U.S. Dairy Commercial Disappearance Update – Jul ’16
Executive Summary
U.S. dairy commercial disappearance figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through May ’16. Highlights from the updated report include:
• May ’16 U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products increased 1.8% YOY on a milk-fat basis and 2.5% YOY on a skim-solids basis, each finishing at new record high values for the month of May.
• May ’16 butter, cheese, dry whey and NFDM disappearance figures each finished higher on a YOY basis throughout the month. Cheese disappearance declined from the previous month but remained at a record high figure for the month of May.
• U.S. fluid milk sales finished flat on a YOY basis during Apr ’16 as sales of fat-free milk remained weak but whole milk sales continued to strengthen.
Additional Report Details
All Milk – Disappearance Finishes at Record May Highs on both a Milk-Fat and Skim-Solids Basis
According to USDA, May ’16 U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products increased 1.8% YOY on a milk-fat basis and 2.5% YOY on a skim-solids basis, each finishing at new record high values for the month of May. Domestic demand outpaced international demand on both a milk-fat and skim-solids basis, increasing by 2.2% YOY and 5.4% YOY, respectively, throughout the month.
Butter – Disappearance Remains Higher on a YOY Basis, Finishes up 3.4%
May ’16 U.S. butter commercial disappearance increased 10.1% MOM on a daily average basis while also remaining higher on a YOY basis for the fifth consecutive month, finishing 3.4% above the previous year consumption level. May ’16 domestic butter demand finished up 4.0% YOY, more than offsetting a 38.3% YOY decline in international demand. ’14-’15 annual U.S. butter commercial disappearance declined 4.6% YOY to a three year low as a 74.8% decline in export volumes more than offset a 2.3% increase in domestic demand. ’15-’16 YTD U.S. butter disappearance has rebounded by 3.3% YOY throughout the first two thirds of the production season.
Cheese – Disappearance Finishes Slightly Higher on a YOY Basis, Reaches May Record High
May ’16 U.S. cheese commercial disappearance declined 0.4% MOM on a daily average basis, reaching a 12 month low, but remained slightly higher on a YOY basis, finishing at a record high for the month of May. YOY increases in cheese disappearance have been exhibited throughout 11 consecutive months through May ’16. Other-than-American cheese disappearance increased by 0.9% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 1.3% YOY decline in American cheese disappearance. Domestic cheese demand increased 1.3% YOY however export demand remained weak, declining 18.6% YOY. Cheese export volumes have declined YOY for 20 consecutive months while domestic demand has increased YOY for 21 consecutive months through May. ’14-’15 annual U.S. cheese commercial disappearance finished up 2.1% YOY to a new record annual high as a 3.4% increase in domestic demand more than offset a 14.1% decline in export demand. ’15-’16 YTD U.S. cheese disappearance is up an additional 2.5% YOY throughout the first two thirds of the production season.
Dry Whey – Disappearance Remains Higher on a YOY Basis, Finishes up 0.9%
May ’16 U.S. dry whey commercial disappearance increased 4.3% MOM on a daily average basis while also remaining higher on a YOY basis for the third time in the past four months, finishing up 0.9%. Domestic dry whey demand increased 28.0% YOY, more than offsetting a 19.7% decline in export volumes. Dry whey export volumes have declined on a YOY basis for 24 consecutive months through May ’16. ’14-’15 annual U.S. dry whey commercial disappearance increased 0.4% YOY as a 24.6% increase in domestic demand more than offset an 18.0% decline in export demand. ’15-’16 YTD U.S. dry whey disappearance is up an additional 8.1% YOY throughout the first two thirds of the production season.
NFDM/SMP – Disappearance Increases on a YOY Basis for the First Time in Five Months
May ’16 U.S. NFDM/SMP commercial disappearance increased 16.3% MOM on a daily average basis while also increasing on a YOY basis for the first time in five months, finishing up 14.9%. U.S. NFDM/SMP domestic disappearance increased on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month during May ’16, finishing up 97.6%, while export volumes finished up 0.9% YOY. ’14-’15 annual U.S. NFDM/SMP commercial disappearance finished up 2.9% YOY as a 14.8% increase in domestic demand more than offset a 6.1% decline in export demand. ’15-’16 YTD U.S. NFDM/SMP disappearance remains down 1.1% YOY throughout the first two thirds of the production season, however, despite the most recent increase.
Fluid Milk Sales – Fat-Free Sales Continue to Weigh Down Overall Figures, Total Milk Sales Flat YOY
Apr ’16 U.S. fluid milk sales of 4.09 billion pounds finished up 0.5% MOM on a daily average basis and flat with the previous year figures. Fluid milk sales had declined over 33 of the past 35 months through March. Sales of whole milk remained strong, finishing up 5.4% YOY, while fat-free milk sales declined 10.5% YOY. ’14-’15 annual U.S. total fluid milk sales finished down 1.8% YOY to the lowest annual figure on record. Annual whole milk sales finished up 2.2% however annual fat-free milk sales declined 10.8% throughout the year. ’15-’16 YTD U.S. fluid milk sales are down at additional 1.0% YOY throughout the first seven months of the production season.
Overall, May ’16 YOY increases in domestic commercial disappearance were widespread as were YOY declines in international disappearance.
Butter – Disappearance Remains Higher on a YOY Basis, Finishes up 3.4%
May ’16 U.S. butter commercial disappearance increased 10.1% MOM on a daily average basis while also remaining higher on a YOY basis for the fifth consecutive month, finishing 3.4% above the previous year consumption level. May ’16 domestic butter demand finished up 4.0% YOY, more than offsetting a 38.3% YOY decline in international demand. ’14-’15 annual U.S. butter commercial disappearance declined 4.6% YOY to a three year low as a 74.8% decline in export volumes more than offset a 2.3% increase in domestic demand. ’15-’16 YTD U.S. butter disappearance has rebounded by 3.3% YOY throughout the first two thirds of the production season.
Cheese – Disappearance Finishes Slightly Higher on a YOY Basis, Reaches May Record High
May ’16 U.S. cheese commercial disappearance declined 0.4% MOM on a daily average basis, reaching a 12 month low, but remained slightly higher on a YOY basis, finishing at a record high for the month of May. YOY increases in cheese disappearance have been exhibited throughout 11 consecutive months through May ’16. Other-than-American cheese disappearance increased by 0.9% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 1.3% YOY decline in American cheese disappearance. Domestic cheese demand increased 1.3% YOY however export demand remained weak, declining 18.6% YOY. Cheese export volumes have declined YOY for 20 consecutive months while domestic demand has increased YOY for 21 consecutive months through May. ’14-’15 annual U.S. cheese commercial disappearance finished up 2.1% YOY to a new record annual high as a 3.4% increase in domestic demand more than offset a 14.1% decline in export demand. ’15-’16 YTD U.S. cheese disappearance is up an additional 2.5% YOY throughout the first two thirds of the production season.
Dry Whey – Disappearance Remains Higher on a YOY Basis, Finishes up 0.9%
May ’16 U.S. dry whey commercial disappearance increased 4.3% MOM on a daily average basis while also remaining higher on a YOY basis for the third time in the past four months, finishing up 0.9%. Domestic dry whey demand increased 28.0% YOY, more than offsetting a 19.7% decline in export volumes. Dry whey export volumes have declined on a YOY basis for 24 consecutive months through May ’16. ’14-’15 annual U.S. dry whey commercial disappearance increased 0.4% YOY as a 24.6% increase in domestic demand more than offset an 18.0% decline in export demand. ’15-’16 YTD U.S. dry whey disappearance is up an additional 8.1% YOY throughout the first two thirds of the production season.
NFDM/SMP – Disappearance Increases on a YOY Basis for the First Time in Five Months
May ’16 U.S. NFDM/SMP commercial disappearance increased 16.3% MOM on a daily average basis while also increasing on a YOY basis for the first time in five months, finishing up 14.9%. U.S. NFDM/SMP domestic disappearance increased on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month during May ’16, finishing up 97.6%, while export volumes finished up 0.9% YOY. ’14-’15 annual U.S. NFDM/SMP commercial disappearance finished up 2.9% YOY as a 14.8% increase in domestic demand more than offset a 6.1% decline in export demand. ’15-’16 YTD U.S. NFDM/SMP disappearance remains down 1.1% YOY throughout the first two thirds of the production season, however, despite the most recent increase.
Fluid Milk Sales – Fat-Free Sales Continue to Weigh Down Overall Figures, Total Milk Sales Flat YOY
Apr ’16 U.S. fluid milk sales of 4.09 billion pounds finished up 0.5% MOM on a daily average basis and flat with the previous year figures. Fluid milk sales had declined over 33 of the past 35 months through March. Sales of whole milk remained strong, finishing up 5.4% YOY, while fat-free milk sales declined 10.5% YOY. ’14-’15 annual U.S. total fluid milk sales finished down 1.8% YOY to the lowest annual figure on record. Annual whole milk sales finished up 2.2% however annual fat-free milk sales declined 10.8% throughout the year. ’15-’16 YTD U.S. fluid milk sales are down at additional 1.0% YOY throughout the first seven months of the production season.
Overall, May ’16 YOY increases in domestic commercial disappearance were widespread as were YOY declines in international disappearance.