Executive Summary

U.S. dairy commercial disappearance figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Feb ’22. Highlights from the updated report include:

• Feb ’22 U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a milk-fat basis finished below previous year levels for just the second time in the past 16 months but remained at the second highest seasonal level on record. Commercial disappearance for milk used in all products reached a record high seasonal level on a skim-solids basis throughout the month.
• U.S. cheese disappearance remained at record high seasonal level for the fourth consecutive month throughout Feb ’22 while whey protein concentrate disappearance reached a four year high seasonal level. Butter, dry whey and nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder disappearance all finished below previous year levels, however.
• U.S. fluid milk sales remained below previous year levels for the 16^th time in the past 18 months throughout Jan ’22, declining by 1.7% and reaching a record low seasonal level for the third consecutive month.

Additional Report Details

All Milk – Disappearance Lower YOY on a Milk-Fat Basis, Higher YOY on a Skim-Solids Basis

According to the USDA, U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a milk-fat basis finished 3.3% below previous year levels throughout Feb ’22. The YOY decline in commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a milk-fat basis was the first experienced throughout the past five months and just the second experienced throughout the 16 months. Domestic disappearance declined 4.5% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 19.8% increase in export demand. Disappearance on a milk-fat basis remained at the second highest seasonal level on record.

’20-’21 annual commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a milk-fat basis increased 2.5% YOY, reaching a record high annual level for the 12^th consecutive year. Domestic disappearance increased 1.8%, also reaching the highest annual figure on record. ’21-’22 YTD disappearance has increased by an additional 1.6% throughout the first five months of the production season, despite the most recent decline.

U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis increased by 0.4% on a YOY basis throughout Feb ’22, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis was the first experienced throughout the past three months. Domestic disappearance increased 1.7% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 3.8% decline in export demand.

’20-’21 annual commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis increased 1.8% YOY, reaching a record high annual level for the second consecutive year. Domestic disappearance finished 0.2% below previous year levels, however, reaching a three year low level. ’21-’22 YTD disappearance has increased by an additional 0.8% throughout the first five months of the production season.

Butter – Disappearance Down 13.0% but Remains at the Second Highest Seasonal Level on Record

U.S. butter commercial disappearance declined 13.0% on a YOY basis throughout Feb ’22, finishing below previous year levels for the first time in the past eight months but remaining at the second highest seasonal level on record. Domestic butter disappearance declined 15.8% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 46.3% YOY increase in export demand.

’20-’21 annual butter disappearance finished 4.1% higher YOY, reaching a record high annual level for the fourth consecutive year. Domestic disappearance increased 1.9%, also reaching the highest annual figure on record. ’21-’22 YTD disappearance has increased by an additional 2.6% throughout the first five months of the production season, despite the most recent decline.

U.S. butter production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures throughout Feb ’22, resulting in stocks rebounding seasonally to a four month high level. Butter stocks typically reach seasonal low levels throughout the month of November, prior to increasing seasonally throughout the month of December and the first half of the following calendar year.

Cheese – Disappearance Remains at a Record High Seasonal Level, up 6.8% YOY

U.S. cheese commercial disappearance increased 6.8% on a YOY basis throughout Feb ’22, remaining at a record high seasonal level for the fourth consecutive month. The YOY increase in cheese disappearance was the fifth experienced in a row and the largest experienced throughout the past ten months. Cheese commercial disappearance reached the second highest monthly level on record.

American cheese disappearance increased 7.2% on a YOY basis throughout the month, while other-than-American cheese disappearance finished 6.5% above previous year levels. The YOY increase in American cheese disappearance was the largest experienced throughout the past ten months. Domestic cheese disappearance increased 6.6% on a YOY basis throughout the month while export demand finished 9.2% above previous year levels.

’20-’21 annual cheese disappearance finished 2.4% higher YOY, reaching a record high annual level for the 26^th consecutive year. Domestic disappearance increased 2.3%, also reaching the highest annual figure on record. ’21-’22 YTD disappearance has increased by an additional 3.8% throughout the first five months of the production season.

U.S. cheese production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures throughout Feb ’22, resulting in stocks increasing seasonally to a 22 month high level.

Dry Whey – Disappearance Remains Lower YOY, Down 5.8%

U.S. dry whey commercial disappearance declined 5.8% on a YOY basis throughout Feb ’22, remaining below previous year levels for the eighth time in the past ten months. Dry whey disappearance reached the second lowest seasonal level experienced throughout the past eight years. Dry whey export demand declined 20.1% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 12.5% YOY increase in domestic demand.

’20-’21 annual dry whey disappearance finished 3.9% below previous year levels, reaching a six year low annual level. Domestic disappearance declined 23.5%, reaching a seven year low level. ’21-’22 YTD disappearance has declined by an additional 1.0% throughout the first five months of the production season.

U.S. dry whey production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures throughout Feb ’22, resulting in stocks increasing seasonally to a five month high level.

WPC – Disappearance Reaches a Four Year High Seasonal Level, up 31.1% YOY

U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) commercial disappearance increased 31.1% on a YOY basis throughout Feb ’22, reaching a four year high seasonal level and the second highest seasonal level on record. The YOY increase in WPC commercial disappearance was the fifth experienced in a row and the largest experienced throughout the past eight years on a percentage basis. Domestic WPC disappearance increased 152.8% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 1.3% YOY decline in export demand.

’20-’21 annual WPC disappearance finished 0.7% below previous year levels, reaching an eight year low level. Domestic disappearance finished 10.1% below previous year levels, reaching a nine year low annual level. ’21-’22 YTD disappearance has rebounded by 14.0% throughout the first five months of the production season and is on pace to reach a record high level.

U.S. WPC production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures throughout Feb ’22, resulting in stocks increasing from the previous month.

NFDM/SMP – Disappearance Reaches a Three Year Low Seasonal Level, Down 2.2% YOY

U.S. nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) commercial disappearance declined 2.2% on a YOY basis throughout Feb ’22, reaching a three year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in NFDM/SMP disappearance was the fourth experienced in a row. NFDM/SMP export demand declined 11.5% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 77.6% YOY increase in domestic demand.

’20-’21 annual NFDM/SMP disappearance finished 0.7% above previous year levels, reaching a record high annual level for the second consecutive year. Domestic disappearance declined 17.2%, however, reaching a 27 year low annual level. ’21-’22 YTD disappearance has declined by 3.0% throughout the first five months of the production season.

U.S. NFDM/SMP production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures throughout Feb ’22, resulting in stocks increasing seasonally to a seven month high level.

Feb ’22 increases in domestic commercial disappearance were led by cheese, while declines were most significant for butter. YOY increases in international commercial disappearance were also led by cheese, while declines were most significant for NFDM/SMP, followed by dry whey.

Fluid Milk – Total Milk Sales Remain at a Record Low Seasonal Level, Down 1.7% YOY

U.S. fluid milk sales remained below previous year figures for the 16^th time in the past 18 months throughout Jan ’22, declining by 1.7% and remaining at a record low seasonal level for the third consecutive month. Sales of fat-free milk remained particularly weak, declining by 8.4% on a YOY basis throughout the month.

’20-’21 annual fluid milk sales finished 3.4% below previous year levels, reaching a record low annual level, while ’21-’22 YTD fluid milk sales have declined by an additional 2.6% throughout the first third of the production season. Fluid milk sales declined 3.8% throughout the 2021 calendar year, finishing below previous year levels for the 12^th consecutive year.

Fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk declined on a YOY basis for the 17^th time in the past 18 months throughout Jan ’22, finishing down 0.9% and remaining at a record low seasonal level for the third consecutive month. ’20-’21 annual fat consumed within fluid milk finished 4.2% below the three year high level experienced throughout the previous production season, reaching the lowest annual level on record. ’21-’22 YTD fat consumed within fluid milk has declined by an additional 2.4% throughout the first third of the production season.