Executive Summary

U.S. dairy dry product stock figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Nov ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• U.S. dry whey stocks remained lower on a YOY basis for the 14^th time in the past 15 months throughout Nov ’21, finishing 8.7% below previous year figures and reaching a five year low seasonal level.
• Nov ’21 U.S. nonfat dry milk stocks declined contraseasonally to a six year low level, finishing 21.0% below previous year levels. Nonfat dry milk stocks reached an eight year low seasonal level for the month of November.

Additional Report Details

Dry Whey – Stocks Finish at a Five Year Low Seasonal Level, Down 8.7% YOY

According to the USDA, Nov ’21 month-end dry whey stocks rebounded from the five year low level experienced throughout the previous month but remained 8.7% below previous year levels, reaching a five year low seasonal level for the month of November. Dry whey stocks have remained below previous year levels over 14 of 15 months through Nov ’21.

The month-over-month increase in dry whey stocks of 3.6 million pounds, or 6.2%, was slightly greater than the ten year average October – November seasonal build in dry whey stocks of 1.3 million pounds, or 2.3%. Dry whey production increased 8.7% on a YOY basis throughout Nov ’21, finishing higher for the second consecutive month.

On a days of usage basis, Nov ’21 U.S. dry whey stocks also remained lower YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of November, dry whey stocks on a days of usage basis finished 6.9% lower YOY, declining on a YOY basis for the 14^th time in the past 15 months and reaching a three year low seasonal level.

Nonfat Dry Milk – Stocks Decline to a Six Year Low Level, Finish 21.0% Lower YOY

Nov ’21 month-end nonfat dry milk (NFDM) stocks declined contraseasonally to a six year low level, finishing 21.0% below previous year levels. NFDM stocks reached an eight year low seasonal level for the month of November. The YOY decline in NFDM stocks was the second experienced in a row and the largest experienced throughout the past two years on a percentage basis.

The month-over-month decline in NFDM stocks of 29.1 million pounds, or 12.9%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average October – November seasonal build in stocks of 12.0 million pounds, or 6.8%. The seasonal decline in NFDM stocks was the largest experienced on record. NFDM production declined 15.0% on a YOY basis throughout Nov ’21.

On a days of usage basis, Nov ’21 U.S. NFDM stocks also finished lower YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of November, NFDM stocks on a days of usage basis finished 22.5% below previous year figures, declining on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month.

Combined Dairy Product Stocks – Stocks Finish Lower YOY for the First Time in Seven Months

Combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and NFDM finished 1.3% below previous year levels throughout Nov ’21. The YOY decline in combined stocks was the first experienced throughout the past seven months and just the second experienced throughout the past 22 months. An 18.4% YOY decline in combined dry whey and NFDM/SMP stock volumes more than offset a 2.1% YOY increase in combined butter and cheese stock volumes throughout the month.