Executive Summary

U.S. milk production figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Mar ’22. Highlights from the updated report include:

• U.S. milk production volumes remained below previous year levels for the fifth consecutive month throughout Mar ’22, finishing down 0.5%. YOY declines in production on an absolute basis were led by New Mexico, followed by Michigan and Minnesota. Texas and South Dakota milk production volumes finished most significantly above previous year levels throughout the month.
• The Feb ’22 U.S. milk cow herd figure was revised 10,000 head above levels previously stated while the Mar ’22 figure increased by an additional 15,000 head. The U.S. milk cow herd currently stands at 9.395 million head, reaching a six month high level but remaining 112,000 head below the 26 year high level experienced throughout May ’21.
• U.S. milk per cow yields increased 0.4% on a YOY basis throughout Mar ’22, finishing above previous year levels for the fifth time in the past six months.

Additional Report Details

According to the USDA, Mar ’22 U.S. milk production volumes increased seasonally to a ten month high level but remained 0.5% below previous year figures. The month-over-month increase in production volumes of 1.4% was largely consistent with the ten year average February – March increase of 1.2%.

U.S. milk production volumes had finished higher on a YOY basis over 61 consecutive months from Jan ’14 – Jan ‘19, reaching the longest period of consecutive growth on record, prior to declining by a total of 0.3% from Mar ’19 – Jun ’19. Milk production volumes had rebounded throughout more recent months, finishing higher over 27 of the past 28 months through Oct ’21 before declining throughout the five most recent months of available data. The Mar ’22 YOY decline in milk production volumes was the smallest experienced throughout the five month period, however.

’20-’21 annual U.S. milk production volumes finished 2.5% above previous year levels, reaching a 15 year high annual growth rate. ’21-’22 YTD production volumes have declined by 0.8% on a YOY basis throughout the first half of the production season, however. The USDA is projecting U.S. milk production volumes will finish flat on a YOY basis throughout the 2022 calendar year.

YOY declines in production on a percentage basis were led by Florida (-10.7%), followed by New Mexico (-9.3%) and Washington (-4.0%), while production volumes finished most significantly higher YOY on a percentage basis within South Dakota (+20.0%), Georgia (+8.6%) and Texas (+6.7%). Overall, 16 of the 24 states milk production figures are provided for experienced YOY declines in production throughout the month.

California milk production volumes increased 0.5% on a YOY basis throughout Mar ’22, finishing above previous year levels for the first time in the past four months. California accounted for 19.0% of total U.S. milk production volumes throughout the month, leading all states.

Six of the top ten largest milk producing states experienced YOY declines in production throughout Mar ’22, as milk production within the top ten milk producing states declined by a weighted average of 0.4% throughout the month. The aforementioned states accounted for nearly three quarters of the total U.S. milk production experienced during Mar ’22. Production volumes outside of the top ten largest milk producing states declined by 0.9% on a YOY basis throughout the month.

Mar ’22 YOY declines in milk production on an absolute basis were led by New Mexico, followed by Michigan and Minnesota, while YOY increases in production on an absolute basis were most significant throughout Texas, followed by South Dakota.

The Feb ’22 U.S. milk cow herd figure was revised 10,000 head above levels previous stated while the Mar ’22 figure increased by an additional 15,000 head. The U.S. milk cow herd currently stands at 9.395 million head, reaching a six month high level but remaining 112,000 head below from the 26 year high level experienced throughout May ’21 and finishing 87,000 head below the previous year.

Month-over-month increases in milk cow herds were led by Texas, followed by New Mexico, Ohio, South Dakota, Washington, Iowa and Illinois. Month-over-month declines in milk cow herds were experienced throughout Pennsylvania, Michigan and Florida.

Mar ’22 YOY declines in milk cow herds continued to be led by New Mexico, followed by Michigan and Washington, while the South Dakota, Texas and Georgia milk cow herds finished most significantly higher on a YOY basis throughout the month.

U.S. milk per cow yields increased 0.4% on a YOY basis throughout Mar ’22, finishing above previous year levels for the fifth time in the past six months. Yields experienced throughout the Western states of California, Idaho, Washington and Oregon finished 0.4% above previous year levels throughout Mar ’22 while yields experienced throughout the Midwestern states of Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and Illinois finished unchanged from the previous year.