U.S. Commercial Disappearance Update – May ’14
All Milk – YOY Commercial Disappearance Increases Continue
According to USDA, March ’14 U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products was up 1.8% YOY and 2.7% MOM on a daily average basis. March represented the tenth straight month of YOY increases in commercial disappearance for milk used in all products. The March ’14 YOY increase of 1.8% was the lowest in three months, partially due to significant decreases in butter and NFDM commercial disappearance, however YTD commercial disappearance remains strong as exports continue to reach new highs. ’13-’14 YTD commercial disappearance for milk used in all products is up 3.5% through the first half of the production season, on pace to be the largest annual increase in 20 years.
Butter – YOY Commercial Disappearance Declines on Higher Prices
March ’14 U.S. butter commercial disappearance declined 11.1% YOY, the largest YOY decline in 16 months. Significant increases in butter prices appear to have limited commercial usage. The March ’14 announced butter price was up 15.0% YOY, and is up 13.8% since the beginning of the year. ’13-’14 YTD butter commercial disappearance remains up 5.8%, putting additional pressure on historically tight butter stocks. U.S. butter stocks remain extremely low, with the April ’14 YOY decline in butter stocks being the largest in nearly three and a half years on a percentage basis.
NFDM – YOY Commercial Disappearance Declines on Higher Prices
March ’14 U.S. NFDM commercial disappearance declined 9.6% YOY, the largest YOY decline in eight months. Similarly to butter prices, NFDM prices appear to have limited commercial usage. The March ’14 announced NFDM price was up 37.4% YOY, and is up 7.0% since the beginning of the year. ’13-’14 YTD NFDM commercial disappearance has trended closely to last year throughout the first half of the production season prior to the significant March ’14 decline, and is down 0.2% overall. The decline in commercial use of NFDM is somewhat misleading since USDA does not include skim milk powder, the protein-standardized form of NFDM used for exports, in its commercial disappearance calculations.
Cheese – YOY Commercial Disappearance Increases Continue
March ’14 U.S. cheese commercial disappearance increased 4.0% YOY and 1.3% MOM on a daily average basis. Cheese commercial disappearance remains strong despite recent significant increases in cheese prices. The March ’14 announced cheddar cheese price was up 37.8% YOY, and is up 20.9% since the beginning of the year. ’13-’14 YTD cheese commercial disappearance is up 3.5%, putting additional pressure on tight cheese stocks. U.S. cheese stocks remain extremely low, with the March-April ’14 YOY declines in stocks being the largest in over 12 years. Growth in commercial use of other-than-American type cheese (up 5.1% YOY) was stronger than for American cheese types (up 2.2% YOY) for the fifth time in six months.
According to USDA, March ’14 U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products was up 1.8% YOY and 2.7% MOM on a daily average basis. March represented the tenth straight month of YOY increases in commercial disappearance for milk used in all products. The March ’14 YOY increase of 1.8% was the lowest in three months, partially due to significant decreases in butter and NFDM commercial disappearance, however YTD commercial disappearance remains strong as exports continue to reach new highs. ’13-’14 YTD commercial disappearance for milk used in all products is up 3.5% through the first half of the production season, on pace to be the largest annual increase in 20 years.
Butter – YOY Commercial Disappearance Declines on Higher Prices
March ’14 U.S. butter commercial disappearance declined 11.1% YOY, the largest YOY decline in 16 months. Significant increases in butter prices appear to have limited commercial usage. The March ’14 announced butter price was up 15.0% YOY, and is up 13.8% since the beginning of the year. ’13-’14 YTD butter commercial disappearance remains up 5.8%, putting additional pressure on historically tight butter stocks. U.S. butter stocks remain extremely low, with the April ’14 YOY decline in butter stocks being the largest in nearly three and a half years on a percentage basis.
NFDM – YOY Commercial Disappearance Declines on Higher Prices
March ’14 U.S. NFDM commercial disappearance declined 9.6% YOY, the largest YOY decline in eight months. Similarly to butter prices, NFDM prices appear to have limited commercial usage. The March ’14 announced NFDM price was up 37.4% YOY, and is up 7.0% since the beginning of the year. ’13-’14 YTD NFDM commercial disappearance has trended closely to last year throughout the first half of the production season prior to the significant March ’14 decline, and is down 0.2% overall. The decline in commercial use of NFDM is somewhat misleading since USDA does not include skim milk powder, the protein-standardized form of NFDM used for exports, in its commercial disappearance calculations.
Cheese – YOY Commercial Disappearance Increases Continue
March ’14 U.S. cheese commercial disappearance increased 4.0% YOY and 1.3% MOM on a daily average basis. Cheese commercial disappearance remains strong despite recent significant increases in cheese prices. The March ’14 announced cheddar cheese price was up 37.8% YOY, and is up 20.9% since the beginning of the year. ’13-’14 YTD cheese commercial disappearance is up 3.5%, putting additional pressure on tight cheese stocks. U.S. cheese stocks remain extremely low, with the March-April ’14 YOY declines in stocks being the largest in over 12 years. Growth in commercial use of other-than-American type cheese (up 5.1% YOY) was stronger than for American cheese types (up 2.2% YOY) for the fifth time in six months.