June ’13 USDA Grain Stocks Report

Corn – Bullish Old Crop
- Projections of 2.76 billion were below expectations with average trade estimates near 2.86 billion bushels.
- The per animal unit feed consumption implied takeaway of about 14.0 equivalent bushels per animal unit in the quarter versus the prior five year average of 13.7.
- If combined with the December and March stocks report, the per animal unit feed consumption implied takeaway of about 55.2 equivalent bushels per animal unit versus the prior five year average of 59.0.
- Given the slow pace of exports and pace of some ethanol production to date, ending stocks should be projected to come in between 650 and 750 million bushels.
Soybeans – Neutral
- Projections were near expectations at 435 million bushels versus average estimates of 441 million and last year came in at 667 million.
- This is an extremely tight 3^rd quarter balance and with a large harvest of new crop beans expected there is likely to be an extreme price spread between old and new crop domestic soybeans and soybean meal come September and October.
Wheat – Neutral
- Projections were below expectations with 718 million bushels compared to average estimates of 750 million and 713 million last year.
- Higher than expected wheat feeding reduced stocks but overall this is a fairly insignificant report for wheat.