March ’13 USDA March Intentions Report
March ’13 USDA Planting Intentions Report
- Corn – Neutral
- The acreage projection of 97.3 million acres planted was on pace with the average private estimate.
- Yield is estimated below trend line because of the addition of less productive land moving into corn production in peripheral corn-belt states.
- Feed and residual usage is expected to recover next year if yield and supplies rebound.
- Ethanol production would also be expected to increase with a rising ethanol mandate and greater availability of corn feedstock.
- Exports would be expected to rebound towards the 5 year average.
- The projected ending stocks would be projected at the highest level in nearly 10 years at over 2 billion bushels.
- Soybeans – Neutral
- The acreage projection of 77.1 million acres planted was below the 78.3 million acres average private estimate and similar to the 77.2 million planted last year.
- Yields are estimated at trend line while demand is expected to improve slightly with the expectation the lower prices boost demand and inventory building in China.
- In either case, the balance sheet for 13/14 is projected to loosen but remains prone to weather risks.
- Wheat – Neutral
- The acreage projection of 56.4 million acres was on pace with the average private estimate.
- High acreage abandonment in the wheat producing state of Kansas is expected on dry land areas as drought conditions persisted through winter months. Yields are also expected to weaken due to similar conditions pushing total production lower.
- Total use is expected to remain comparable to the current market year with less overall feed wheat but stronger exports.
- Ending stocks are estimated at a fairly comfortable 663 million bushels.