U.S. Livestock & Meat Trade Update – Dec ’15
Pork – YOY Net Trade Remains Higher on Strong Exports, Declining Imports
According to USDA, Oct ’15 U.S. pork export volumes declined 1.6% MOM on a daily average basis but remained higher on a YOY basis, finishing 7.0% above the previous year. Combined U.S. pork exports destined to Hong Kong, Taiwan and China increased 31.4% YOY while exports destined to Mexico increased 10.5% YOY. Gains more than offset YOY declines in pork exported to South Korea (-5.9%), Japan (-4.2%) and Canada (-0.5%). U.S. pork exports to the aforementioned countries accounted for over 80% of all pork export volumes in Oct ’15.
Oct ’15 U.S. pork imports increased 5.3% MOM a daily average basis but finished 8.1% below the previous year. U.S. pork imports had increased YOY throughout 17 of the past 19 months prior to the most recent decline. Oct ’15 U.S. net pork trade declined 3.6% MOM on a daily average basis but remained 12.9% above the previous year. ’14-’15 annual net pork trade finished down 10.0% to a new five year low, despite increasing YOY over the final two months of the production season.
U.S. pork export volumes have strengthened considerably over the past 25 years, increasing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.2%, while U.S. pork imports have remained fairly flat, increasing at a CAGR of 0.3% over the same time period. ’13-’14 annual pork imports experienced much stronger growth, finishing 10.5% higher than the previous year, the largest YOY percentage gain in 11 years. Despite the increase in pork imports, ’13-’14 annual pork exports volumes remained over five times as large as import volumes. Pork export volumes remained over four times as large as import volumes throughout the ’14-’15 production season despite declining to a five year low on an absolute basis.
Beef & Veal – Net Trade Remains Significantly Lower on YOY Basis
Oct ’15 U.S. beef & veal export volumes increased 14.2% MOM on a daily average basis but remained significantly lower on a YOY basis, finishing 14.3% below the previous year. Beef & veal export volumes have declined YOY for 16 consecutive months through October. Of the major export destinations, YOY declines in export volumes were led by Japan (-40.9%), followed by combined volumes to Hong Kong, Taiwan and China (-13.7%), South Korea (-10.9%) and Canada (-9.9%). Export volumes to Mexico increased YOY for the first time in 13 months, finishing 13.0% above the previous year. U.S. beef & veal exports to the aforementioned countries accounted for over 85% of all beef & veal export volumes in Oct ’15.
Oct ’15 U.S. beef & veal imports declined 13.1% YOY and 20.3% MOM on a daily average basis to a 20 month low. Beef & veal import volumes had increased YOY for 19 consecutive months prior to the Oct ’15 decline, exceeding export volumes by 38.6% over the period. Despite the YOY decline, net beef & veal trade remained negative for the 20th consecutive month during Oct ’15.
’13-’14 annual U.S. beef & veal imports finished higher than annual U.S. beef & veal exports for the first time in four years. This trend continued into the ’14-’15 production season as annual imports increased to a ten year high and beef & veal net trade declined to a new eight year low.
Chicken –Net Trade Declines to Nine Year Low for the Month of October
Oct ’15 U.S. broiler export volumes increased 5.0% MOM off of the four and a half year low experienced in Sep ’15 but remain significant lower on a YOY basis, finishing 20.2% below the previous year. Monthly export volumes have declined YOY throughout 12 of the past 13 months as exports have been negatively affected by the Russian import ban, however declines have also been experienced in other major U.S. broiler import markets. Combined broiler export volumes to Hong Kong, Taiwan and China finished down 2.3% YOY, while broiler export volumes to Mexico declined YOY for the sixth consecutive month, finishing down 5.8%. U.S. broiler export volumes destined to Mexico had increased YOY for 17 consecutive months from Dec ’13 – Apr ’15. Despite the recent declines, broiler export volumes to Mexico have accounted for nearly a quarter of the total broiler export volumes during Oct ’15.
Oct ’15 U.S. broiler imports continued to increase on a YOY basis, finishing up 65.9%, and 27.2% MOM on a daily average basis. Broiler imports remain at insignificant levels relative to export volumes, with Oct ’15 imports amounting to only 2.4% of export volumes. Declining broiler exports, coupled with increasing imports, resulted in Oct ’15 net broiler trade declining YOY for the 12th time in the past 13 months, finishing down 21.2% and also reaching a nine year low for the month of October. Net broiler trade finished the ’14-’15 production season down 10.9% to a new five year low.
U.S. broiler export volumes have strengthened considerably over the past 25 years, increasing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.3%. U.S. broiler import volumes have increased at a CAGR of 21.6% over the same time period but remain significantly lower. ’13-’14 annual broiler exports volumes were over 60 times as large as import volumes. Broiler export volumes remained 54 times as large as import volumes throughout the ’14-’15 production season despite declining to a five year low on an absolute basis.
Combined net trade of U.S. pork, beef and broilers has declined YOY for 19 consecutive months through Oct ’15, although the Oct ’15 YOY decline of 94.7 million pounds, or 11.2%, was a six month high. Combined net trade declined by 21.4% YOY throughout the ’14-’15 production season.
U.S. pork export volumes have strengthened considerably over the past 25 years, increasing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.2%, while U.S. pork imports have remained fairly flat, increasing at a CAGR of 0.3% over the same time period. ’13-’14 annual pork imports experienced much stronger growth, finishing 10.5% higher than the previous year, the largest YOY percentage gain in 11 years. Despite the increase in pork imports, ’13-’14 annual pork exports volumes remained over five times as large as import volumes. Pork export volumes remained over four times as large as import volumes throughout the ’14-’15 production season despite declining to a five year low on an absolute basis.
Beef & Veal – Net Trade Remains Significantly Lower on YOY Basis
Oct ’15 U.S. beef & veal export volumes increased 14.2% MOM on a daily average basis but remained significantly lower on a YOY basis, finishing 14.3% below the previous year. Beef & veal export volumes have declined YOY for 16 consecutive months through October. Of the major export destinations, YOY declines in export volumes were led by Japan (-40.9%), followed by combined volumes to Hong Kong, Taiwan and China (-13.7%), South Korea (-10.9%) and Canada (-9.9%). Export volumes to Mexico increased YOY for the first time in 13 months, finishing 13.0% above the previous year. U.S. beef & veal exports to the aforementioned countries accounted for over 85% of all beef & veal export volumes in Oct ’15.
Oct ’15 U.S. beef & veal imports declined 13.1% YOY and 20.3% MOM on a daily average basis to a 20 month low. Beef & veal import volumes had increased YOY for 19 consecutive months prior to the Oct ’15 decline, exceeding export volumes by 38.6% over the period. Despite the YOY decline, net beef & veal trade remained negative for the 20th consecutive month during Oct ’15.
’13-’14 annual U.S. beef & veal imports finished higher than annual U.S. beef & veal exports for the first time in four years. This trend continued into the ’14-’15 production season as annual imports increased to a ten year high and beef & veal net trade declined to a new eight year low.
Chicken –Net Trade Declines to Nine Year Low for the Month of October
Oct ’15 U.S. broiler export volumes increased 5.0% MOM off of the four and a half year low experienced in Sep ’15 but remain significant lower on a YOY basis, finishing 20.2% below the previous year. Monthly export volumes have declined YOY throughout 12 of the past 13 months as exports have been negatively affected by the Russian import ban, however declines have also been experienced in other major U.S. broiler import markets. Combined broiler export volumes to Hong Kong, Taiwan and China finished down 2.3% YOY, while broiler export volumes to Mexico declined YOY for the sixth consecutive month, finishing down 5.8%. U.S. broiler export volumes destined to Mexico had increased YOY for 17 consecutive months from Dec ’13 – Apr ’15. Despite the recent declines, broiler export volumes to Mexico have accounted for nearly a quarter of the total broiler export volumes during Oct ’15.
Oct ’15 U.S. broiler imports continued to increase on a YOY basis, finishing up 65.9%, and 27.2% MOM on a daily average basis. Broiler imports remain at insignificant levels relative to export volumes, with Oct ’15 imports amounting to only 2.4% of export volumes. Declining broiler exports, coupled with increasing imports, resulted in Oct ’15 net broiler trade declining YOY for the 12th time in the past 13 months, finishing down 21.2% and also reaching a nine year low for the month of October. Net broiler trade finished the ’14-’15 production season down 10.9% to a new five year low.
U.S. broiler export volumes have strengthened considerably over the past 25 years, increasing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.3%. U.S. broiler import volumes have increased at a CAGR of 21.6% over the same time period but remain significantly lower. ’13-’14 annual broiler exports volumes were over 60 times as large as import volumes. Broiler export volumes remained 54 times as large as import volumes throughout the ’14-’15 production season despite declining to a five year low on an absolute basis.
Combined net trade of U.S. pork, beef and broilers has declined YOY for 19 consecutive months through Oct ’15, although the Oct ’15 YOY decline of 94.7 million pounds, or 11.2%, was a six month high. Combined net trade declined by 21.4% YOY throughout the ’14-’15 production season.