U.S. Livestock & Meat Trade Update – Aug ’16
Executive Summary
U.S. livestock and meat trade figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Jun ’16. Highlights from the updated report include:
• Net pork trade finished 9.4% higher on a YOY basis during Jun ’16, reaching an eight year high for the month of June.
• Net beef & veal trade remained negative for the sixth consecutive month during Jun ’16, despite import volumes declining on a YOY basis for the ninth consecutive month.
• Net broiler trade remained lower on a YOY basis for the 11th time in the past 12 months during Jun ’16, finishing 10.4% below the previous year and reaching a ten year low for the month of June.
Additional Report Details
Pork – Net Trade Finishes Higher on a YOY Basis for the Second Consecutive Month
According to USDA, Jun ’16 U.S. pork export volumes declined 2.8% MOM on a daily average basis from the 13 month high experienced during the previous month but remained higher on a YOY basis, finishing up 4.5%. Of the major export destinations, YOY increases in export volumes were led by combined shipments to Hong Kong, Taiwan and China (+109.6%), followed by shipments destined to Canada (+10.7%) and Japan (+1.1%). The YOY increases in shipments to China, Canada and Japan more than offset YOY declines in U.S. pork exports volumes destined to South Korea (-16.3%) and Mexico (-13.3%). U.S. pork export volumes destined to the aforementioned countries accounted for over 85% of all pork export volumes during Jun ’16.
U.S. pork import volumes declined on a YOY basis for the third time in the past four months during Jun ’16, finishing down 11.8%. The decline in pork imports, coupled with the increase in export volumes, resulted in Jun ’16 U.S. net pork trade finishing up 9.4% YOY to an eight year high for the month of June. ’14-’15 annual net pork trade finished down 10.0% to a new five year low, however ’15-’16 net pork trade has rebounded by 5.3% YOY throughout the first three quarters of the production season.
U.S. pork export volumes have strengthened considerably over the past 25 years, increasing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.2%, while U.S. pork imports have remained fairly flat, increasing at a CAGR of 0.3% over the same time period. ’13-’14 annual pork imports experienced much stronger growth, finishing 10.5% higher than the previous year, the largest YOY percentage gain in 11 years. Despite the increase in pork imports, ’13-’14 annual pork exports volumes remained over five times as large as import volumes. Pork export volumes remained over four times as large as import volumes throughout the ’14-’15 production season, despite declining to a five year low on an absolute basis.
Beef & Veal – Net Trade Remains Negative for the Sixth Consecutive Month
According to USDA, Jun ’16 U.S. beef & veal export volumes increased 0.4% MOM on a daily average basis to a 12 month high but finished slightly lower on a YOY basis, down 0.5%. Of the major export destinations, YOY increases in export volumes were led by shipments destined to Japan (+19.6%), followed by shipments destined to Mexico (+5.7%) and South Korea (+1.1%). The YOY increases were more than offset by declines in combined export volumes destined to Hong Kong, Taiwan and China (-28.2%) and Canada (-8.6%). U.S. beef & veal export volumes destined to the aforementioned countries accounted for over 85% of all beef & veal export volumes during Jun ’16.
Jun ’16 U.S. beef & veal import volumes remained lower on a YOY basis for the ninth consecutive month, finishing down 16.3%. Despite the YOY declines, beef & veal import volumes continue to exceed export volumes, resulting in Jun ’16 net beef & veal trade remaining negative for the sixth consecutive month.
’13-’14 annual U.S. beef & veal imports finished higher than annual U.S. beef & veal exports for the first time in four years. This trend continued into the ’14-’15 production season as annual imports increased to a ten year high and beef & veal net trade declined to an eight year low.
Chicken –Net Broiler Trade Declines on a YOY Basis for the 11th Time in the Past 12 Months
Jun ’16 U.S. broiler export volumes declined 7.4% MOM on a daily average basis while also remaining lower on a YOY basis, finishing 10.4% below the previous year. Broiler export volumes have declined on a YOY basis over 11 of the past 12 months through June. Broiler export volumes destined to Canada (-15.3%) and Hong Kong, Taiwan and China (-13.3%) declined on a YOY basis for the fourth and fifth consecutive months, respectively, while shipments to Mexico (-5.0%) declined on a YOY basis for the third time in the past four months.
U.S. broiler import volumes declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past 14 months during Jun ’16, finishing down 24.9%. Broiler import volumes remain at insignificant levels relative to export volumes, with Jun ’16 imports amounting to only 2.0% of export volumes. The YOY decline in broiler export volumes outpaced the YOY decline in import volumes, resulting in U.S. broiler net trade finishing 10.4% lower YOY, reaching a ten year low for the month of June. Net broiler trade declined 10.9% throughout the ’14-’15 production season and is down an additional 9.5% throughout the first three quarters of the ’15-’16 production season.
U.S. broiler export volumes have strengthened considerably over the past 25 years, increasing at a CAGR of 18.3%. U.S. broiler import volumes have increased at a CAGR of 21.6% over the same time period but remain significantly lower than export volumes on an absolute basis. ’13-’14 annual broiler exports volumes were over 60 times as large as import volumes. Broiler export volumes remained 54 times as large as import volumes throughout the ’14-’15 production season despite declining to a five year low on an absolute basis.
Combined net trade of U.S. pork, beef and broilers increased on a YOY basis for the sixth time in the past seven months during Jun ’16 as the decline in broiler net trade was more than offset by an increase in the net trade of pork and beef. Combined net trade of pork, beef and broilers had declined for 19 consecutive months from Apr ’14 – Oct ’15 and finished down 21.4% YOY throughout the ’14-’15 production season.
U.S. pork export volumes have strengthened considerably over the past 25 years, increasing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.2%, while U.S. pork imports have remained fairly flat, increasing at a CAGR of 0.3% over the same time period. ’13-’14 annual pork imports experienced much stronger growth, finishing 10.5% higher than the previous year, the largest YOY percentage gain in 11 years. Despite the increase in pork imports, ’13-’14 annual pork exports volumes remained over five times as large as import volumes. Pork export volumes remained over four times as large as import volumes throughout the ’14-’15 production season, despite declining to a five year low on an absolute basis.
Beef & Veal – Net Trade Remains Negative for the Sixth Consecutive Month
According to USDA, Jun ’16 U.S. beef & veal export volumes increased 0.4% MOM on a daily average basis to a 12 month high but finished slightly lower on a YOY basis, down 0.5%. Of the major export destinations, YOY increases in export volumes were led by shipments destined to Japan (+19.6%), followed by shipments destined to Mexico (+5.7%) and South Korea (+1.1%). The YOY increases were more than offset by declines in combined export volumes destined to Hong Kong, Taiwan and China (-28.2%) and Canada (-8.6%). U.S. beef & veal export volumes destined to the aforementioned countries accounted for over 85% of all beef & veal export volumes during Jun ’16.
Jun ’16 U.S. beef & veal import volumes remained lower on a YOY basis for the ninth consecutive month, finishing down 16.3%. Despite the YOY declines, beef & veal import volumes continue to exceed export volumes, resulting in Jun ’16 net beef & veal trade remaining negative for the sixth consecutive month.
’13-’14 annual U.S. beef & veal imports finished higher than annual U.S. beef & veal exports for the first time in four years. This trend continued into the ’14-’15 production season as annual imports increased to a ten year high and beef & veal net trade declined to an eight year low.
Chicken –Net Broiler Trade Declines on a YOY Basis for the 11th Time in the Past 12 Months
Jun ’16 U.S. broiler export volumes declined 7.4% MOM on a daily average basis while also remaining lower on a YOY basis, finishing 10.4% below the previous year. Broiler export volumes have declined on a YOY basis over 11 of the past 12 months through June. Broiler export volumes destined to Canada (-15.3%) and Hong Kong, Taiwan and China (-13.3%) declined on a YOY basis for the fourth and fifth consecutive months, respectively, while shipments to Mexico (-5.0%) declined on a YOY basis for the third time in the past four months.
U.S. broiler import volumes declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past 14 months during Jun ’16, finishing down 24.9%. Broiler import volumes remain at insignificant levels relative to export volumes, with Jun ’16 imports amounting to only 2.0% of export volumes. The YOY decline in broiler export volumes outpaced the YOY decline in import volumes, resulting in U.S. broiler net trade finishing 10.4% lower YOY, reaching a ten year low for the month of June. Net broiler trade declined 10.9% throughout the ’14-’15 production season and is down an additional 9.5% throughout the first three quarters of the ’15-’16 production season.
U.S. broiler export volumes have strengthened considerably over the past 25 years, increasing at a CAGR of 18.3%. U.S. broiler import volumes have increased at a CAGR of 21.6% over the same time period but remain significantly lower than export volumes on an absolute basis. ’13-’14 annual broiler exports volumes were over 60 times as large as import volumes. Broiler export volumes remained 54 times as large as import volumes throughout the ’14-’15 production season despite declining to a five year low on an absolute basis.
Combined net trade of U.S. pork, beef and broilers increased on a YOY basis for the sixth time in the past seven months during Jun ’16 as the decline in broiler net trade was more than offset by an increase in the net trade of pork and beef. Combined net trade of pork, beef and broilers had declined for 19 consecutive months from Apr ’14 – Oct ’15 and finished down 21.4% YOY throughout the ’14-’15 production season.