U.S. Livestock Cold Storage Update – Sep ’15
Pork – Stocks Increase to New August Record High
According to USDA, Aug ’15 U.S. frozen pork stocks of 656.3 million pounds increased 3.6% MOM and 20.7% YOY, setting a new record high for the month of August. Pork stocks have increased YOY for seven month in a row after 11 consecutive months of YOY declines were experienced from Mar ’14 – Jan ’15. The MOM increase in pork stocks of 23.0 million pounds, or 3.6%, was also strong when compared to the three year average July – August seasonal increase of 17.3 million pounds, or 3.2%. Aug ’15 pork stocks finished 17.3% higher than the three year average August pork stocks.
Beef – Stocks Remain Significantly Higher on YOY Basis, Finish up 35.7%
Aug ’15 U.S. frozen beef stocks of 470.4 million pounds increased 2.4% MOM and 35.7% YOY to a new eight year high for the month of August. The monthly YOY increase in beef stocks was the ninth in a row after nine consecutive months of YOY declines were experienced from Mar ’14 – Nov ’14. The MOM increase in beef stocks of 11.0 million pounds, or 2.4%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the three year average July – August decline in beef stocks of 27.3 million pounds, or 6.3%. Aug ’15 beef stocks finished 16.7% higher than the three year average August beef stocks.
Chicken – Stocks Remain Significantly Higher on YOY Basis, Finish up 25.0%
Aug ’15 U.S. frozen chicken stocks of 782.1 million pounds increased 2.1% MOM and 25.0% YOY to a new 13 year high for the month of August. Chicken stocks increased YOY for the ninth month in a row after nine consecutive months of YOY declines were experienced from Mar ’14 – Nov ’14. The MOM increase in chicken stocks of 15.9 million pounds, or 2.1%, was significantly greater than the three year average July – August seasonal increase of 3.8 million pounds, or 0.6%. Stocks have built as the Russian import ban continues to negatively affect U.S. broiler exports. U.S. broiler export volumes have declined by 8.8% YOY since the ban was announced. Aug ’15 chicken stocks finished 17.6% higher than the three year average August chicken stocks.
Overall, combined Aug ’15 U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks remained below the record high experienced in Apr ’15, but finished above the 98th percentile of historical monthly figures while exceeding 97% of total maximum historical storage capacity. Individually, Aug ’15 U.S. pork stocks remained above 90% of historical maximum storage levels, while U.S. beef and chicken stocks were also relatively high, finishing at 90% and 85% of historical maximum storage levels, respectively.
On a seasonal basis, combined Aug ’15 pork, beef and chicken stocks set a new August record high. Individually, Aug ’15 U.S. pork stocks set a new record high for the month of August, beef stocks approached the 2006 July high and chicken stocks finished at approximately 92% of historical maximum storage levels for the month of August.
According to USDA, Aug ’15 U.S. frozen pork stocks of 656.3 million pounds increased 3.6% MOM and 20.7% YOY, setting a new record high for the month of August. Pork stocks have increased YOY for seven month in a row after 11 consecutive months of YOY declines were experienced from Mar ’14 – Jan ’15. The MOM increase in pork stocks of 23.0 million pounds, or 3.6%, was also strong when compared to the three year average July – August seasonal increase of 17.3 million pounds, or 3.2%. Aug ’15 pork stocks finished 17.3% higher than the three year average August pork stocks.
Beef – Stocks Remain Significantly Higher on YOY Basis, Finish up 35.7%
Aug ’15 U.S. frozen beef stocks of 470.4 million pounds increased 2.4% MOM and 35.7% YOY to a new eight year high for the month of August. The monthly YOY increase in beef stocks was the ninth in a row after nine consecutive months of YOY declines were experienced from Mar ’14 – Nov ’14. The MOM increase in beef stocks of 11.0 million pounds, or 2.4%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the three year average July – August decline in beef stocks of 27.3 million pounds, or 6.3%. Aug ’15 beef stocks finished 16.7% higher than the three year average August beef stocks.
Chicken – Stocks Remain Significantly Higher on YOY Basis, Finish up 25.0%
Aug ’15 U.S. frozen chicken stocks of 782.1 million pounds increased 2.1% MOM and 25.0% YOY to a new 13 year high for the month of August. Chicken stocks increased YOY for the ninth month in a row after nine consecutive months of YOY declines were experienced from Mar ’14 – Nov ’14. The MOM increase in chicken stocks of 15.9 million pounds, or 2.1%, was significantly greater than the three year average July – August seasonal increase of 3.8 million pounds, or 0.6%. Stocks have built as the Russian import ban continues to negatively affect U.S. broiler exports. U.S. broiler export volumes have declined by 8.8% YOY since the ban was announced. Aug ’15 chicken stocks finished 17.6% higher than the three year average August chicken stocks.
Overall, combined Aug ’15 U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks remained below the record high experienced in Apr ’15, but finished above the 98th percentile of historical monthly figures while exceeding 97% of total maximum historical storage capacity. Individually, Aug ’15 U.S. pork stocks remained above 90% of historical maximum storage levels, while U.S. beef and chicken stocks were also relatively high, finishing at 90% and 85% of historical maximum storage levels, respectively.
On a seasonal basis, combined Aug ’15 pork, beef and chicken stocks set a new August record high. Individually, Aug ’15 U.S. pork stocks set a new record high for the month of August, beef stocks approached the 2006 July high and chicken stocks finished at approximately 92% of historical maximum storage levels for the month of August.