Global Dairy Trade Results Update – GDT Price Index…
Dairy product prices declined within the Global Dairy Trade (GDT) auction held May 19th for the fifth event in a row, as the GDT Price Index fell 2.2%. The GDT Price Index remains below the Dec ’14 relative lows and at levels not experienced since Aug ’09. Currently, the GDT Price Index is 37.8% below last year and 35.2% below the three year average price for the second auction of May. The GDT Price Index represents a weighted-average of the percentage changes in prices between trading events for all products offered.
Price declines were led by cheddar cheese (-7.1%), followed by anhydrous milkfat (-4.8%), skim milk powder (-3.6%), butter (-3.2%), whole milk powder (-0.5%) and rennet casein (-0.4%). Cheddar cheese prices declined sharply after increasing by a total of 12.1% over the past two auctions. Whole milk powder, which accounted for over half of the GDT volume over the past two years, declined for the sixth consecutive auction, however the 0.5% decline was the smallest decline over the period. Butter milk powder (+3.2%) and lactose (+0.9%) experienced price gains while sweet whey powder was not sold at the May 19th event. U.S. SMP and butter did not trade at the event for the 19th and 20th straight times, respectively.
The table below provides a summary of the most recent GDT weighted average winning prices for key products. Butter has been adjusted to 80% butterfat and SMP has been adjusted to 35% protein content (equivalent to U.S. NFDM) in the $/lb columns below. CME spot and average futures prices are based on May 18th figures. CME average futures prices are weighted average prices based on the most recently reported percentage of the total quantity sold in each GDT contract period.
Total quantities sold for all products at the May 19th event of 26,535 MT were 3.0% lower than the previous auction. Quantities sold for all products increased over the past three events prior to the most recent decline and remain 31.0% higher than the 22 month low experienced in Mar ’15.
Despite recent increases, quantities sold for all products remain lower than previous years on a seasonal basis. Total quantities sold for all products within the May auctions were 25.0% below last year’s average volumes sold for the month of May and 10.0% below the previous three year average May quantities sold.
Within the GDT auction, butter offered by U.S. sellers, representing product sold by Dairy America, did not trade for the 20th straight auction after trading at each auction since being offered in Jul ’13. Butter offered by U.S. sellers for short-term contract periods has recently traded at a significant premium to butter offered by Oceania sellers for short-term contract periods, representing product sold by Fonterra. Jul ’14 U.S. / Oceania butter price premiums within the GDT auction were the highest ever experienced. Fonterra butter prices for short-term contract periods increasing by a total of 55.6% from Nov ’14 to Mar ’15, but declined to levels not experienced since Dec ’14 within the most recent auction.
GDT winning prices in butter have been historically higher than U.S. butter prices until the run-up in domestic butter prices over much of 2014. Over the past 27 bi-weekly events leading up to April ’14, GDT butter prices traded at a $0.19 average premium to U.S. butter prices. From Apr ’14 – Dec ’14, however, U.S. butter prices traded at a $0.92 average premium to GDT butter prices. The U.S. butter price premium has been reduced throughout 2015, but has rebounded over the past four auctions, with CME futures prices trading at an average 51.6% premium to GDT prices. U.S. butter prices traded at an 83.3% premium to GDT butter prices from Jun ’14 – Dec ’14. Butter was not sold at the GDT auction for Contract 1 (Jun ’15).
Cheddar cheese available for purchase at GDT auctions is currently offered only by Fonterra, so GDT winning prices in cheddar cheese are a viable metric for Oceania prices. GDT prices traded at a premium to U.S. prices for most of 2013, with U.S. prices outpacing GDT prices for the majority of the bimonthly events since Jan ’14. CME futures prices are also trading above GDT prices in future months, with CME futures prices trading at a 39.3% premium to GDT prices. Cheddar cheese was not sold at the GDT auction for Contact 1 (Jun ’15), Contract 3 (Aug ’15), Contract 4 (Sep ’15), Contract 5 (Oct ’15) and Contract 6 (Nov ’15).
GDT SMP prices converged over the second half of 2014, with Oceania and Europe prices moving downward in tandem. Oceania and Europe GDT SMP prices on short-term contracts traded within 5% of each other in 13 of the 16 events from Apr ’14 – Nov ’14. Oceania SMP prices regained their premium, increasing to a 22 month high over Europe SMP prices in late March, but converged downward towards Europe SMP prices yet again throughout recent auctions. U.S. SMP, representing product sold by Dairy America and Land O’Lakes, did not trade for the 19th straight auction after trading at 69 consecutive auctions from Oct ’11 to Aug ’14. India SMP, representing product sold by Amul, did not trade for the third time in the past four auctions.
Within the GDT auction, SMP offered by U.S. sellers on short-term contracts has recently traded at a premium to SMP offered by Oceania sellers on short-term contracts, representing product sold by Fonterra. The most recent U.S. / Oceania SMP price premiums experienced within the GDT auction have been the highest since Sep ’12. Oceania SMP prices for short-term contract periods increased 37.7% from Dec ’14 to Mar ’15, but have declined over recent auctions and reached new lows at the May 19th auction.
U.S. SMP prices are expected to trade at a premium to GDT SMP prices over the next several months, with CME NFDM futures prices trading at a 13.5% premium to GDT SMP future month winning prices from Jun ’15 – Nov ’15.
Price declines were led by cheddar cheese (-7.1%), followed by anhydrous milkfat (-4.8%), skim milk powder (-3.6%), butter (-3.2%), whole milk powder (-0.5%) and rennet casein (-0.4%). Cheddar cheese prices declined sharply after increasing by a total of 12.1% over the past two auctions. Whole milk powder, which accounted for over half of the GDT volume over the past two years, declined for the sixth consecutive auction, however the 0.5% decline was the smallest decline over the period. Butter milk powder (+3.2%) and lactose (+0.9%) experienced price gains while sweet whey powder was not sold at the May 19th event. U.S. SMP and butter did not trade at the event for the 19th and 20th straight times, respectively.
The table below provides a summary of the most recent GDT weighted average winning prices for key products. Butter has been adjusted to 80% butterfat and SMP has been adjusted to 35% protein content (equivalent to U.S. NFDM) in the $/lb columns below. CME spot and average futures prices are based on May 18th figures. CME average futures prices are weighted average prices based on the most recently reported percentage of the total quantity sold in each GDT contract period.
Total quantities sold for all products at the May 19th event of 26,535 MT were 3.0% lower than the previous auction. Quantities sold for all products increased over the past three events prior to the most recent decline and remain 31.0% higher than the 22 month low experienced in Mar ’15.
Despite recent increases, quantities sold for all products remain lower than previous years on a seasonal basis. Total quantities sold for all products within the May auctions were 25.0% below last year’s average volumes sold for the month of May and 10.0% below the previous three year average May quantities sold.
Within the GDT auction, butter offered by U.S. sellers, representing product sold by Dairy America, did not trade for the 20th straight auction after trading at each auction since being offered in Jul ’13. Butter offered by U.S. sellers for short-term contract periods has recently traded at a significant premium to butter offered by Oceania sellers for short-term contract periods, representing product sold by Fonterra. Jul ’14 U.S. / Oceania butter price premiums within the GDT auction were the highest ever experienced. Fonterra butter prices for short-term contract periods increasing by a total of 55.6% from Nov ’14 to Mar ’15, but declined to levels not experienced since Dec ’14 within the most recent auction.
GDT winning prices in butter have been historically higher than U.S. butter prices until the run-up in domestic butter prices over much of 2014. Over the past 27 bi-weekly events leading up to April ’14, GDT butter prices traded at a $0.19 average premium to U.S. butter prices. From Apr ’14 – Dec ’14, however, U.S. butter prices traded at a $0.92 average premium to GDT butter prices. The U.S. butter price premium has been reduced throughout 2015, but has rebounded over the past four auctions, with CME futures prices trading at an average 51.6% premium to GDT prices. U.S. butter prices traded at an 83.3% premium to GDT butter prices from Jun ’14 – Dec ’14. Butter was not sold at the GDT auction for Contract 1 (Jun ’15).
Cheddar cheese available for purchase at GDT auctions is currently offered only by Fonterra, so GDT winning prices in cheddar cheese are a viable metric for Oceania prices. GDT prices traded at a premium to U.S. prices for most of 2013, with U.S. prices outpacing GDT prices for the majority of the bimonthly events since Jan ’14. CME futures prices are also trading above GDT prices in future months, with CME futures prices trading at a 39.3% premium to GDT prices. Cheddar cheese was not sold at the GDT auction for Contact 1 (Jun ’15), Contract 3 (Aug ’15), Contract 4 (Sep ’15), Contract 5 (Oct ’15) and Contract 6 (Nov ’15).
GDT SMP prices converged over the second half of 2014, with Oceania and Europe prices moving downward in tandem. Oceania and Europe GDT SMP prices on short-term contracts traded within 5% of each other in 13 of the 16 events from Apr ’14 – Nov ’14. Oceania SMP prices regained their premium, increasing to a 22 month high over Europe SMP prices in late March, but converged downward towards Europe SMP prices yet again throughout recent auctions. U.S. SMP, representing product sold by Dairy America and Land O’Lakes, did not trade for the 19th straight auction after trading at 69 consecutive auctions from Oct ’11 to Aug ’14. India SMP, representing product sold by Amul, did not trade for the third time in the past four auctions.
Within the GDT auction, SMP offered by U.S. sellers on short-term contracts has recently traded at a premium to SMP offered by Oceania sellers on short-term contracts, representing product sold by Fonterra. The most recent U.S. / Oceania SMP price premiums experienced within the GDT auction have been the highest since Sep ’12. Oceania SMP prices for short-term contract periods increased 37.7% from Dec ’14 to Mar ’15, but have declined over recent auctions and reached new lows at the May 19th auction.
U.S. SMP prices are expected to trade at a premium to GDT SMP prices over the next several months, with CME NFDM futures prices trading at a 13.5% premium to GDT SMP future month winning prices from Jun ’15 – Nov ’15.