Executive Summary

EU-27+UK milk deliveries provided by Eurostat and the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board of the United Kingdom were recently updated with values spanning through Dec ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• Dec ’21 EU-27+UK milk deliveries remained below previous year levels for the fourth consecutive month, finishing down 1.7%. The YOY decline in EU-27+UK milk deliveries was the largest experienced throughout the past five years on a percentage basis.
• Dec ’21 YOY declines in milk deliveries were led by Germany, followed by France and the Netherlands, while milk deliveries increased most significantly from the previous year throughout Poland. Overall, 16 of the 28 countries experienced YOY declines in milk deliveries throughout the month.
• EU-27+UK beef & dairy cow slaughter rates declined to an eight year low seasonal level throughout Nov ’21, finishing 1.8% below previous year levels when normalizing for slaughter days.

Additional Report Details

Milk Production

According to Eurostat and the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board of the United Kingdom, Dec ’21 EU-27+UK milk deliveries rebounded seasonally from the two year low level experienced throughout the previous month but finished 1.7% below previous year levels.

Figures for Spain, Austria, Greece, Croatia and Luxembourg are not yet available and are based on the previous month YOY change in deliveries. Spain, Austria, Greece, Croatia and Luxembourg have accounted for just 7.6% of total EU-27+UK milk deliveries throughout the past 12 months.

’20-’21 annual EU-27+UK milk deliveries finished 0.5% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a record high level for the fourth consecutive year. ’21-’22 YTD EU-27+UK milk deliveries have increased by an additional 0.1% throughout the first three quarters of the production season, despite recently experienced declines.

The Dec ’21 YOY decline in EU-27+UK milk deliveries was the fourth experienced in a row and the largest experienced throughout the past five years on a percentage basis. EU-27+UK milk deliveries had finished higher on a YOY basis over 26 of 29 months through Jun ’21, prior to finishing below previous year levels over five of the six most recent months of available data.

Dec ’21 YOY declines in milk deliveries on an absolute basis were led by Germany, followed by France and the Netherlands, while YOY increases in deliveries on an absolute basis were led by Poland.

YOY declines in milk deliveries on a percentage basis were led by Bulgaria (-7.7%), followed by Malta (-7.6%) and Romania (-4.4%), while increases in milk deliveries on a percentage basis were led by Hungary (+5.5%), followed by Estonia (+4.3%) and Lithuania (+3.7%).

Six of the top ten milk producing member states experienced YOY declines in milk deliveries during Dec ’21, as deliveries within the top ten milk producing member states declined by a weighted average of 2.0% throughout the month. The top ten EU-27+UK milk producing member states accounted for over 85% of the total EU-27+UK milk deliveries experienced throughout the month. Milk deliveries outside of the top ten milk producing member states declined by 0.1% on a YOY basis. Overall, 16 of the 28 countries experienced YOY declines in milk deliveries during Dec ’21.

Beef & Dairy Cow Slaughter

Nov ’21 EU-27+UK beef & dairy cow slaughter finished 1.8% below previous year levels when normalizing for slaughter days, reaching an eight year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in EU-27+UK beef & dairy cow slaughter rates was the fifth experienced throughout the past six months. YOY declines in beef & dairy cow slaughter were most significant throughout the United Kingdom, followed by France and Spain.

’20-’21 annual EU-27+UK bovine slaughter declined on a YOY basis for the second consecutive year, finishing down 3.4% and reaching a seven year low level. The USDA is projecting a 1.3% YOY decline in the EU-27+UK dairy cow herd throughout the 2022 calendar, following the general trend towards an overall smaller herd size and more productive animals.