May New Zealand Milk Production Up 24.0% YOY –…
According to Dairy Companies Association of New Zealand (DCANZ), May ’14 New Zealand milk production continued the recent trend of production growth, increasing 24.0% YOY. YOY milk production gains have accelerated over the past three months, up 26.0% YOY over the period, as adverse weather conditions reduced production last spring. May ’14 New Zealand production was 3.2% higher than the three year average May production and 18.3% higher than the five year average May production.
The ’13-’14 New Zealand production season finished up 9.4% YOY, considerably higher than the five year compound annual growth rate of 5.1%. Annual production increased to a record high 21.3 million MT, the equivalent of approximately 47.0 billion lbs or 23.2% of U.S. milk production over the same period. Future YOY gains are expected to moderate, but remain strong. According to the Fonterra July Global Dairy Update, milk collections across New Zealand were up 10.1% in Jun ’14. North Island collections were up 12.9% YOY in Jun ’14 as more farmers continued to milk into their winter season compared to the previous year. South Island collections were up a mere 1.6% YOY as only a small number of South Island farmers provide milk in winter for New Zealand’s internal supply.
Looking ahead to the ’14-’15 production season, New Zealand’s Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) forecasts production to increase modestly by 2.3%, a result of a continued long-term trend in increasing cow numbers and more moderate growth in milk yield per cow, which is expected to ease back to its long-term average. MPI forecasts a 2.0% increase in herd size, from 5.0 million head to 5.1 million head, and a 0.3% increase in milk yield per cow.
New Zealand milk production typically peaks in October and gradually declines until seasonal lows are reached in the summer months. Over the past five years, May – July production has accounted for less than 5.0% of total milk produced. Meaningful production data will be limited until anecdotal information of August production figures is released throughout August and September. Fonterra will release August collection figures in early October and official DCANZ data will become available in the middle of October.