U.S. Livestock Cold Storage Update – Jun ’15
Pork – Stocks Decline Seasonally but Remain 13.5% Higher YOY
According to USDA, May ’15 U.S. frozen pork stocks of 653.6 million pounds declined 6.8% MOM but remained up 13.5% YOY. Pork stocks have increased YOY for four month in a row after 11 consecutive months of YOY declines were experienced from Mar ’14 – Jan ’15. Ending stocks for the month of May were the second largest figure on record, trailing only the May ’13 volumes. The April – May seasonal decline in pork stocks of 47.4 million pounds, or 6.8%, was only slightly larger than the ten year average April – May seasonal decline of 35.5 million pounds, or 6.0%. May ’15 pork stocks finished 4.8% higher than the three year average May pork stocks.
Beef – YOY Increase in Stocks Largest in Eight and a Half Years on Percentage Basis
May ’15 U.S. frozen beef stocks of 468.6 million pounds declined 3.2% MOM but remained up 24.1% YOY. The monthly YOY increase in beef stocks was the sixth in a row after nine consecutive months of YOY declines were experienced from Mar ’14 – Nov ’14. The YOY increase in stocks was the largest experienced in over eight and a half years on a percentage basis while ending stocks for the month of May were the third largest figure on record, trailing only the 2012 and 2013 volumes. The April – May decline in beef stocks of 15.7 million pounds, or 3.2% was approximately twice the ten year average April – May seasonal decline of 7.5 million pounds, or 1.7%. May ’15 beef stocks finished 3.5% higher than the three year average May beef stocks.
Chicken – Stocks Remain Significantly Higher on YOY Basis, Finish up 20.6%
May ’15 U.S. frozen chicken stocks of 738.3 million pounds declined 3.6% MOM from the four year high experienced in Apr ‘15 but remained up 20.6% YOY. Chicken stocks increased YOY for the sixth month in a row after nine consecutive months of YOY declines were experienced from Mar ’14 – Nov ’14. Stocks have built as the Russian import ban continues to negatively affect U.S. broiler exports. U.S. broiler export volumes have declined by 5.5% YOY since the ban was announced, although May ’15 export volumes increased slightly YOY. May ’15 chicken stocks finished 13.7% higher than the three year average May chicken stocks.
Overall, combined May ’15 U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks declined 4.6% from the previous record high experienced in Apr ’15, but remained at the 98th percentile of historical monthly figures. Individually, May ’15 U.S. pork and beef stocks finished at or above approximately 90% of historical maximum storage levels, while U.S. chicken stocks were also relatively high, finishing at approximately 80% of historical maximum storage levels.
On a seasonal basis, combined May ’15 pork, beef and chicken stocks set a new May record high. Individually, May ’15 U.S. pork and beef stocks finished near record levels while U.S. chicken stocks were near 90% of historical maximum storage levels for the month of May.
According to USDA, May ’15 U.S. frozen pork stocks of 653.6 million pounds declined 6.8% MOM but remained up 13.5% YOY. Pork stocks have increased YOY for four month in a row after 11 consecutive months of YOY declines were experienced from Mar ’14 – Jan ’15. Ending stocks for the month of May were the second largest figure on record, trailing only the May ’13 volumes. The April – May seasonal decline in pork stocks of 47.4 million pounds, or 6.8%, was only slightly larger than the ten year average April – May seasonal decline of 35.5 million pounds, or 6.0%. May ’15 pork stocks finished 4.8% higher than the three year average May pork stocks.
Beef – YOY Increase in Stocks Largest in Eight and a Half Years on Percentage Basis
May ’15 U.S. frozen beef stocks of 468.6 million pounds declined 3.2% MOM but remained up 24.1% YOY. The monthly YOY increase in beef stocks was the sixth in a row after nine consecutive months of YOY declines were experienced from Mar ’14 – Nov ’14. The YOY increase in stocks was the largest experienced in over eight and a half years on a percentage basis while ending stocks for the month of May were the third largest figure on record, trailing only the 2012 and 2013 volumes. The April – May decline in beef stocks of 15.7 million pounds, or 3.2% was approximately twice the ten year average April – May seasonal decline of 7.5 million pounds, or 1.7%. May ’15 beef stocks finished 3.5% higher than the three year average May beef stocks.
Chicken – Stocks Remain Significantly Higher on YOY Basis, Finish up 20.6%
May ’15 U.S. frozen chicken stocks of 738.3 million pounds declined 3.6% MOM from the four year high experienced in Apr ‘15 but remained up 20.6% YOY. Chicken stocks increased YOY for the sixth month in a row after nine consecutive months of YOY declines were experienced from Mar ’14 – Nov ’14. Stocks have built as the Russian import ban continues to negatively affect U.S. broiler exports. U.S. broiler export volumes have declined by 5.5% YOY since the ban was announced, although May ’15 export volumes increased slightly YOY. May ’15 chicken stocks finished 13.7% higher than the three year average May chicken stocks.
Overall, combined May ’15 U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks declined 4.6% from the previous record high experienced in Apr ’15, but remained at the 98th percentile of historical monthly figures. Individually, May ’15 U.S. pork and beef stocks finished at or above approximately 90% of historical maximum storage levels, while U.S. chicken stocks were also relatively high, finishing at approximately 80% of historical maximum storage levels.
On a seasonal basis, combined May ’15 pork, beef and chicken stocks set a new May record high. Individually, May ’15 U.S. pork and beef stocks finished near record levels while U.S. chicken stocks were near 90% of historical maximum storage levels for the month of May.