EIA Drilling Productivity Report Update – Aug ’19
According to the EIA’s August Drilling Productivity Report, U.S. oil output is expected to continue to increase through Sep ’18. The Drilling Productivity Report uses recent data on the total number of drilling rigs in operation, estimates of drilling productivity, and estimated changes in production from existing wells to provide estimated changes in oil production for the seven key regions shown below.
Aug ’19 production levels were revised 137,000 barrels per day (bpd), or 1.6%, above levels previously forecasted while finishing 63,000 bpd, or 0.7%, above Jul ’19 production levels. Sep ’19 production levels are expected to increase an additional 86,000 bpd, or 1.0%, from the Aug ’19 revised production levels to 8.77 million bpd, finishing at the highest figure on record. Sep ’19 production forecasts are expected to finish higher on a YOY basis for the 30th consecutive month, up 11.7% from the previous year levels. The YOY increase in production forecasts finished as the smallest experienced throughout the past two years, however.
The Sep ’19 projected MOM increase in oil production would be the 18th experienced in the past 20 months and the largest experienced throughout the past five months on an absolute basis.
Oil production is expected to remain strong within the Permian region (+1.7% MOM), while production is also expected to continue to increase significantly on a MOM basis within the Niobrara (+1.6%) region. The aforementioned regions accounted for over 100% of the total expected YOY gains in production during Sep ’19.
U.S. drilled-but-uncompleted (DUC) wells continued to decline from the Feb ’19 record highs, however, finishing lower for the fifth consecutive month. DUC wells, which have been drilled by producers but have not yet been made ready for production, have been compiled since Dec ’13. The Jul ’19 DUC wells figure of 8,108 finished 1.2% below the previous month, reaching a seven month low level, despite a continued increase in Permian DUC wells.
Permian DUC wells increased nine from the previous month, reaching a record high level, however DUC wells within all other regions declined by 109 throughout the month. Anadarko DUC wells declined most significantly from the previous month, followed by Niobrara DUC wells.
Aug ’19 production levels were revised 137,000 barrels per day (bpd), or 1.6%, above levels previously forecasted while finishing 63,000 bpd, or 0.7%, above Jul ’19 production levels. Sep ’19 production levels are expected to increase an additional 86,000 bpd, or 1.0%, from the Aug ’19 revised production levels to 8.77 million bpd, finishing at the highest figure on record. Sep ’19 production forecasts are expected to finish higher on a YOY basis for the 30th consecutive month, up 11.7% from the previous year levels. The YOY increase in production forecasts finished as the smallest experienced throughout the past two years, however.
The Sep ’19 projected MOM increase in oil production would be the 18th experienced in the past 20 months and the largest experienced throughout the past five months on an absolute basis.
Oil production is expected to remain strong within the Permian region (+1.7% MOM), while production is also expected to continue to increase significantly on a MOM basis within the Niobrara (+1.6%) region. The aforementioned regions accounted for over 100% of the total expected YOY gains in production during Sep ’19.
U.S. drilled-but-uncompleted (DUC) wells continued to decline from the Feb ’19 record highs, however, finishing lower for the fifth consecutive month. DUC wells, which have been drilled by producers but have not yet been made ready for production, have been compiled since Dec ’13. The Jul ’19 DUC wells figure of 8,108 finished 1.2% below the previous month, reaching a seven month low level, despite a continued increase in Permian DUC wells.
Permian DUC wells increased nine from the previous month, reaching a record high level, however DUC wells within all other regions declined by 109 throughout the month. Anadarko DUC wells declined most significantly from the previous month, followed by Niobrara DUC wells.