U.S. Milk Production Update – Jul ’16
Executive Summary
U.S. milk production figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Jul ’16. Highlights from the updated report include:
• U.S. milk production remained higher on a YOY basis for the 31st consecutive month during Jul ’16, finishing up 1.4%. The YOY growth rate was the third highest experienced in the past 12 months on a percentage basis.
• The U.S. dairy cow herd increased by 2,000 head throughout Jul ’16, finishing at the highest figure on record experienced over the past seven and a half years.
• U.S. milk per cow yields increased on a YOY basis for the ninth consecutive month during Jul ’16 as growth in Midwestern yields continued to remain strong while Western yields increased on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month.
Additional Report Details
According to USDA, Jul ’16 U.S. milk production was up 1.4% YOY, at 17.9 billion pounds, setting a new July production record. U.S. milk production has increased YOY for 31 consecutive months through July. Production continued to declined seasonally, finishing down 2.5% MOM on a daily average basis, however the MOM decline in production was less than the ten year average June – July seasonal decline of 3.1%. U.S. milk production typically reaches peak levels during the month of May before declining until seasonal lows are reached in October.
U.S. milk production remained significantly higher on a YOY basis throughout the final months of 2014, however production growth decelerated over the majority of 2015. The Jul ’16 YOY growth rate of 1.4% was the third highest experienced in the past 12 months but remained below the ’14-’15 annual growth rate of 1.9%.
YOY production gains on a percentage basis continue to be led by South Dakota (+5.9%), followed by Michigan (+4.5%) and Texas (+4.4%). California milk production declined YOY for the 19th consecutive month, finishing 0.8% lower, while production in Florida, Utah, Virginia and New Mexico also finished below the previous year.
Overall, the U.S. milk cow herd increased by 2,000 head during Jul ’16, finishing at the highest figure experienced in the past seven and a half years. The MOM increase in the milk cow herd occurred despite the Jun ’16 figure being revised higher by 2,000 head during the most recent report. The total U.S. milk cow herd currently stands at 9,332,000 head, which is 18,000 head more than July of last year.
The U.S. milk per cow yield increased YOY for the ninth consecutive month, finishing 1.2% higher than the previous year. Milk per cow yields continue to trend higher YOY in the Midwest while yields increased within the Western United States for the second consecutive month. Milk per cow yields increased by an average of 1.6% YOY within Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and Illinois and 0.7% YOY on average within California, Idaho, Washington and Oregon. The YOY increase in Western milk per cow yields was the largest experienced in the past 20 months.
MOM increases in the milk cow herd were experienced in Texas (+3,000 head), Idaho (+2,000 head) and Michigan (+1,000 head) while California, Washington, Vermont and Florida each experienced MOM declines of 1,000 head during Jul ’16.
YOY increases in milk cow herds continue to be led by Michigan (+11,000 head), followed by Texas (+9,000 head), Idaho (+9,000 head) and South Dakota (+8,000 head). New Mexico (-13,000 head) and California (-10,000 head) experienced the largest YOY reductions in their milk cow herds throughout the month.