Ethanol Rail Movements Update – Mar ’18
Dec ’17 ethanol rail movements of 22.9 million barrels increased 13.6% MOM on a daily average basis while also finishing up 11.9% YOY. Total ethanol rail movements finished 23.2% above historical average figures reported since the beginning of 2010.
Ethanol rail movements have finished higher on a YOY basis over ten of the past 12 months through Dec ’17. 2017 annual rail movements finished up 6.2%, reaching a record annual high.
12 month rolling average ethanol rail movements have ranged from 60% – 68% of monthly ethanol production, historically. Dec ’17 ethanol rail movements accounted for 66.6% of monthly production on a 12 month rolling average basis, rebounding from the six month low experienced during the previous month.
Ethanol rail movement figures are broken out by Petroleum Administration for Defense District (PADD) for both originating rail movements and destinations of shipments. The U.S. is regionally divided into five PADDs, which include the East Coast, Midwest, Gulf Coast, Rocky Mountain and West Coast.
Over 98% of rail movements originated in PADD 2 (Midwest) during Dec ’17, with the remaining volumes originating in PADD 3 (Gulf Coast) and PADD 4 (Rocky Mountains). Nearly 9.5 million barrels of ethanol rail movements were destined to PADD 1 (East Coast) during Dec ’17, leading all regional districts.
Ethanol rail movements destined to PADD 1 (East Coast) accounted for over 42% of the total shipments during Dec ’17. Combined shipments to PADD 1 (East Coast), PADD 3 (Gulf Coast) and PADD 5 (West Coast) consisted of over 90% of total ethanol rail movements, with minimal amounts being shipped to PADD 2 (Midwest), PADD 4 (Rocky Mountain) and Canada.
Ethanol rail movements destined to PADD 3 (Gulf Coast) reached a record monthly high throughout Dec ’17 on both an absolute basis and a market share of total rail movement basis. Dec ’17 ethanol rail movements destined to PADD 3 (Gulf Coast) finished 14.5% above the previous monthly record high experienced during May ’17.