EIA Drilling Productivity Report Update – Jan ’18
According to the EIA’s January Drilling Productivity Report, U.S. oil output is expected to continue to increase through the early months of 2018. The Drilling Productivity Report uses recent data on the total number of drilling rigs in operation, estimates of drilling productivity, and estimated changes in production from existing wells to provide estimated changes in oil production for the seven key regions shown below.
Jan ’18 production levels were revised 0.5% higher than previously forecasted and are expected to finish 100,000 barrels per day (bpd), or 1.6%, above Dec ’17 production levels. Feb ’18 production levels are expected to increase an additional 111,000 bpd, or 1.7%, from the Jan ’18 revised production levels to 6.55 million bpd, finishing at the highest figure on record. Feb ’18 production forecasts are expected to finish higher on a YOY basis for the 11th consecutive month, up 20.6% from the previous year levels.
The Feb ’18 projected MOM increase in oil production would be the 14th experienced in a row and the largest experienced throughout the past three months on an absolute basis.
Oil production is expected to remain strong within the Permian region (+2.7% MOM), while production is also expected to increase significantly MOM within the Eagle Ford (+1.2%) and Bakken (+0.7%) regions. The aforementioned regions accounted for over 85% of the total expected YOY gains in production during Feb ’18.
U.S. drilled-but-uncompleted (DUC) wells continue to set new highs since the figures began being compiled in Dec ’13. DUC wells have been drilled by producers, but have not yet been made ready for production. The Dec ’17 DUC wells figure of 7,493 finished 2.1% above the previous month, driven higher by a sharp increase in Permian DUC wells.
DUC wells, particularly in the Permian, Eagle Ford and Anadarko regions, will likely contribute to additional oil production heading into 2018.