 3.1% above previous year levels, increasing on a YOY basis for the 20^th consecutive year and reaching a record high annual level. Cheddar cheese production increased 4.0% on a YOY basis throughout the year while other-than-cheddar cheese production finished 2.7% above previous year levels. ’21-’22 YTD cheese production has increased by an additional 1.5% on a YOY basis throughout the first two months of the production season.

Dry Whey – Production Remains Higher YOY for the Second Consecutive Month, Finishes up 8.7%

U.S. dry whey production increased 8.7% on a YOY basis throughout Nov ’21, finishing above previous year levels for the second consecutive month. YOY increases in dry whey production were widespread regionally and led by the Atlantic U.S. (+12.2%), followed by the Central U.S. (+9.8%) and the Western U.S. (+2.3%).

Combined whey protein concentrate (WPC) and whey protein isolate (WPI) production volumes also finished above previous year levels throughout Nov ’21. Combined WPC and WPI production remained above previous year levels for the tenth time in the past 12 months during Nov ’21, increasing by 19.3% and reaching a record high seasonal level. Combined production of dry whey, WPC and WPI increased 13.0% on a YOY basis throughout Nov ’21, finishing above previous year levels for the second consecutive month and reaching a six year high seasonal level.

’20-’21 annual dry whey production finished 5.3% below previous year levels, reaching a seven year low annual level. ’20-’21 annual combined production of dry whey, WPC and WPI declined 2.2% on a YOY basis, reaching an eight year low annual level. ’21-’22 YTD dry whey production has rebounded by 8.6% on a YOY basis throughout the first two months of the production season, however.

NFDM/SMP – Combined Production Declines to a Three Year Low Seasonal Level, Down 17.8% YOY

Nov ’21 U.S. nonfat dry milk (NFDM) production finished 15.0% below previous year levels, reaching a three year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in NFDM production was the fifth experienced in a row. YOY declines in NFDM production were widespread regionally and led by the Central U.S. (-26.2%), followed by the Atlantic U.S. (-16.0%) and the Western U.S. (-10.3%).

Production of skim milk powder (SMP), which is more suited to the requirements of most global markets, finished lower on a YOY basis for the 11^th time in the past 12 months during Nov ’21, declining by 24.5%. Previous month SMP production volumes were revised 17.8% above previously stated levels while previous year SMP production volumes were revised 24.0% higher. Combined production of NFDM and SMP production finished 17.8% below previous year levels, declining on a YOY basis for the fifth consecutive month and reaching a three year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in combined production of NFDM and SMP was the largest experienced throughout the past 12 years on a percentage basis.

’20-’21 annual combined production of NFDM and SMP increased 3.1% YOY, reaching a record high annual level for the fifth consecutive year. Annual NFDM production volumes finished 9.3% above previous year levels, more than offsetting a 14.4% YOY decline in SMP production volumes. ’21-’22 YTD combined production of NFDM and SMP production has declined by 12.3% on a YOY basis throughout the first two months of the production season, however.

Overall, skim milk powder production finished most significantly lower YOY on a percentage basis throughout Nov ’21, while dry whey production increased most significantly on a percentage basis throughout the month.