Atten Babler Ethanol FX Indices – Nov ’15
The Atten Babler Commodities Ethanol Foreign Exchange (FX) Indices declined slightly off of recent highs during Oct ’15. Despite the declines, the USD/Ethanol Producer FX Index remained at the second highest figure on record while the USD/Domestic Ethanol Importer FX Index remained at the second highest figure experienced in the past 12 years.
Global Ethanol Producers:
Major ethanol producers are led by the U.S., followed by Brazil, the EU-28, China, India and Canada.
USD/Ethanol Producer FX Index:
The USD/Ethanol Producer FX Index declined 0.2 points in Oct ’15 from the record high experienced in Sep ’15 to a value of 131.5. The USD/Ethanol Producer FX remains at the second highest figure on record and has increased 25.2 points since the beginning of 2014 and 12.8 points throughout the past six months. A strengthening USD/Ethanol Producer FX Index reduces the competitiveness of U.S. ethanol relative to other major producing regions (represented in green in the Global Ethanol Producers chart), ultimately resulting in less foreign demand, all other factors being equal. USD appreciation against the Brazilian real has accounted for the majority of the gains since the beginning of 2014.
Appreciation against the USD within the USD/Ethanol Producer FX Index during Oct ’15 was led by gains by the Brazilian real, followed by gains by the Indian rupee, Canadian dollar and Chinese yuan renminbi.
U.S. Ethanol Export Destinations:
Major destinations for U.S. dairy exports are led by Canada, followed by the Philippines, Brazil, the United Arab Emirates, Peru and Mexico.
USD/Domestic Ethanol Importer FX Index:
The USD/Domestic Ethanol Importer FX Index declined 0.9 points in Oct ’15 to a value of 112.9. The USD/Domestic Ethanol Importer FX remains at the second highest figure experienced in the past 12 years and has increased 20.9 points since the beginning of 2014 and 7.8 points throughout the past six months. A strengthening USD/Domestic Ethanol Importer FX Index results in less purchasing power for the traditional buyers of U.S. ethanol (represented in red in the U.S. Ethanol Export Destinations chart), ultimately resulting in less foreign demand, all other factors being equal. USD appreciation against the Canadian dollar and the Brazilian real has accounted for the majority of the gains since the beginning of 2014.
Appreciation against the USD within the USD/Domestic Ethanol Importer FX Index during Oct ’15 was led by gains by the Canadian dollar, followed by gains by the Mexican peso, Indian rupee and Philippine peso.