Atten Babler Ethanol FX Indices – Dec ’16
The Atten Babler Commodities Ethanol Foreign Exchange (FX) Indices strengthened throughout Nov ’16 as the USD/Ethanol Producer FX Index increased to a six month high while the USD/Domestic Ethanol Importer FX Index finished at a nine month high throughout the month.
Global Ethanol Producers:
Major ethanol producers are led by the U.S., followed by Brazil, the EU-28, China, India and Canada.
The U.S. accounts for half of the USD/Ethanol Producer FX Index while Brazil accounts for over a quarter of the index.
USD/Ethanol Producer FX Index:
The USD/Ethanol Producer FX Index increased 2.5 points throughout Nov ’16, finishing at a six month high value of 23.6. The USD/Ethanol Producer FX Index has declined 2.5 points over the past six months but remains up 17.4 points since the beginning of 2014. A strong USD/Ethanol Producer FX Index reduces the competitiveness of U.S. ethanol relative to other major producing regions (represented in green in the Global Ethanol Producers chart), ultimately resulting in less foreign demand, all other factors being equal. USD appreciation against the Brazilian real has accounted for the majority of the gains since the beginning of 2014.
USD appreciation within the USD/Ethanol Producer FX Index during Nov ’16 was led by gains against the Brazilian real, followed by USD appreciation against the euro, Indian rupee, Chinese yuan renminbi and Canadian dollar.
U.S. Ethanol Export Destinations:
Major destinations for U.S. ethanol exports are led by Canada, followed by the Philippines, Brazil, the United Arab Emirates, Peru and Mexico.
Canada accounts for over a half of the USD/Domestic Ethanol Importer FX Index while the Philippines, Brazil, the United Arab Emirates, Peru and Mexico each account for between 5-10% of the index.
USD/Domestic Ethanol Importer FX Index:
The USD/Domestic Ethanol Importer FX Index increased 2.5 points during Nov ’16, finishing at a nine month high value of 14.8. The USD/Domestic Ethanol Importer FX Index has increased 3.3 points over the past six months and 23.3 points since the beginning of 2014. A strong USD/Domestic Ethanol Importer FX Index results in less purchasing power for the traditional buyers of U.S. ethanol (represented in red in the U.S. Ethanol Export Destinations chart), ultimately resulting in less foreign demand, all other factors being equal. USD appreciation against the Canadian dollar and the Brazilian real has accounted for the majority of the gains since the beginning of 2014.
USD appreciation within the USD/Domestic Ethanol Importer FX Index during Nov ’16 was led by gains against the Canadian dollar, followed by USD appreciation against the Brazilian real, Mexican peso, Philippine peso and Indian rupee.