New Zealand Milk Production Update – Feb ’17
Executive Summary
New Zealand milk production figures provided by Dairy Companies Association of New Zealand (DCANZ) were recently updated with values spanning through Jan ’17. Highlights from the updated report include:
The YOY decline in production volumes experienced during Jan ’17 was the smallest experienced throughout the past four months. Production levels have shown signs of improvement following unfavorable weather conditions exhibited throughout the peak production months. Wet weather experienced in particular throughout the North Island of New Zealand contributed to the significant declines in production experienced throughout October and November.
When regionally weighted by milk production, rainfall reached a ten year seasonal high during November prior to returning to near ten year average levels over more recent months.
Soil moisture deficits have also returned to near ten year average levels over recent months, up from the record lows experienced throughout November. Soil moisture deficits finished higher on a YOY basis throughout the North Island but remained at a three year low throughout the South Island.
New Zealand farmgate milk prices reached a nine year low during the ’15-’16 production season as concerns over a potential El Niño event mounted while global milk supplies expanded significantly, particularly from within the EU-28. The ’16-’17 farmgate milk price forecast has been revised higher a total of three times over the past six months, however, as a gradual rebalancing of global supply and demand continues to take place. The current ’16-’17 farmgate milk price forecast of $6.00/kgMS is 53.8% above ’15-’16 price levels and 7.8% above three year average prices.
New Zealand slaughter rates accelerated throughout the final months of the ’15-’16 production season, reaching record seasonal highs. Overall, ’15-’16 annual New Zealand cow & heifer slaughter rates finished up 3.2% YOY, reaching a record annual high. New Zealand cow & heifer slaughter rates have declined by 11.1% in total over the first seven months of the ’16-’17 production season, however, as an 18.9% decline in slaughter rates has been experienced throughout the past four months. New Zealand cow & heifer slaughter rates declined by 19.1% YOY during Dec ’16, reaching a three year seasonal low.
- New Zealand milk production volumes finished lower on a YOY basis for the fourth consecutive month during Jan ’17, declining by 0.7%. New Zealand milk production volumes finished at a four year low for the month of January however the YOY decline in production was the smallest experienced throughout the past four months.
- ’16-’17 New Zealand farmgate milk price projections were revised higher for the third time in the past four months during Nov ’16, increasing to a value of $6.00/kgMS. The current ’16-’17 farmgate milk price forecast is 53.8% above ’15-’16 price levels and 7.8% above three year average price levels.
- New Zealand cow & heifer slaughter rates reached a record annual high during the ’15-’16 production season but have declined by 11.1% on a YOY basis throughout the first seven months of the ’16-’17 production season. New Zealand cow & heifer slaughter rates declined by 19.1% YOY during Dec ’16, finishing at a three year seasonal low.
The YOY decline in production volumes experienced during Jan ’17 was the smallest experienced throughout the past four months. Production levels have shown signs of improvement following unfavorable weather conditions exhibited throughout the peak production months. Wet weather experienced in particular throughout the North Island of New Zealand contributed to the significant declines in production experienced throughout October and November.
When regionally weighted by milk production, rainfall reached a ten year seasonal high during November prior to returning to near ten year average levels over more recent months.
Soil moisture deficits have also returned to near ten year average levels over recent months, up from the record lows experienced throughout November. Soil moisture deficits finished higher on a YOY basis throughout the North Island but remained at a three year low throughout the South Island.
New Zealand farmgate milk prices reached a nine year low during the ’15-’16 production season as concerns over a potential El Niño event mounted while global milk supplies expanded significantly, particularly from within the EU-28. The ’16-’17 farmgate milk price forecast has been revised higher a total of three times over the past six months, however, as a gradual rebalancing of global supply and demand continues to take place. The current ’16-’17 farmgate milk price forecast of $6.00/kgMS is 53.8% above ’15-’16 price levels and 7.8% above three year average prices.
New Zealand slaughter rates accelerated throughout the final months of the ’15-’16 production season, reaching record seasonal highs. Overall, ’15-’16 annual New Zealand cow & heifer slaughter rates finished up 3.2% YOY, reaching a record annual high. New Zealand cow & heifer slaughter rates have declined by 11.1% in total over the first seven months of the ’16-’17 production season, however, as an 18.9% decline in slaughter rates has been experienced throughout the past four months. New Zealand cow & heifer slaughter rates declined by 19.1% YOY during Dec ’16, reaching a three year seasonal low.