EU-28/U.S. Powder Stocks Update – Feb ’17
EU-28 intervention stocks of skim milk powder (SMP) continue to weigh heavily on powder markets. The European Commission began to offer SMP intervention stocks up for sale during Dec ’16 via a tendering process however just 0.2% of the product offered was sold. Three additional tendering processes have taken place since however no product sold as bids too far from prevailing market prices were rejected. Currently, EU-28 SMP intervention stocks remain near 25 year high levels experienced during 2009. Coupled with private storage aid (PSA) SMP stocks and other privately held SMP stocks, total EU-28 SMP stocks are currently estimated to exceed one billion pounds, over four and a half times current U.S. stock levels.
When compared to 12-month rolling average production levels, total EU-28 SMP stocks are equivalent to approximately three and a half months of production, significantly higher than current U.S. SMP/NFDM stocks of just 1.2 months of production. The overhang of EU-28 SMP stocks is likely to continue to weigh on powder markets until demand is restored and stocks are drawn down.