U.S. Dairy Cow Slaughter Update – Jun ’16
According to USDA, May ’16 U.S. dairy cow slaughter of 214,000 head declined 3.4% MOM and 1.9% YOY when normalized for slaughter days. U.S. dairy cow slaughter rates have declined seasonally by an average of 5.2% MOM when normalized for slaughter days from April – May over the past ten years.
’15-’16 YTD dairy cow slaughter is down 0.2% YOY throughout the first two thirds of the production season as rates have fallen 3.4% below the previous year levels over the past three months. Declining slaughter rates contributed to the U.S. milk cow herd remaining at a seven year high during May ’16. The total U.S. milk cow herd currently stands at 9.327 million head, which is 3,000 head more than May of last year.
The most significant MOM decline in dairy cow slaughter was exhibited in Standard Federal Region 6 (Arkansas, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas) while slaughter rates increased most significantly on a MOM basis in Standard Federal Region 9 (Arizona, California, Hawaii and Nevada) while. Figures for Standard Federal Region 5 (Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio and Wisconsin) were withheld to avoid disclosing data for individual operators.
The largest YOY declines in dairy cow slaughter were also exhibited in Standard Federal Region 6 (Arkansas, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas) while slaughter increased most significantly on a YOY basis within Standard Federal Region 9 (Arizona, California, Hawaii and Nevada).
Dairy cow slaughter within Standard Federal Region 6 (Arkansas, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas) continued to decline from the monthly record high experienced in Jan ’16, finishing down 19.6% MOM and 26.5% YOY. Monthly slaughter rates had reached record high levels as effects from Winter Storm Goliath were experienced, however slaughter levels have declined by a total of 51.1% throughout the past four months.
Dairy cow slaughter within Standard Federal Region 9 (Arizona, California, Hawaii and Nevada) increased 7.9% MOM and 5.9% YOY when normalized for slaughter days. The YOY increase was the first experienced in the past three months and the largest experienced in the past eight months on a percentage basis. ’15-’16 YTD dairy cow slaughter remains down 0.8% YOY throughout the first two thirds of the production season within Standard Federal Region 9, despite the most YOY increase.